Voter fraud claims are everywhere — I'll pull the latest research and data to see what the evidence actually shows.
Voter fraud exists in the United States but research consistently finds it is very rare relative to total votes cast, and not at a scale that has been shown to affect national election outcomes.
•Consistent research finding - very rare: "Research has consistently found that voter fraud in the United States is very rare."
•No widespread effect on national outcomes: "there have been only scattered examples of electoral fraud affecting the outcomes of United States elections, mostly on the local level."
•Fraud is more likely to matter in local elections: "Fraud is more likely to occur in and affect the outcome of local elections, where the potential impact of a small number of votes can be greater."
How rare - measured rates
Studies measure rates in hundredths of a thousandth of a percent:
•A Brennan Center for Justice review of elections meticulously studied for fraud found incident rates "between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent". Another summary of that work put the range "between 0.00004% and 0.0009%"
•A Massachusetts Institute of Technology study covering 20 years found mail-in ballot fraud "exceedingly rare" since it occurs only in "0.00006 percent" of individual votes nationally, and, in one state, "0.000004 percent – about five times less likely than getting hit by lightning"
•Large-scale audits show similarly tiny rates. A Washington Post analysis of 14.6 million mail votes in Colorado, Oregon and Washington found officials had flagged just 372 possible cases
What databases show
Two of the most cited databases - one journalistic and one advocacy - both show small numbers relative to hundreds of millions of votes:
•A News21 journalism project at Arizona State University published a database of 2,068 alleged voter fraud cases reported between 2000 and 2012, representing "about 0.000003 cases for every vote cast"
•The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, publishes what it describes as an incomplete sampling. "As of November 2023, there were 1,465 proven cases of voter fraud listed in 44 years, an average of 33 cases per year."
•"In Texas, for example, Heritage found 103 cases of confirmed voter fraud between 2005 and 2022, in a period where 107 million ballots were cast, or 0.000096% of all ballots cast."
•Brookings' review of Heritage data found, for example, that in Arizona "across 36 elections and 42.6 million ballots there were 36 documented cases—about 0.0000845% of ballots"
•An Associated Press inquiry in swing states identified "roughly 475 potential cases out of more than 25 million ballots"
Types of fraud
•Voter impersonation (in-person fraud): "It is extremely rare." and "Between 1978 and 2018, no elections were overturned by courts due to voter impersonation fraud."
•Mail-in/absentee fraud: "While quite rare, experts say fraud occurs more often with mailed-in votes than with in-person voting." Between 1978 and 2018, "at least fourteen elections were invalidated or overturned by courts due to absentee ballot fraud, twelve of which were at the local level"
•Noncitizen voting: "Illegal voting by noncitizens... It is extremely rare." A Brennan Center study of 2016 data from 42 jurisdictions found "an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting out of 23.5 million votes cast (or .0001% of votes)."
•Official assessments of recent elections: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), along with state election officials, declared the 2020 election "the most secure in American history," stating there was "no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."
Caveats and competing views
Some experts note measurement difficulties:
•"Some experts have said voter fraud can be difficult to prove or find, depending on the circumstances, although experts generally consider widespread cheating easy to detect."
Supporters of stricter election integrity laws argue that even small numbers matter for public confidence, that databases are incomplete samplings, and that mail voting is less secure than in-person voting. Critics of those claims argue that proven rates are microscopic and that false accusations of widespread fraud have a long history, increasing since the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Bottom line supported by the research: voter fraud is real and prosecuted - with hundreds to a few thousand proven cases over decades out of billions of votes cast - but empirical evidence across decades and multiple methodologies shows it occurs at rates far below 0.01% and has not been shown to have flipped major federal elections.