Is Donald Trump improving the lives of Americans?

Short answer: It’s mixed and depends on which outcome you care about. Here’s a snapshot of widely watched indicators since Donald Trump took office again on January 20, 2025.

Getting better for many Americans

•Incomes: Real median household income rose 2.6% in 2025 to a record $87,460 (the highest since the Census series began in 1967). After‑tax, inflation‑adjusted income measures also improved through mid‑2026.[1]

•Jobs: The unemployment rate was 4.1% in August 2026 (little changed over the past year), with payrolls still expanding. Real average earnings were roughly flat to slightly up over the past year.[2]

•Crime: Violent crime and homicides fell sharply in 2025, and large‑city data show further declines in the first half of 2026, pointing toward historically low homicide rates.[3]

•Border encounters: CBP data and GAO summaries show Southwest border encounters collapsed in FY2025 to roughly 440,000–445,000, down about 80% from FY2024. Monthly totals in 2026 remained far below 2021–2024 peaks.[4]

•Overdose deaths and life expectancy: CDC provisional figures show overdose deaths declined again in 2025, and U.S. life expectancy increased in 2024 (latest final year available).[5]

•Markets: From Inauguration Day 2025 to mid‑September 2026, the S&P 500 rose roughly 28%, supporting retirement balances and wealth for invested households.[6]

Mixed or worse for others

•Prices: Inflation cooled from 2022–2023 highs but remained above the Fed’s 2% goal in 2026; overall CPI was up 3.4% year‑over‑year in August 2026 (core 2.4%). Energy prices were a key driver over the prior year.[7]

•Growth: Real GDP rose 2.1% in 2025, but quarterly growth slowed in 2026 (1.5% annualized in Q2).[8]

•Housing affordability: Mortgage rates hovered around 7% in September 2026 while home prices set new highs over the summer—tough conditions for first‑time buyers.[9]

•Tariffs and living costs: In April 2025, Trump imposed a 10% across‑the‑board tariff using emergency powers. CBO estimates those and related tariff changes temporarily raised inflation (about +0.4 percentage points in 2025–2026 on average) and slightly reduced real GDP and employment versus otherwise.[10]

•Fiscal picture: Despite higher tariff revenues and a strong market, CBO projects a large FY2026 federal deficit (~$1.9 trillion) and rising debt over the next decade, which can pressure future growth and interest costs.[11]

Bottom line

•If you prioritize border enforcement, crime reduction, stock portfolios, and the 2025 tax law (which extended and expanded many TCJA‑era cuts), you can point to tangible improvements. If you prioritize low inflation, faster growth, housing affordability, and fiscal sustainability, the picture is less favorable. On net, the impact so far (January 2025–September 2026) is best described as mixed—some measures clearly up, others strained, and several trends (crime, overdoses, incomes) also reflect momentum that started before 2025.[12]

If you tell me which areas matter most to you—prices, wages, housing, safety, immigration, or the budget—I can dig deeper into those specifically.

Citations (12)

1census.govGovernment
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2025
Backs: “After‑tax, inflation‑adjusted income measures also improved through mid‑2026.”
2bls.govGovernment
Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M08 Results
Backs: “Real average earnings were roughly flat to slightly up over the past year.”
3fbi.govGovernment
Violent Crime Falls at Historic Rate, New FBI Data Show — FBI
Backs: “Violent crime and homicides fell sharply in 2025, and large‑city data show further declines in the first half of 2026, pointing toward historically low homicide rates.”
4gao.govGovernment
GAO-26-107765, BORDER SECURITY: Additional Information Could Inform Enforcement Decisions for Noncitizens Paroled at the Southwest Border
Backs: “CBP data and GAO summaries show Southwest border encounters collapsed in FY2025 to roughly 440,000–445,000, down about 80% from FY2024. Monthly totals in 2026 remained far below 2021–2024 peaks.”
5cdc.govGovernment
U.S. Overdose Deaths Decrease for Third Consecutive Year in 2025 | NCHS Pressroom | CDC
Backs: “CDC provisional figures show overdose deaths declined again in 2025, and U.S. life expectancy increased in 2024 (latest final year available).”
6axios.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
How Trump 2.0's stock market stacks up with predecessors
Backs: “From Inauguration Day 2025 to mid‑September 2026, the S&P 500 rose roughly 28%, supporting retirement balances and wealth for invested households.”
7bls.govGovernment
Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M08 Results
Backs: “Inflation cooled from 2022–2023 highs but remained above the Fed’s 2% goal in 2026; overall CPI was up 3.4% year‑over‑year in August 2026 (core 2.4%). Energy prices were a key driver over the prior year.”
8bea.govGovernment
BEA | Bureau of Economic Analysis
Backs: “Real GDP rose 2.1% in 2025, but quarterly growth slowed in 2026 (1.5% annualized in Q2).”
9freddiemac.comNot yet classified
Mortgage Rates - Freddie Mac
Backs: “Mortgage rates hovered around 7% in September 2026 while home prices set new highs over the summer—tough conditions for first‑time buyers.”
10whitehouse.govGovernment
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Declares National Emergency to Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security – The White House
Backs: “CBO estimates those and related tariff changes temporarily raised inflation (about +0.4 percentage points in 2025–2026 on average) and slightly reduced real GDP and employment versus otherwise.”
11cbo.govGovernment
Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy | Congressional Budget Office
Backs: “Despite higher tariff revenues and a strong market, CBO projects a large FY2026 federal deficit (~$1.9 trillion) and rising debt over the next decade, which can pressure future growth and interest costs.”
12whitehouse.govGovernment
President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Is Now the Law – The White House
Backs: “On net, the impact so far (January 2025–September 2026) is best described as mixed—some measures clearly up, others strained, and several trends (crime, overdoses, incomes) also reflect momentum that started before 2025.”