Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Is voter fraud a significant issue in the US? I'll review the latest evidence and data to assess how common it is.

In the U.S. voter fraud exists, but research consistently finds it is extremely rare and not at a scale to affect federal election outcomes.

What the research shows

Multiple studies and reviews describe fraud as "vanishingly rare" or "infinitesimally rare".

> “Research has been consistent over time that voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome,” said Alice Clapman, senior counsel for voting rights at the Brennan Center for Justice

Other summaries conclude the same:

> But voter fraud remains a very rare occurrence across the country

> Scholars and nonpartisan researchers who have compiled proven cases across decades conclude that instances of voter fraud are extremely uncommon relative to the hundreds of millions of ballots cast

Measured rates vary by study and methodology, but are consistently microscopic:

•One non-partisan estimate cited as 0.0025%, or 376 ballots out of 14.6 million ballots

•Brennan Center analysis estimated fraud rates between roughly 0.0003% and 0.0025% based on decades of data

•A Massachusetts Institute of Technology study of mail ballots over two decades called mail-in fraud “exceedingly rare” and reported rates on the order of 0.00006 percent

•Brookings' review of Heritage Foundation case data calculated examples such as Arizona where fraudulent votes were roughly 0.0000845 percent across decades

•Under Republican President George W. Bush, the U.S. Justice Department in the first three years of its anti-fraud program obtained just 26 convictions out of 197,056,035 votes cast in two federal elections, a rate of 0.00000132 percent

General summary across reputable sources:

> proven voter fraud is extremely rare relative to the number of votes cast — measured in orders of magnitude of 0.0000X percent — and no rigorous body of research has shown fraud at the scale necessary to flip major U.S. elections

What databases of proven cases show

Even the largest compiled databases show small numbers relative to total votes:

•The conservative Heritage Foundation's database - often cited as evidence fraud is rampant - documents only about 1,400 cases over decades, a rate of roughly 1 case per 1,000,000 ballots

•At present, the database has 1,071 such incidents, including 938 cases that have resulted in criminal convictions

•Another summary puts proven cases across many decades at roughly 1,400–1,600 in Heritage's compilation

•For 2024 specifically, Heritage reports 20 cases brought, and a Brookings report cited only 20 cases brought in 2024

A Brennan Center analysis of Heritage's data found:

> Claims that the database contains almost 1,100 proven instances of voter fraud are grossly exaggerated and devoid of context... Voter fraud is vanishingly rare, and impersonating a voter at the polls is less common a phenomenon than being struck by lightning

Details of that review:

•In reviewing billions of votes cast, the Heritage Foundation identified just 10 cases involving in-person impersonation fraud at the polls

•The database includes only 41 cases involving non-citizens registering, voting, or attempting to vote over five decades

•Only 105 of its 749 cases came from within the past five years at time of review, with examples going back to 1948 and 1972

•A separate review noted the Brennan Center found the database actually shows just 10 cases of in-person voter impersonation and 41 cases of non-citizens voting

Other reviews similarly note that even when compiling all credible claims, the implied rate remains astronomically small, and many alleged incidents turn out to be administrative errors or confusion, not coordinated fraud

Studies of earlier elections also found:

•24 journalism students reviewing some 2,000 public records identified just six cases of voter impersonation between 2000 and 2012

•No state considering or passing restrictive voter identification laws has documented an actual problem with voter fraud, and in litigation election officials testified they have never seen cases of voter impersonation at the polls

Types of fraud that do occur

When fraud is proven, it most often involves:

•Double voting

•False registration

•Vote-buying / ballot submission fraud

•Absentee ballot misuse (e.g., signing for a deceased spouse) - in the contested 2004 Washington gubernatorial election a judge ruled invalid just 25 ballots, constituting 0.0009 percent of the 2,812,675 cast

Many reported irregularities are later found to be mistakes, not intentional fraud: data entry errors, typographical errors, procedural missteps, or human errors in 95 percent of allegedly fraudulent votes investigated in South Carolina in 2010.

Safeguards

Numerous safeguards are in place to deter and detect fraud. These include voter registration databases, signature verification, ballot tracking systems, and postelection audits.

The Criminal Division's Public Integrity Section and U.S. Attorneys' Offices enforce federal laws that prohibit various forms of election crimes, such as destruction of ballots, vote-buying, multiple voting, submission of fraudulent ballots or registrations.

Bottom line

•Yes, isolated cases of voter fraud happen and are prosecuted, but at rates typically measured in the hundred-thousandths to millionths of a percent.

•No non-partisan study or official audit has found evidence of widespread, coordinated fraud sufficient to change the outcome of a modern presidential or other federal election.

•Heritage's own compilation spanning more than 40 years lists about 1,561 instances and 1,325 convictions nationwide, which researchers note is a tiny fraction of the more than three billion votes cast in federal elections in that period.

Citations (2)

1scholars.orgNonprofits and think tanks
# The Misleading Myth of Voter Fraud in American Elections
Backs: “Brookings' review of Heritage Foundation case data calculated examples such as Arizona where fraudulent votes were roughly 0.0000845 percent across decades. Under Republican President George W. Bush, the U.S. Justice Department in the first three years of its anti-fraud program obtained just 26 convictions out of…”
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Analysis: Heritage Foundation's Database Undermines Claims of Recent Voter Fraud
Backs: “Claims that the database contains almost 1,100 proven instances of voter fraud are grossly exaggerated and devoid of context... Voter fraud is vanishingly rare, and impersonating a voter at the polls is less common a phenomenon than being struck by lightning”