Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Yes, by most standard measures, political polarization in the United States—particularly ideological, partisan, and affective forms—is worse than it has been in recent decades (roughly the post-WWII era through the 1990s/early 2000s) and stands out as unusually high and sustained among long-established wealthy democracies. Comparisons to the more distant past (e.g., Civil War era, early republic, or 1960s) are more mixed and depend on the metric, as those periods involved different forms of conflict, including outright violence or sectional divides that cut across parties.[1][2]
Polarization is multi-dimensional: ideological (policy/issue differences), partisan sorting (alignment of ideology with party ID), affective (emotional dislike or distrust of the other side), and elite vs. mass levels. Data come from sources like DW-NOMINATE (congressional voting), American National Election Studies (ANES), Pew Research, Gallup, and Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) expert assessments.
Congressional/Elite Polarization
Parties in Congress are more ideologically distinct and cohesive than at any point in the last 50 years, with virtually no overlap between the most conservative Democrats and most liberal Republicans (unlike the 1970s, when there were substantial numbers of moderates and cross-party overlap).[3][3]
Mass Public Polarization (Voters and Issues)
Public opinion divides have widened, especially since the late 2000s:
Affective Polarization and Social Impacts
Dislike and distrust of the opposing party have risen markedly:
Broader Historical and Comparative Context
In short, for the modern democratic era and especially the last half-century, yes—polarization (elite and mass, ideological and affective) is worse and more entrenched in the US than in the recent past, with concerning implications for governance, trust, and social cohesion. It is not unprecedented in American history overall, but its current form and duration are distinctive. Causes include realignment, media fragmentation, economic/cultural changes, elite incentives, and institutional features of the two-party system, though debates continue on relative weights.
Citations (21)
- https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2022/01/what-happens-when-democracies-become-perniciously-polarized
Backs: “Comparisons to the more distant past (e.g., Civil War era, early republic, or 1960s) are more mixed and depend on the metric, as those periods involved different forms of conflict, including outright violence or sectional divides that cut across parties.”
- https://archive.is/2026.07.05-104443/https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/05/politics/trump-july-4-america-250-civil-war-analysis
Backs: “Comparisons to the more distant past (e.g., Civil War era, early republic, or 1960s) are more mixed and depend on the metric, as those periods involved different forms of conflict, including outright violence or sectional divides that cut across parties.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
Backs: “Parties in Congress are more ideologically distinct and cohesive than at any point in the last 50 years, with virtually no overlap between the most conservative Democrats and most liberal Republicans (unlike the 1970s, when there were substantial numbers of moderates and cross-party overlap).”
- https://capitoltrace.com/polarization
Backs: “The partisan gap has grown dramatically (e.g., from ~0.5 in the 1970s to over 0.9 recently).”
- https://www.amacad.org/publication/daedalus/party-polarization-congress
Backs: “This has roots in the realignment of Southern conservatives from Democrats to Republicans, primary systems, and other factors, but the trend accelerated in recent decades.”
- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/245829838_D-Nominate_after_10_Years
Backs: “Current levels approach or exceed some earlier peaks short of the Civil War era.”
- https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1114750
Backs: “Clusters stayed roughly equal in size (unusual globally), and within-cluster diversity did not shrink much—but sorting into parties/ideologies increased sharply.”
- https://thedebrief.org/u-s-political-polarization-didnt-rise-gradually-it-spiked-after-2008-study-finds/
Backs: “Clusters stayed roughly equal in size (unusual globally), and within-cluster diversity did not shrink much—but sorting into parties/ideologies increased sharply.”
- https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/2/251428/479919/A-new-measure-of-issue-polarization-using-k-means
Backs: “Clusters stayed roughly equal in size (unusual globally), and within-cluster diversity did not shrink much—but sorting into parties/ideologies increased sharply.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/section-1-growing-ideological-consistency/
Backs: “The median Democrat is now more liberal than nearly all Republicans (and vice versa), a big change from the 1990s.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/changing-partisan-coalitions-in-a-politically-divided-nation/
Backs: “White non-college voters lean heavily Republican; college-educated and minority voters more Democratic.”
- https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/polarization-united-states-reconsidered
Backs: “Some research finds “latent” value divides (e.g., moral/religious) relatively stable over decades, but partisan alignment with those divides has risen sharply—people sort more cleanly into parties.”
- https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/society/2024/latest-research-what-causes-political-polarization
Backs: ““Feeling thermometer” gaps (warmth toward own party vs. coldness toward the other) have roughly doubled since the late 1970s/1980s in ANES data.”
- https://www.deseret.com/2024/1/15/24002302/dangerously-divided-united-states/
Backs: “Large shares now say they would be unhappy if a child married someone from the other party; political differences contribute to family/relationship strains and breakups (with some evidence of increases post-2016).”
- https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/5/5/pgag067/8666534
Backs: “Large shares now say they would be unhappy if a child married someone from the other party; political differences contribute to family/relationship strains and breakups (with some evidence of increases post-2016).”
- https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/local-officials-political-polarization-harmful-nationally-survey-rcna247174
Backs: “Local officials widely see national polarization as harmful.”
- https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/when-polarization-turns-violent/
Backs: “Political violence threats have risen (though overall homicide rates have not), and media/social media amplify divides.”
- https://yale.imodules.com/s/1667/images/gid6/editor_documents/habeck/polarized_america_22/the_atlantic-_doom_spiral_of_pernicious_polarization.pdf
Backs: “The US is an outlier among wealthy, established liberal democracies.”
- https://carnegieendowment.org/files/McCoy_et_al_-_Polarization_final_3.pdf
Backs: “The US is an outlier among wealthy, established liberal democracies.Polarization has also risen globally in many regions since ~2005, but less extremely or persistently in peers.”
- https://www.news-gazette.com/news/town-hall-how-deep-is-the-divide/article_0a36e1dc-31bd-488d-a7d1-8ee1a2d0d0b4.html
Backs: “Some historians argue today’s policy/substantive divides are not as deep as those eras, or that 50/50 gridlock limits radical change, but today’s version is highly nationalized, media-amplified, identity-linked, and affects everyday social life more pervasively in a two-party system with equal-sized camps.”
- https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/10/style/america-is-atomizing.html
Backs: “It is not inevitable or ever-rising; it can plateau or reverse.”