The political climate is evolving quickly — I'll gather the latest assessments of the key threats facing the US.
In today's U.S. political climate, researchers, polling, and monitoring organizations identify several overlapping threats:
1. Rise in Political Violence and Threats
Data from multiple monitoring systems indicates political violence is back on the rise after fluctuations following 2020-2021.
•2025 saw a "serious escalation in the risk environment, from high-profile assassinations to aggressive federal immigration operations"
•Incidents of targeted violence rose by at least 34 percent. Threats against public officials spiked, with a 58 percent increase for members of Congress alone
•High-profile incidents cited ahead of the 2026 midterms include the June killing of Minnesota state legislator Melissa Hortman, the September shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, and reported threats against Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, as well as the arson at Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's residence, the killing of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington D.C., and the assassination of Charlie Kirk
•U.S. Capitol Police reported an increase in "threat assessment cases" against members of Congress for the third year in a row
•The U.S. Marshals Service documented more than 560 threats against judges in the 2025 fiscal year, up 10 percent from the previous fiscal year
Research shows election years are often linked to even greater risks of violence, including attacks on politicians and acts of intimidation at polling places.
2. Deep Polarization and Social Division
•60% of Americans see the other party as a threat to democracy
•A July analysis characterized US politics as deeply polarized, with opposing camps viewing each other as enemies and — when it suits their interests — justifying actions that undermine democracy
•Academic analysis identifies four social and political situations that have consistently threatened democratic institutions: political polarization, conflict over who belongs in the political community, high and rising economic inequality, and executive aggrandizement
•Researchers note today's deep political polarization, race- and gender-based tensions, soaring economic inequality and expanded executive capacity have converged for the first time in American history
Effects of polarization include the emotional devaluation of those who think differently (affective polarization), the rise of populist movements, increasing fragmentation of social discourse, and a decline in trust in democratic institutions.
3. Concerns About Weakening Democracy and Institutional Trust
•Two-thirds of Americans (67%) say weakening democracy in the United States poses a critical threat to vital US interests in the next 10 years, more than any other threat presented
•In a 2024 survey, Americans were most likely to say weakening democracy poses a critical threat (67%), but they also expressed concern about foreign interference (54%) and political violence (49%) around the presidential election
•The health of US democracy has declined over the last decade owing in part to growing political polarization, distrust of elected officials and public institutions, and the proliferation of misinformation online
Views on what constitutes the threat differ by party:
•Democrats and Independents are most likely to say weakening democracy poses a critical threat (75% and 64% respectively), while Republicans are most likely to consider large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the country a critical threat (83%)
4. Election Integrity and Governance Concerns
Gallup polling ahead of the 2026 midterms (23,000+ adults, April-June 2026) found multifaceted concerns:
•Top concerns include political leaders pressuring election officials to change election outcomes (67% concerned a great deal or fair amount), ballots not being properly handled, counted or secured (57%), and voter intimidation near polling places (52%)
•Broader concerns include political leaders taking actions they know may be illegal (80%), wealthy people or organizations making large, anonymous donations to political causes (78%), and gerrymandering, or changing voting district boundaries to favor a political party (77%)
•Concerns extend beyond the electoral process to political accountability, fairness and the integrity of public institutions
•Majorities are also concerned about peaceful protestors being harmed by federal agents or law enforcement and about ineligible people casting ballots, with a sharp partisan divide: 78% of Republicans vs. 36% of Democrats concerned about ineligible voting, and 85% of Democrats vs. 38% of Republicans concerned about people being harmed during peaceful protests
5. Misinformation, Media Environment, and Pressure on Institutions
•Hostility toward the press has become normalised across the political spectrum, with both right-wing and left-wing movements capable of translating online polarisation into tangible harm
•The proliferation of misinformation is cited as eroding trust in institutions and contributing to polarization
•Federal judges are described as operating in an "increasingly hostile landscape of threats, harassment and intimidation" amid deepening political divisions and the spread of social media
6. Operational Risks for 2026
Monitors warn that cuts to federal support for research and agencies that track political violence and support election security — including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships, and academic datasets like START's Terrorism and Targeted Violence dataset — could reduce early-warning capacity at a time when demand for de-escalation support is at its highest point in over a decade and .