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Claude Sonnet 5Sep 29, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Short answer: Documented, prosecuted voter fraud is extremely rare, but it does happen, and there's a significant gap between public perception and empirical evidence.

What the research shows

Multiple independent studies across decades have reached similar conclusions. Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.

Some specific findings:

•In-person impersonation fraud (the type voter ID laws target) is essentially nonexistent. A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast, and even that small number was likely inflated.
•Mail/absentee voting fraud is also very low. Researchers at the Brookings Institution examined cases of fraud reported during elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 and estimated there were about four cases of fraud for every 10 million mail ballots cast, on average.
•Even using the most fraud-friendly database available — compiled by the conservative Heritage Foundation — the numbers are tiny relative to total votes. Heritage's "Election Fraud Database" found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 convictions, with 20 cases brought in 2024. When measured against actual turnout, over the 25 years covering the bulk of the cases cited by Heritage, there were 36 elections held, and in Arizona that meant around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases of fraud in total.
•Noncitizen voting, a frequently cited concern, is also rare in documented cases. For example, in Washington state, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025, or about 0.000006% of ballots cast. Notably, when errors do occur, they're often administrative rather than intentional fraud — New Jersey's governor announced that about 6,600 people who identified as noncitizens were erroneously registered to vote in 2023 and 2024 due to a software error, and a preliminary analysis showed fewer than 400 of those people actually voted.

Why fraud numbers appear larger than they are

Many "fraud" allegations turn out to be something else entirely. Many perceived instances of voter fraud are simply clerical errors — reports of a dead citizen voting turned out to simply be a check mark next to the wrong name, errors in registration records, and other simple human errors. Similarly, a study by a Columbia University political scientist tracking incidence rates for two years found that the rare fraud that was reported generally could be traced to "false claims by the loser of a close race, mischief and administrative or voter error."

The perception gap

Despite this consistent evidence, public belief often diverges from the data. Belief in widespread fraud remains common among the public even as empirical studies find it rare; survey research in 2024 documents persistent public concern despite decades of research showing no significant scale of fraud.

Bottom line

Isolated cases of fraud do occur every election cycle — false registrations, double voting, absentee ballot schemes — and election officials continue to prosecute these when found. But the evidence does not support claims of widespread or systemic fraud large enough to alter election outcomes. The debate today is less about whether any fraud exists (virtually no serious researcher claims zero) and more about whether it's frequent enough to justify policies like stricter voter ID laws, which is a separate political question from the fraud rate itself.

Citations (10)

  1. 1arxiv.orgAcademic
    American Views About Election Fraud in 2024

    Source excerpt: “### 1 Introduction Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contempora...”

  2. 2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice

    Source excerpt: “A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 b...”

  3. 3sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine

    Source excerpt: “Researchers at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan think tank, examined cases of fraud reported during elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 an...”

  4. 4newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
    Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek

    Source excerpt: “Heritage laid out cases in every state, creating the "Election Fraud Database," which found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in ...”

  5. 5newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
    Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek

    Source excerpt: “The Brookings report noted that over the 25 years covering the bulk of the cases cited by Heritage, there were 36 elections held. In the case of Arizo...”

  6. 6sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine

    Source excerpt: “In Washington state, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025, or about 0.000006% ballots cast, according to the secr...”

  7. 7sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine

    Source excerpt: “In July, for example, New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill announced that about 6,600 people who identified as noncitizens were erroneously registered t...”

  8. 8msu.eduAcademic
    The Truth About Voter Fraud

    Source excerpt: “They argue that many perceived instances of voter fraud are simply clerical errors: either errors of poll books (e.g. reports of a dead citizen voting...”

  9. 9brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice

    Source excerpt: “Even this tiny number is likely inflated, as the study’s author counted ... A study published by a Columbia University political scientist tracked in...”

  10. 10factually.coLow provenance
    What’s the actual percentage of voter fraud in the Uni...

    Source excerpt: “Belief in widespread fraud remains common among the public even as empirical studies find it rare; survey research in 2024 documents persistent public...”