Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
The question of whether political polarization is worse today than in the past depends on which historical era you use as a baseline, and how you measure "worse".
Political scientists and historians generally agree that polarization in the United States is worse today than at any point in the last 150 years (since the Reconstruction Era following the Civil War). However, it is not as severe as it was during the 1850s and 1860s, which culminated in a literal Civil War.
Three distinct trends define the depth of modern polarization:
1. The Disappearance of the Political Middle (Ideological Polarization)
For much of the 20th century, the two major U.S. parties had significant ideological overlap. It was common to find conservative Democrats (mostly from the South) and liberal Republicans (mostly from the Northeast). This overlap made cross-party coalitions and legislative compromise relatively common.
Today, that overlap has completely vanished. According to DW-NOMINATE scores—the gold standard metric used by political scientists to track congressional voting patterns—Democrats and Republicans are further apart ideologically than at any point since the late 1870s.
2. Disliking the "Other Side" (Affective Polarization)
Perhaps the most noticeable shift for everyday citizens is not just that we disagree on policy, but that we actively dislike, distrust, and fear people from the opposing party. This is known as affective polarization.
3. The Myth of the "Golden Age" of Bipartisanship
When people lament how bad polarization has become, they often look back to the mid-20th century (the 1950s and 1960s) as a model of civil, bipartisan cooperation. However, historians point out that this period was a historical anomaly and carried its own severe flaws:
Therefore, while the mid-20th century was less polarized, it was also less representative and democratic for millions of Americans.
4. Is This Happening Everywhere?
It is easy to assume that political polarization is a natural byproduct of the internet and social media, which affects the whole world. However, comparative studies by economists at Stanford and Brown show that the U.S. is an exceptional outlier.
While affective polarization has risen rapidly in the U.S. over the last 40 years, it has risen much more slowly in countries like Canada and Switzerland, and has actually decreased in peer democracies like Germany, Sweden, the UK, and Australia.
Researchers point to unique structural factors in the U.S. that exacerbate division, including:
Summary
If you compare today to the American Civil War, we are not in our country's most polarized state. But if you compare today to any period in living memory, political polarization is profoundly worse. The divide is no longer just about differing opinions on tax rates or highway funding; it has evolved into a clash of social identities where each side increasingly views the other as an existential threat to the nation.
Citations (12)
- usc.edu
Backs: “The question of whether political polarization is worse today than in the past depends on which historical era you use as a baseline, and how you measure "worse".”
- reddit.com
Backs: “The question of whether political polarization is worse today than in the past depends on which historical era you use as a baseline, and how you measure "worse".”
- syr.edu
Backs: “Political scientists and historians generally agree that polarization in the United States is worse today than at any point in the last 150 years (since the Reconstruction Era following the Civil War).”
- wikipedia.org
Backs: “However, it is not as severe as it was during the 1850s and 1860s, which culminated in a literal Civil War.”
- brookings.edu
Backs: “The Disappearance of the Political Middle (Ideological Polarization). For much of the 20th century, the two major U.S. parties had significant ideological overlap.”
- pewresearch.org
Backs: “It was common to find conservative Democrats (mostly from the South) and liberal Republicans (mostly from the Northeast).”
- cam.ac.uk
Backs: “The "Sorting" of the Public: This is not just a problem among politicians; voters have also sorted themselves. In 1994, Pew Research found that the average Republican was more conservative than 70% of Democrats, and the average Democrat was more liberal than 64% of Republicans.”
- northwestern.edu
Backs: “Disliking the "Other Side" (Affective Polarization). Perhaps the most noticeable shift for everyday citizens is not just that we disagree on policy, but that we actively dislike, distrust, and fear people from the opposing party. This is known as affective polarization.”
- brown.edu
Backs: “This is known as affective polarization. Moral Demonization: In 2016, roughly 47% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats viewed members of the other party as "more immoral" than average Americans.”
- stanford.edu
Backs: “However, comparative studies by economists at Stanford and Brown show that the U.S. is an exceptional outlier. While affective polarization has risen rapidly in the U.S.”
- ucdavis.edu
Backs: “them" dynamic, whereas parliamentary systems with multi-party coalitions force politicians to cooperate to govern.”
- visualcapitalist.com
Backs: “The divide is no longer just about differing opinions on tax rates or highway funding; it has evolved into a clash of social identities where each side increasingly views the other as an existential threat to the nation.”