Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Polarization is debatable — I'll pull recent data to compare today's divide with past eras.

Yes and no - it depends what time scale and what type of polarization you mean:

1. By measures of the last 50 years, yes - polarization is at a modern high

A Pew Research Center analysis found the perception that polarization has increased is correct:

> Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years

Pew's analysis of DW-NOMINATE voting scores found:

> It's become commonplace among observers of U.S. politics to decry partisan polarization in Congress. Indeed, a Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years

Two specific trends drive this:

•Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive. There are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versus more than 160 in 1971-72.

•In detail, in the 117th Congress from 2021 to 2023, there were about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans, for comparison, there were more than 160 moderates five decades earlier during the 92nd Congress from 1971-1972

That shift has been gradual and long-term:

> American politicians are highly ideologically polarized. In other words, they believe in and vote for different sets of policies, with little overlap. This trend has grown in a steady, unpunctuated manner for decades

Research also notes the process begins long before voters get a choice: more ideologically extreme politicians have been running for office since the 1980s

Other measures show the same recent peak:

•In a detailed poll of more than 10,000 Americans, researchers found more political polarization in the United States than at any time in the past two decades

•In the study, researchers found that in the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries they examined—the U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden

•Referencing data from 12 OECD countries, researchers argue that the state of U.S. affective polarization is exceptional

•One summary found the United States has been more "perniciously polarized" for longer than any consolidated democracy has ever been

Political division in the US surged from 2008 onward, according to one study, with affective polarization characterized as increasingly prominent trend in Western democracies since the 1980s

Affective polarization - defined as the tendency to view opposing partisans negatively and co-partisans positively - has increased and become more prevalent domestically over time. Studies find it increases over time, and with important implications, showing increases until 1985, a leveling off until 2000, followed by significant increases through the twenty-first century.

It started growing before the internet: its onset more closely correlates with the rise of cable news and radio talk shows.

2. By measures of the broader public, the picture is more nuanced

•American voters are less ideologically polarized than they think they are, and that misperception is greatest for the most politically engaged people

•There is some overlap even on hot-button issues, such as abortion and guns

•One researcher argues: "Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions are still fuzzy, and Americans are not split into entirely opposing tribes when it comes to the issues"

In other words, elite polarization (Congress, activists, primary candidates) is at a 50-year high, while mass ideological polarization is more about sorting and mutual dislike (affective polarization) than a total policy divide.

3. By measures of all of American history, no - it has been worse

Historians and political scientists caution that current polarization, while severe by late-20th / early-21st century standards, pales next to earlier eras:

> for all the hype about the ruptures and partisan rancor in contemporary American society, the strife pales in comparison with much of the nation's past... There have been long stretches of American history in which conflicts were far worse

The most common benchmark is the Civil War era:

> As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century
> Between Abraham Lincoln's election in November 1860 and the surrender of Robert E. Lee's Confederate army at Appomattox in April 1865, the nation literally broke apart

That era produced at least 620,000 military deaths – the equivalent of approximately 6.5 million dead in the United States of 2020.

Other markers of that era - such as the caning of Senator Charles Sumner on the Senate floor in 1856, secession of seven slaveholding states between Dec. 20 and Feb. 1, 1861, and assassination of Lincoln, illustrate a level of violence not seen today.

As one historian summarized:

> No political issue in 2020 approaches slavery in the mid-19th century in terms of potential divisiveness

Other scholars note that some analyses overlook more than a half century of labor violence from 1870–1930, not to mention the 1960s, and that today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery.

Bottom line

•Compared to the last 50 years (roughly 1970s to present): Yes, worse than any point in that period by congressional voting overlap, ideological distance between parties, and affective dislike.

•Compared to the last 150-200 years: No, not worse than the 1860s Civil War / Reconstruction, and arguably not worse than periods of intense labor and civil rights conflict.

What is distinct about today, researchers argue, is the combination of pernicious emotional polarization that has lasted longer than in other consolidated democracies, the disappearance of a congressional middle, and the perception gap where highly engaged partisans overestimate how extreme the other side is.

Citations (3)

1pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades
Backs: “It's become commonplace among observers of U.S. politics to decry partisan polarization in Congress. Indeed, a Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years”
2carnegieendowment.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Backs: “In other words, they believe in and vote for different sets of policies, with little overlap.”
3govexec.comNews and mediaquality 0.87
Think the U.S. is More Polarized Than Ever? You Don’t Know History
Backs: “There have been long stretches of American history in which conflicts were far worse. The most common benchmark is the Civil War era: As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century”