Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Will cutting immigration leave jobs unfilled? I'll explore the evidence on labor supply risks.

According to most economic research and recent labor market data, stopping immigration would likely cause or worsen labor shortages in the United States.

Consensus: Yes - With Caveats

Recent analysis links tightened immigration controls directly to shortages:

> Tightened immigration controls are directly linked to growing labor shortages in key sectors of the U.S. economy
> Reduced immigration contributes to labor shortages, driving inflationary pressures as the supply of immigrant-dependent goods and services shrinks

The U.S. Department of Labor itself said in an Oct. 2 Federal Register filing:

> "The near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens combined with the lack of an available legal workforce,'' ... "results in significant disruptions to production costs and (threatens) the stability of domestic food production and prices for U.S consumers.''

Why The U.S. Is Vulnerable

1.Demographics - Without immigration, the workforce shrinks

Immigrants are more likely to be of prime working age than native-born Americans.

•"Without it, the U.S. will not just be facing a tighter labor market, but a shrinking one."

•"without the immigration surge of 2022 to 2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking."

•The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that without immigration, the U.S. working-age population would have started shrinking in 2012, not 2025

Immigrants accounted for 84.7% of labor force growth since 2019.

2.Sector Dependence

Labor shortages are growing in sectors that rely heavily on immigrant workers, including agriculture, construction, food service, healthcare, and transportation

More specifically:

•Agriculture: Fewer workers for planting and harvesting crops

•Construction: Delays and higher costs for building projects

•Other affected sectors include healthcare, hospitality, logistics, transport

Immigrant workers comprise 25% of construction labor, 66% of agriculture workers, and 15–28% of healthcare staff.

3.Projected Scale of Impact

•Analysis estimates restrictions on both legal and illegal immigration have reduced the labor force by an estimated 6.8 million workers by 2028

•Brookings models say a sudden plunge in immigration will dampen employment, GDP, and push sustainable monthly job growth well below historical norms—perhaps to 20,000–50,000 or even negative territory

•A Brookings Institution analysis put the total number of jobs eliminated by enforcement at 668,000, of which an estimated 51,000-297,000 would have been held by American-born workers

Why Stopping Immigration Does Not Automatically Help Native-Born Workers

Proponents of restrictions argue that strict policies protect American workers, reduce pressure on public services, and improve national security.

However, economic research finds:

> Arguments in favor of stringent immigration—that less immigration will mean more opportunities for native-born workers—rely on the faulty premise that immigrants and native-born workers compete for the same jobs as close substitutes

> Frequently, immigrants work in jobs that are complementary to native-born workers, supporting employment for those workers rather than taking away opportunities.

Studies of recent enforcement found:

> "So if we've had a big withdrawal of immigrants from the labor force, we don't see any sign of the US-born workers getting more employment because of that."

The analysis found "Losses [were] concentrated in immigrant-intensive sectors but spread well beyond them" and industries with very few immigrant workers—such as arts and entertainment—also contracted sharplybecause as firms faced sudden labor shortages, they scaled back operations.

Nuance and Counterpoints

•Shortages would not be uniform across all industries or regions. They are most acute in physically demanding, lower-wage, or geographically isolated jobs that U.S.-born workers are less likely to take.

•In theory, labor shortages could be mitigated by higher wages, automation, or increased labor-force participation among native-born workers, but research on historical episodes like the 1964 bracero exclusion found jobs previously filled by immigrants were either replaced by machines or eliminated entirely rather than filled by native workers at higher wages.

•Some short-term labor market tightening may lead to wage increases in some sectors (employers forced to raise wages by 10–20% in some sectors to attract dwindling workforces), but that also contributes to inflation and higher consumer prices.

In summary, given an aging population, falling birth rates, and heavy reliance on immigrant labor in key industries, virtually all recent Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office, and academic analyses conclude that stopping immigration would not just cause a tighter labor market, but a shrinking and less productive one, with measurable job losses for both immigrant and U.S.-born workers.

Citations (3)

1visaverge.comCommercial content
Will US Immigration Restrictions Lead to a Shrinking Workforce?
Backs: “Consensus: Yes - With Caveats. Recent analysis links tightened immigration controls directly to shortages: Tightened immigration controls are directly linked to growing labor shortages in key sectors of the U.S.”
2equitablegrowth.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Economic research shows immigration is good for U.S. workers, the economy, and affordability
Backs: “Tightened immigration controls are directly linked to growing labor shortages in key sectors of the U.S. economy. Reduced immigration contributes to labor shortages, driving inflationary pressures as the supply of immigrant-dependent goods and services shrinks”
3inc.comNews and mediaquality 0.88
Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Has Cost the U.S. Economy 668,000 Jobs, Studies Show
Backs: “Why The U.S. Is Vulnerable. Demographics - Without immigration, the workforce shrinks”