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Muse Spark 1.2Sep 29, 2026meta/muse-spark-1.2-20260805

What is the current state of US politics?

I'll gather the latest picture of US politics for you.

As of late September 2026, U.S. politics is dominated by a Republican-controlled federal government heading into the 2026 midterm elections, with low approval for both the President and Congress, high polarization, and economic concerns topping voter priorities.

1. Executive Branch - Second Trump Administration

The United States is in the second year of President Donald Trump's second, non-consecutive term. He was inaugurated January 20, 2025 as the 47th President, with JD Vance serving as Vice President and President of the Senate.

The administration has pursued an assertive use of executive power. On September 26, 2026 the White House informed congressional leaders that the president is unilaterally canceling nearly $1 billion in what it calls "harmful government spending" — funding that Congress previously approved — described by the Office of Management and Budget as focused on "the most harmful government spending"and in media reports as targeting immigrant services and diversity-focused initiatives.

President Trump's job approval has fallen to historic lows in September 2026 polling:

•A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 17-20 found Trump's approval at 32% among all Americans, a low point in Reuters/Ipsos polling across his first and second presidencies. The same poll described it as its lowest level of his political career.
•Another aggregated poll found Donald Trump's approval at 34%, while 54% disapprove.
•Among Republicans, approval of Trump's overall job performance declined from 86% in January 2026 to 73% in the September 17-20 survey, with approval of his handling of the U.S. economy falling from 80% to 56%.

Polling averages show Trump underwater on major voter concerns like inflation and the economy, and negative views on foreign policy have risen during the Iran conflict. On specific economic handling, a Marquette Law School survey September 2-9 found overall Trump approval at 37%, but only 28% for the economy, 20% for gas prices and 19% for inflation and the cost of living.

2. Legislative Branch - 119th Congress

The 119th United States Congress has been in session since January 3, 2025 – present.

Heading into the 2026 general elections, Republicans control both chambers of Congress:

•Senate: Republicans hold a 53–45 majority in the Senate, while two independents caucus with the Democrats, effectively giving the Democrats 47 votes for organizational purposes. The Senate majority is listed as Republican, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) and Senate President JD Vance (R) since January 20, 2025.
•House: Republicans have a 218-212 majority, with four vacancies. One member, Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-Calif.), caucuses with the Republicans, effectively giving Republicans 219 votes for organizational purposes.

Congressional approval is very low. A Unite America/RealClear Opinion Research poll found U.S. Congress' approval at 17%, while 59% disapprove.

Legislative activity in 2026 has been marked by gridlock and funding fights:

•The partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) from February 14 to April 30, 2026, lasted 76 days and became the longest funding lapse for a single federal department in U.S. history, stemming from a partisan standoff over immigration enforcement reforms following the January 2026 killing of Alex Pretti by Customs and Border Protection agents.
•Congress has eliminated the threat of a government shutdown this fall. The House passed a bill to extend government funding to December 11, clearing a path to avert a shutdown ahead of the midterm elections. President Trump signed H.R. 6500, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, into law on September 2, continuing funding for federal agencies through December 11, 2026.

3. The 2026 Midterms - Central Focus

All of national politics is currently oriented toward the midterm elections on November 3, 2026. All 435 districts in the U.S. House and 33 seats in the Senate are up for election, plus two special Senate elections to fill the last two years of terms vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Vice President J.D. Vance (R-Ohio).

Control thresholds:

•In the Senate, Democrats need to gain a net of four seats to win a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than two seats to retain a majority.
•In the House, Democrats need to gain a net of three districts to win a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than two districts and retain a majority.

Current polling favors Democrats on the generic ballot heading into spring and fall 2026, despite Democrats' own weak favorability:

•An Emerson College Polling national survey 40 days from the midterms found congressional Democrats with an 11-point lead over congressional Republicans on the generic ballot, 53% to 42%.
•Other polling averages reported Democrats between seven and eight points ahead in the generic ballot as of September 27.

Republicans in Congress are distancing themselves from President Trump and scrambling to show they are working to address the high cost of living, with reports noting concern that failure to do so may cost them their majorities in November.

4. Public Mood and Top Issues

Economy and Cost of Living dominant: Across recent national polls, economic concerns dominate. Prices/inflation was cited as a top-three issue for 53% of voters and jobs/economy at 39%, and a plurality say Trump's economic policy is making the economy worse. The cost of living dominates voters' concerns as of late September.

Trust in elections: Americans are heading into the 2026 midterms with widespread uncertainty about election integrity. When asked whether they expect the November 2026 elections to be free and fair, just 49% of voters said yes in a UC San Diego survey conducted September 1-9, 2026.

Polarization: The Senate has been described as a focal point of intense political polarization this week as lawmakers clashed over the Trump administration's foreign policy agenda, artificial intelligence regulations, and pending judicial nominations.

5. Overall Character

The current state can be summarized as:

•Unified but narrow Republican government - controlling White House, Senate (53-47) and House (218-212) - facing a historically difficult midterm environment for the party in power.
•Historically low approval for both the President (low 30s) and Congress (17% approval).
•High-stakes, high-polarization legislative environment with recent shutdowns, use of rare executive rescission powers to cut congressionally approved spending, and a short-term funding patch until December 11.
•An electorate focused on inflation, affordability, immigration enforcement, and foreign policy, and pessimistic about the country's direction, with a majority saying the country is on the wrong track in late September polling.

Citations (1)

  1. 1ballotpedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.89
    United States Congress elections, 2026

    Backs: “The Senate majority is listed as Republican, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) and Senate President JD Vance (R) since January 20, 2025. House: Republicans have a 218-212 majority, with four vacancies.”