Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Will halting immigration trigger labor shortages? I'll pull current research on workforce gaps and immigration's role.

Yes, according to most economic research - stopping immigration entirely would very likely cause and worsen labor shortages in the United States, especially over the medium to long term.

1. The U.S. labor force now depends on immigration for growth

Because the native-born population is aging and fertility is below replacement, immigration is becoming the primary mechanism keeping population and labor force growing. As one analysis put it: "Without it, the U.S. will not just be facing a tighter labor market, but a shrinking one".

Under a zero-immigration scenario where immigration stopped for the next two decades, the U.S. working-age population would shrink 11% by 2040. Under a low-immigration scenario it would remain relatively flat.

2. Projected size of the shortage if immigration is stopped/restricted

The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) estimates:

> "The Trump administration’s policies on illegal and legal immigration would reduce the projected number of workers in the United States by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035 and lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one third"

Other estimates cited in the literature include:

Research also notes that "Reduced immigration contributes to labor shortages, driving inflationary pressures as the supply of immigrant-dependent goods and services shrinks". Tightened immigration controls are directly linked to growing labor shortages in key sectors.

The effect is already visible. The Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey shows a decline of more than 1.4 million foreign-born workers compared to expected growth, and hiring slowed to about 29,000 monthly jobs in mid-2025.

3. Which sectors would be hit first and hardest

Shortages are not uniform. They are concentrated in sectors that rely heavily on immigrant workers, including:

The Labor Department itself said the "near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens combined with the lack of an available legal workforce... results in significant disruptions to production costs and (threatens) the stability of domestic food production".

4. Would native-born workers fill the gap?

Proponents of restrictions argue that fewer immigrants means more jobs and higher wages for native-born workers. The economic literature largely does not support that:

A minority view cited in press coverage says: "economists say they don’t anticipate widespread economic reverberations including labor shortages... This is out of a labor force of nearly 170 million people". This view generally assumes automation, higher wages drawing more native workers into the labor force, or offshoring could offset some losses, at least in the short term.

In practice, research finds firms facing sudden labor shortages scaled back operations, delayed projects, and cut headcount - including for native-born workers - rather than simply hiring natives at higher pay.

5. Short term vs. Long term

> Halting immigration slows growth rates and attenuates opportunity for native-born workers, widespread deportations are actively contractionary and lead to native-born job losses and supply chain snarls.

In short, because the U.S. economy has relied on immigrants for most of its recent workforce growth, a complete stop would not just tighten the labor market temporarily - it would cause a measurable and growing shortfall of workers, concentrated in physically demanding, lower-wage and high-skill healthcare jobs that have persistent recruitment difficulties.