Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?
Yes, stopping immigration (or reducing it to near-zero net levels) would cause labor shortages in the US and similar advanced economies, particularly in specific sectors, while slowing overall labor force and economic growth. This follows from demographics, the current role of immigrants in the workforce, and evidence from economic studies and real-world reductions.[1]
Demographic Reality and Labor Force Contribution
The US-born working-age population (roughly 18–65) has slowed dramatically and begun shrinking in recent years due to low fertility (below replacement since ~2008) and aging Baby Boomers retiring. Immigration has been the primary or sole driver of labor force growth for decades.[1]
Immigrants add to both labor supply and demand (as consumers and sometimes entrepreneurs), so the economy is not a fixed pie of jobs.
Sector-Specific Impacts
Immigrants are concentrated in certain industries and occupations where shortages would hit hardest:
These are often physically demanding, seasonal, lower-wage, or location-specific jobs that many native-born workers are less willing or able to fill at prevailing wages, due to preferences, skills, mobility (which has declined), education levels, or alternatives. Demand in services, care, construction, and food production continues to grow with an aging/richer population.[1]
Evidence from Reductions and Studies
Counterarguments and Nuances
Some argue that stopping immigration would raise wages for low-skilled natives (by reducing competition), attract more natives into those jobs, spur automation, or improve conditions—as claimed in some narratives about the 1920s. There is evidence of modest wage effects for the most directly competing groups (e.g., prior low-skilled immigrants or high-school dropouts) in some studies (e.g., Borjas), and higher wages could draw some people in or encourage capital investment.[15]
However:
In short, labor markets are dynamic, not zero-sum. Immigrants fill gaps created by native demographic stagnation and preferences, support growth, and often complement rather than displace natives. Stopping immigration would produce shortages (acute in immigrant-heavy sectors), slower growth, and broader economic costs that outweigh localized wage gains for some groups. Policy debates center more on levels, skills mix, legality/enforcement, and integration than an absolute stop.
Citations (17)
- https://econofact.org/immigration-and-waning-us-labor-force-growth
Backs: “This follows from demographics, the current role of immigrants in the workforce, and evidence from economic studies and real-world reductions.”
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/forbrn.nr0.htm
Backs: “They have higher labor force participation rates on average (especially prime-age men) because they are younger and more likely to migrate for work.”
- https://www.epi.org/publication/the-u-s-born-labor-force-will-shrink-over-the-next-decade-achieving-historically-normal-gdp-growth-rates-will-be-impossible-unless-immigration-flows-are-sustained/
Backs: “Zero or near-zero net immigration would drop sustainable monthly job growth to very low levels (tens of thousands or near zero in some estimates), far below historical norms, constraining GDP growth.”
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-migrant-halt-may-wipe-potential-job-growth-2025-06-24/
Backs: “Zero or near-zero net immigration would drop sustainable monthly job growth to very low levels (tens of thousands or near zero in some estimates), far below historical norms, constraining GDP growth.”
- https://usafacts.org/articles/which-industries-employ-the-most-immigrant-workers/
Backs: “Construction: ~26–30% foreign-born (higher in trades like drywall, roofing, laborers; even higher shares in states like CA, FL, TX).”
- https://www.nahb.org/blog/2026/04/Which-States-and-Construction-Trades-Depend-the-Most-on-Immigrant-Workers
Backs: “Construction: ~26–30% foreign-born (higher in trades like drywall, roofing, laborers; even higher shares in states like CA, FL, TX).”
- https://www.epi.org/chart/immigration-faq-2025-table-2-immigrants-comprise-a-significant-share-of-workers-in-both-high-and-low-paying-major-occupations-top-10-occupations-for-immigrants-by-share-of-employment-in-the-o/
Backs: “Leisure/hospitality, food services, cleaning/maintenance, healthcare support, transportation: Elevated shares (20%+ in many cases).”
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/14/immigration-crackdown-causes-massive-shortages-unskilled-labor/
Backs: “The Labor Department has noted risks of food production disruptions and that unemployed Americans are unlikely to fill farm shortages in sufficient numbers even at current wages.”
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewtisch/2026/05/28/the-real-immigration-tragedy/
Backs: “The Labor Department has noted risks of food production disruptions and that unemployed Americans are unlikely to fill farm shortages in sufficient numbers even at current wages.”
- https://www.nber.org/digest/202606/what-happens-when-flow-immigrant-workers-suddenly-stops
Backs: “Firms demanded more guest workers rather than substituting natives. Immigrants and natives were complementary.”
- https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-labor-market-impact-of-deportations/
Backs: “Deportation programs (e.g., Secure Communities) have been associated with declines in native employment in affected areas, partly because immigrants fill complementary roles (e.g., childcare enabling more native mothers to work) and support local demand.”
- https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23125/revisions/w23125.rev0.pdf
Backs: “Deportation programs (e.g., Secure Communities) have been associated with declines in native employment in affected areas, partly because immigrants fill complementary roles (e.g., childcare enabling more native mothers to work) and support local demand.”
- https://www.lse.ac.uk/CFM/assets/pdf/CFM-Discussion-Papers-2026/CFMDP2026-04-Summary.pdf
Backs: “Low-skilled often complements natives by filling roles that free others for higher-value work.”
- https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/rising-immigration-has-helped-cool-an-overheated-labor-market
Backs: “Low-skilled often complements natives by filling roles that free others for higher-value work.”
- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/22/business/economy/immigration-trump-economy.html
Backs: “There is evidence of modest wage effects for the most directly competing groups (e.g., prior low-skilled immigrants or high-school dropouts) in some studies (e.g., Borjas), and higher wages could draw some people in or encourage capital investment.”
- https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2024/10/immigration-working-class-wages/680128/
Backs: “Most rigorous empirical work finds small, zero, or positive average effects of immigration on native wages/employment overall, due to demand creation, task specialization/occupational upgrading by natives, and capital adjustment. Large reductions often shrink the economic pie.”
- https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/fall-2017/how-immigration-affects-workers-two-wrong-models-right-one
Backs: “Most rigorous empirical work finds small, zero, or positive average effects of immigration on native wages/employment overall, due to demand creation, task specialization/occupational upgrading by natives, and capital adjustment. Large reductions often shrink the economic pie.”