Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Yes, in several key measurable dimensions—particularly elite/congressional ideological polarization, mass affective polarization (dislike of the other side), and partisan sorting—political polarization in the United States is worse than it has been for most of the post-World War II era and, by some metrics, at or near multi-generational highs (higher than the mid-20th century “consensus” period and matching or exceeding late-19th-century Gilded Age peaks in Congress). It is not worse than every historical period (the Civil War and Reconstruction eras involved far greater violence, existential stakes, and sectional rupture), and some recent data suggest issue-based polarization may have leveled off somewhat after 2020. Comparisons depend on the exact definition (ideological distance on issues, affective hostility, elite vs. mass, sorting vs. extremity) and the timeframe.[1][2]
Elite/Congressional Polarization
DW-NOMINATE scores (which place legislators on a liberal-conservative scale based on roll-call votes) show clear trends:
This is driven by factors including the realignment of the South (conservative Southern Democrats becoming Republicans), geographic/demographic sorting of the parties, primary systems, and nationalized media/politics. Voting is now nearly unidimensional (liberal-conservative), with high party-unity scores.[6])
Mass Public Polarization
V-Dem’s political polarization measure (extent to which political differences create hostile camps that undermine social relationships) shows the US rising sharply since around 2005–2015 to “pernicious” levels (~3.8/4 by ~2020), far above the world average and unique among wealthy, long-standing Western democracies for its intensity and duration. Other advanced democracies have seen smaller increases or decreases.[14][14][15]
Historical Context and Caveats
In short, by standard political science metrics, polarization is worse than in the living memory of most Americans and elevated relative to much of US history outside of major crises. This contributes to gridlock, eroded trust, and democratic stress, though depolarization has occurred historically after peaks. Data come primarily from sources like Voteview/DW-NOMINATE, Pew Research, ANES, Cambridge/Royal Society studies, and V-Dem.
Citations (18)
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
Backs: “Comparisons depend on the exact definition (ideological distance on issues, affective hostility, elite vs. mass, sorting vs. extremity) and the timeframe.”
- https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states
Backs: “Comparisons depend on the exact definition (ideological distance on issues, affective hostility, elite vs. mass, sorting vs. extremity) and the timeframe.”
- https://capitoltrace.com/polarization
Backs: “Polarization declined from the early 20th century into the mid-century before rising steadily (and accelerating) from the late 1970s/1980s onward.”
- https://kylesaunders.substack.com/p/watch-congress-evolve-in-two-and
Backs: “Polarization declined from the early 20th century into the mid-century before rising steadily (and accelerating) from the late 1970s/1980s onward.”
- https://voteview.com/articles/party_polarization
Backs: “Polarization declined from the early 20th century into the mid-century before rising steadily (and accelerating) from the late 1970s/1980s onward.”
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOMINATE_(scaling_method)
Backs: “Voting is now nearly unidimensional (liberal-conservative), with high party-unity scores.”
- https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/2/251428/479919/A-new-measure-of-issue-polarization-using-k-means
Backs: “Demographic sorting (race, education, geography, urban/rural) has also grown, making the parties more distinct socially.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/changing-partisan-coalitions-in-a-politically-divided-nation/
Backs: “Demographic sorting (race, education, geography, urban/rural) has also grown, making the parties more distinct socially.”
- https://goodauthority.org/news/americans-views-of-the-opposite-party-have-declined-even-further/
Backs: “People increasingly see the other side as a threat, share few values, and report stress from cross-partisan interactions; some data show rises in political breakups of relationships.”
- https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper/cross-country-trends-affective-polarization
Backs: “People increasingly see the other side as a threat, share few values, and report stress from cross-partisan interactions; some data show rises in political breakups of relationships.”
- https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-022-09784-4
Backs: “People increasingly see the other side as a threat, share few values, and report stress from cross-partisan interactions; some data show rises in political breakups of relationships.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/10/05/takeaways-on-americans-growing-partisan-divide-over-political-values/
Backs: “Pew and other surveys document widening partisan gaps on values, issues (government role, race, immigration, environment, etc.), basic facts, and presidential approval (gaps of 70+ points common recently, far larger than mid-20th century). Moderates have declined as a share of the public.”
- https://news.gallup.com/poll/655190/political-parties-historically-polarized-ideologically.aspx
Backs: “Pew and other surveys document widening partisan gaps on values, issues (government role, race, immigration, environment, etc.), basic facts, and presidential approval (gaps of 70+ points common recently, far larger than mid-20th century). Moderates have declined as a share of the public.”
- https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2022/01/what-happens-when-democracies-become-perniciously-polarized
Backs: “Other advanced democracies have seen smaller increases or decreases.”
- https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/2024-10/beyond-polarized-narratives.pdf
Backs: “Other advanced democracies have seen smaller increases or decreases.”
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/31/opinion/political-violence-history-division.html
Backs: “Some argue today’s “culture war” issues have longstanding roots, with partisan alignment catching up to latent value divides.”
- https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/05/politics/trump-july-4-america-250-civil-war-analysis
Backs: “Some argue today’s “culture war” issues have longstanding roots, with partisan alignment catching up to latent value divides.”
- https://democracyproject.org/posts/polarization-today-lessons-from-the-gilded-age
Backs: “Some argue today’s “culture war” issues have longstanding roots, with partisan alignment catching up to latent value divides.”