Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Is polarization worse than before? I'll pull historical comparisons to see how today's divide stacks up.

Is political polarization worse than in the past? The answer depends on what time period and what type of polarization you mean:

For the recent past (last 50 years) - Yes, worse.

A Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.

That analysis based on DW-NOMINATE roll-call voting scores finds:

•Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive. There are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versus more than 160 in 1971-72.

•Both parties have moved further away from the ideological center since the early 1970s. Democrats on average have become somewhat more liberal, while Republicans on average have become much more conservative.

In terms of overlap:

•Five decades ago, 144 House Republicans were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat, and 52 House Democrats were less liberal than the most liberal Republican.

•Since 2002... there's been no overlap at all between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House. In the Senate, the end of overlap came in 2004.

In the 1960s, for instance, you had intervals where about 50 percent of the legislators in the two parties overlapped. Today, the overlap interval is zero.

Political polarization in America is often measured as "affective polarization" - the gap between positive feelings toward one's own party and negative feelings toward the opposing party. That has increased markedly:

•Affective polarization, calculated as the difference between these ratings, rose from 22.64 degrees in 1978 to 40.87 degrees in 2016.

•More recent ANES data show... with affective polarization jumping from 41 to 52.2 degrees between 2016 and 2020.

Compared to other democracies, the increase is unusually large:

•In the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries they examined—the U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden.

•Of the countries included, the US experienced the largest increase in polarization in a study measuring trends in 12 OECD countries over the last 40 years.

Pew also noted political polarization is the highest it's been in the last 25 years... In 1987, the partisan gap was at 10 percentage points, and has now nearly doubled, hovering at 18 percentage points.

For the longer sweep of American history - No, not the worst ever

When viewed in a 150+ year context, current polarization is comparable to, but not worse than, the Civil War era:

•Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.

•NOMINATE data ... shows that partisan elites in the U.S. are as polarized today as they were around the time of the Civil War, suggesting there is a huge gulf in the middle.

•Some political scientists have pointed out that — viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries — today’s levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum.

Historians emphasize that earlier conflicts were more severe:

> for all the hype about the ruptures and partisan rancor in contemporary American society, the strife pales in comparison with much of the nation’s past. ... There have been long stretches of American history in which conflicts were far worse.

> University of Virginia Civil War historian, Gary W. Gallagher, says that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century. Between Abraham Lincoln’s election in November 1860 and the surrender of Robert E. Lee’s Confederate army

> No political issue in 2020 approaches slavery in the mid-19th century in terms of potential divisiveness.

An important nuance: type of polarization matters

Researchers distinguish between:

1.Elite / ideological polarization - elected officials voting along party lines. This has clearly increased.

2.Affective polarization - ordinary partisans disliking the other side. This has increased drastically in the last four decades.

But mass ideological polarization - ordinary voters holding consistently extreme policy positions across many issues - has not increased as much:

> partisan–ideological sorting has increased affective polarization in the USA and other countries, while ideological polarization has not changed much.

And voters tend to overestimate how extreme the other side is. A 2022 study of over 13,000 Americans found 49% said voters belonging to the opposite party are extreme, in reality only 14 percent of voters behave that way.

In short: Perceptions and affective dislike are at a 50-year high and Congress is as ideologically divided as it has been since the Reconstruction/Civil War era, but the nation's divisions have not yet reached the existential, violent break that led to the Civil War in the 1850s-1860s.

Citations (3)

1pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades
Backs: “That analysis based on DW-NOMINATE roll-call voting scores finds: Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive. There are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versus more than 160 in 1971-72.”
2usc.eduAcademic
Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War
Backs: “there's been no overlap at all between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House. In the Senate, the end of overlap came in 2004. In the 1960s, for instance, you had intervals where about 50 percent of the legislators in the two parties overlapped.”
3bigthink.comNews and mediaquality 0.88
Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity
Backs: “Political polarization in America is often measured as "affective polarization" - the gap between positive feelings toward one's own party and negative feelings toward the opposing party. That has increased markedly: Affective polarization, calculated as the difference between these ratings, rose from 22.64 degrees in…”