Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Is voter fraud a problem in the U.S.? I’ll check recent research and data on how often it occurs.

In the United States voter fraud exists and is prosecuted, but multiple decades of research, investigations, and court reviews find it is extremely rare relative to total votes cast, and not at a scale that has flipped major federal election outcomes.

What the research shows

The consensus from credible research and investigation is that illegal voting is extremely rare.

•Empirical evidence across decades and multiple methodologies leads to one clear, repeatable conclusion: proven voter fraud is extremely rare relative to the number of votes cast — measured in orders of magnitude of 0.0000X percent — and no rigorous body of research has shown fraud at the scale necessary to flip major U.S. elections

•One well-known Brennan Center analysis estimated fraud rates between roughly 0.0003% and 0.0025% based on decades of data. The original report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. It concluded it is more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls".

•Other estimates put rates even lower. A comprehensive investigation found 31 credible incidents out of one billion ballots cast from 2000 to 2014, and a Brennan Center survey of officials overseeing 23.5 million votes in 2016 found only an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting - a rate of 0.0001 percent.

•Researchers describe fraud as "infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome".

The Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), a non-partisan electoral integrity organization, put the rate at 0.0025%, or 376 ballots out of 14.6 million ballots.

What case counts show

The most cited public compilation, the conservative Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, demonstrates both that fraud is real and that it is scarce:

•The database catalogs roughly 1,561 instances that produced about 1,325 convictions across many decades. More recent counts put it at 1,619 proven instances spanning primarily 1982 through 2025, or about 1,088 proven instances including 949 cases that have resulted in criminal convictions in earlier tallies.

•Brookings analysis using Heritage's own data showed reported fraud in swing states amounted to less than 1% of cases and analysts had to go back decades to assemble the small numbers cited.

Large journalistic reviews of recent elections reach similar conclusions:

An Associated Press review of every potential case of voter fraud in the six battleground states disputed by former President Donald Trump found fewer than 475 — a number that would have made no difference in the 2020 presidential election. That represented 0.15% of Biden's total margin of victory in those states, out of more than 25 million votes cast.

State-level referrals in 2024 were also small relative to vote totals: Nevada reported more than 300 potential "double voting" incidents, with only a single case referred externally at the time of reporting, while Wisconsin clerks collectively referred a few dozen instances out of roughly 3.4 million ballots cast.

Types of fraud that do occur

The United States government defines voter or ballot fraud as one of three broad categories of federal election crimes. Types of fraud include voter impersonation or in-person voter fraud, mail-in or absentee ballot fraud, illegal voting by noncitizens, and double voting.

Researchers note electoral fraud is extremely rare, with experts saying mail-in voter fraud occurs more often than in-person voter fraud.

Common categories prosecutors see:

•Voting multiple times / double voting - casting a ballot both in person and by mail or registering in more than one location

•Impersonation - voting in the name of another person, a dead person, or using false identity

•False registration / ineligible voting - giving false information when registering, such as false citizenship claims, or voting when ineligible

•Vote buying / ballot tampering by officials or operatives, including changing a ballot tally or offering money for votes

Most high-profile prosecutions are individual cases - such as charges tied to absentee ballot misuse and fraudulent voter registrations - rather than systemic conspiracies, and reporting based on Heritage notes that none of the listed cases overturned federal election outcomes.

Many alleged instances turn out to be mistakes rather than intentional fraud, traceable to clerical errors or bad data matching practices.

Safeguards in place

Election officials point to layered safeguards that make large-scale fraud difficult:

•Security measures include signature matching, information checks, barcodes, watermarks, and precise paper weights

•The FBI and CISA continue to assess that attempts to manipulate votes at scale would be difficult to conduct undetected, given extensive safeguards and the distributed nature of election infrastructure

•Other failsafes cited include provisional ballots, backup poll books, logic and accuracy testing, chain of custody procedures and audits

Why perception differs from data

Surveys in 2024 found a third or more of registered voters considered various types of election fraud to be common or occasional, creating a perception gap between empirical evidence and public belief that scholars say can reduce participation and confidence.

Advocates for stricter election laws cite Heritage's database as evidence fraud is a "real and pressing issue that deserves serious solutions", while researchers citing the same data emphasize the tiny scale compared to hundreds of millions of ballots cast.

Bottom line

•Yes, voter fraud happens - documented instances result in criminal convictions every election cycle.

•Is it widespread or determinative? Available evidence says no. Rates consistently measure from 0.0003% to 0.0025% in Brennan's studied elections down to 31 cases per billion ballots, and even the largest public databases show only about 1,500 proven cases over four decades against billions of votes.

•For policymakers, the evidence supports targeted enforcement, voter-roll maintenance, and public education about election scams, rather than evidence of systemic fraud flipping national elections.

Citations (2)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Resources on Voter Fraud Claims
Backs: “In the United States voter fraud exists and is prosecuted, but multiple decades of research, investigations, and court reviews find it is extremely rare relative to total votes cast, and not at a scale that has flipped major federal election outcomes. What the research shows”
2factually.coLow provenance
How Common Is Voter Fraud in the United States?
Backs: “More recent counts put it at 1,619 proven instances spanning primarily 1982 through 2025, or about 1,088 proven instances including 949 cases that have resulted in criminal convictions in earlier tallies. Brookings analysis using Heritage's own data showed reported fraud in swing states amounted to less than 1% of…”