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Claude Sonnet 5Sep 24, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Yes, by most measures, political polarization—especially in the United States—is worse now than at almost any point in recent history, though the answer gets more nuanced when you look at the deeper past and different types of polarization.

Congressional/elite polarization

Using long-run voting-pattern data (NOMINATE scores), researchers find that ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era. That data also shows the Republican Party has experienced a dramatic shift to the right and ideological moderates in both parties have all but disappeared.

However, some political scientists caution against overstating this: viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and other historically fraught eras (like the run-up to the Civil War).

"Affective" polarization — feelings toward the other side

This is where the data looks most dramatic. Pew's landmark research found that today, these sentiments are broader and deeper than in the recent past, and quantified it starkly: in 1994, a majority of Republicans had unfavorable impressions of the Democratic Party, but just 17% had very unfavorable opinions... Since then, highly negative views have more than doubled: 43% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats now view the opposite party in strongly negative terms. Pew concluded that Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan antipathy is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in recent history.

More recent polling reinforces this trend. By 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as more immoral than other Americans—up dramatically from 47% and 35% in 2016. And as of late 2025, Americans increasingly see the country as more divided than at any time since the Civil War. Recent Pew data also shows partisan anger reaching new highs — Democrats' anger is higher now than during Trump's first term, when a peak of 34% expressed anger... It's also the highest share expressed by members of either party in surveys dating back to 1997.

Ideological self-identification

Gallup's tracking shows a real, if less dramatic, shift: Republicans have always been most likely to identify as conservative, but in 2024, 77% described themselves as such, marking a new high. Over time, the percentage of Americans identifying as moderate has declined from an average of 43% in 1992 to 34% in 2024... while the percentage identifying as liberal increased from 17% in 1992 to 25% in 2016.

An important caveat: are policy positions actually farther apart?

Political scientist Frances Lee argues the picture is more complicated than "everything is worse." Politicians aren't necessarily farther apart on policy issues than in the past — what's often missed are changes in the scope of policy issues over time, since many of today's votes are narrower in effect than 1960s civil rights legislation, making historical comparisons difficult. She suggests much of what looks like new "division" is actually just voting behavior becoming more predictable — unlike the bipartisan support for the Civil Rights Act of 1964, today's politicians tend to vote strictly with their party on divisive topics.

A global phenomenon, but the U.S. stands out

This isn't unique to America — political scientists have uncovered a similar trend across the globe, not just in countries with two dominant parties but in nations with diverse societal compositions, including well-established multiparty democracies like Switzerland, Denmark and New Zealand, and in emerging economies such as Bulgaria, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Poland. Even so, while political polarization is growing in other countries worldwide, it is more dramatic in the United States.

Bottom line

So the honest answer is: it depends on what you're measuring.

•If you mean how much Americans dislike and distrust the opposing party (affective polarization) — yes, this is genuinely at record or near-record highs in the modern polling era (since the 1990s).
•If you mean how far apart the parties are on actual policy positions — the picture is murkier; some scholars argue the "distance" is partly an artifact of straighter party-line voting rather than a bigger substantive gap.
•If you zoom out over the full sweep of U.S. history — the current era, while intense, may not exceed the polarization of periods like the Civil War era, even though it does — by legislative voting metrics — mark the most divided Congress since Reconstruction.

Citations (18)

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    Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more ... century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is ...”

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    Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today

    Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow duri...”

  3. 3usc.eduAcademic
    Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today

    Source excerpt: “The NOMINATE data has characterized today’s polarization in some interesting ways, namely that the Republican Party has experienced a dramatic shift t...”

  4. 4usc.eduAcademic
    Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today

    Source excerpt: “Some political scientists have pointed out that — viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries — today’s levels of polarization are n...”

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    Source excerpt: “But today, these sentiments are broader and deeper than in the recent past. ”

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    Source excerpt: “In 1994, hardly a time of amicable partisan relations, a majority of Republicans had unfavorable impressions of the Democratic Party, but just 17% had...”

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    Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center

    Source excerpt: “Most w Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan antipathy is deeper and more extensive – than at any point i...”

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    Source excerpt: “Pew Research Center polling reveals a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as ...”

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    Source excerpt: “Diane Stirling Oct. 23, 2025 ... Americans increasingly see the country as more divided than at any time since the Civil War. ”

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    Source excerpt: “Democrats’ anger is higher now than during Republican President Donald Trump’s first term, when a peak of 34% expressed anger. It’s also the highest s...”

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    U.S. Political Parties Historically Polarized Ideologically

    Source excerpt: “... Republicans have always been most likely to identify as conservative, but in 2024, 77% described themselves as such, marking a new high by two per...”

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    U.S. Political Parties Historically Polarized Ideologically

    Source excerpt: “Most notably, the percentage of Americans identifying as moderate has declined from an average of 43% in 1992 to 34% in 2024, while conservatism has b...”

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    U.S. Political Parties Historically Polarized Ideologically

    Source excerpt: “Meanwhile, the percentage identifying as liberal increased from 17% in 1992 to 25% in 2016 and has since remained near that level. ”

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    Source excerpt: “However, that doesn’t mean politicians are farther apart on policy issues than in the past, says Frances Lee, a political scientist now at Princeton U...”

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    Why are we so politically polarized? Here’s what research says | Knowable Magazine

    Source excerpt: “In fact, Lee adds, while some measurements suggest more division, what they actually show is simply that the voting behavior of politicians has become...”

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    Why are we so politically polarized? Here’s what research says | Knowable Magazine

    Source excerpt: “But in the past decade, political scientists have uncovered a similar trend across the globe — not just in countries with two invariably dominating po...”

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    Why are we so politically polarized? Here’s what research says | Knowable Magazine

    Source excerpt: “Such divisions have been reported in well-established multiparty democracies like Switzerland, Denmark and New Zealand, and in emerging economies such...”

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    Source excerpt: “2 While political polarization is growing in other countries worldwide, it is more dramatic in the United States. ”