Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Leans yesSays it is contested

Polarization is debatable — I'll pull the latest data to see if it's truly worse than past eras.

Yes, by most modern measures — but with historical context.

Compared to the last 50-70 years: Yes, significantly worse

Pew Research Center analysis found the perception that polarization has increased is correct:

> Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years

Specifically:

•In the 117th U.S. Congress from 2021 to 2023, there were about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans.

•For comparison, there were more than 160 moderates five decades earlier during the 92nd U.S. Congress from 1971-1972

Other long-term measures show the same steep trend:

•The gap between the political values of Democrats and Republicans is now larger than at any point in Pew Research Center surveys dating back to 1994

•On average, there is now a 36-percentage-point difference between Democrats and Republicans across ten political values questions. The current gap is substantially wider than two decades ago (the gap was just 15 points in 1994)

•When Pew started the survey in 1987 the average difference was 10 percentage points; in 2012, it was 18 percentage points

•In 1994 about 10% held consistently ideological views; by 2014 it increased to 21% while ideological overlap significantly declined

And:

> overall, on this scale of 10 political values, the median (middle) Republican is now more conservative than 97% of Democrats, and the median Democrat is more liberal than 95% of Republicans

By comparison, in 1994 Just 64% of Republicans were to the right of the median Democrat, while 70% of Democrats were to the left of the median Republican

Affective polarization also at historic highs

Affective polarization — how negatively partisans feel about the opposing party vs. their own — has increased markedly:

•In the study, researchers found that in the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries they examined

•Levels of affective polarisation have risen more than two-fold since the 1970s... The gap had widened to 56 by 2020

Compared to the last 150+ years: Comparable to Civil War era, not unprecedented

When viewed on a longer historical continuum, current elite polarization is extreme but not entirely new:

•Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era

•Polarization of the Democratic and Republican Parties is higher than at any time since the end of the Civil War

•Because the NOMINATE data... shows that partisan elites in the U.S. are as polarized today as they were around the time of the Civil War

The NOMINATE scoring, based on roll-call voting records running from -1 (most liberal) to +1 (most conservative), also shows:

•Today, the overlap interval is zero

•"In the 1960s, for instance, you had intervals where about 50 percent of the legislators in the two parties overlapped."

Some political scientists have pointed out that — viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries — today’s levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery

And historians note:

> for all the hype about the ruptures and partisan rancor in contemporary American society, the strife pales in comparison with much of the nation's past

Similarly, while political groups have moved further apart in recent years, researchers note these divisions are still fuzzy, and Americans are not split into entirely opposing tribes when it comes to the issues

Summary

•Last ~50 years: Yes - Congress, voters, and affective dislike are more polarized than at any point since at least the 1970s-1990s, with the moderate middle shrinking and the ideological overlap between parties nearly vanishing.

•Last ~150 years: Current levels rival, but do not clearly exceed, the high polarization of the late 19th century around the Civil War and Reconstruction. Physical violence and institutional breakdown were worse then, even if ideological sorting is more complete now.

Citations (4)

1dailymiaminews.comLow provenance
Political polarization is a dating love-block and it may be worse in Trump's second term - Daily Miami News
Backs: “Compared to the last 50-70 years: Yes, significantly worse. Pew Research Center analysis found the perception that polarization has increased is correct: Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years”
attribution, article, points to yes. Claim: Pew Research Center analysis found the perception that polarization has increased is correct; Democrats and Republicans are farther apart than at any time in 50 years.
2pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Partisan divides over political values widen | Pew Research Center
Backs: “For comparison, there were more than 160 moderates five decades earlier during the 92nd U.S. Congress from 1971-1972. Other long-term measures show the same steep trend: The gap between the political values of Democrats and Republicans is now larger than at any point in Pew Research Center surveys dating back to 1994”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Gap between Democrats' and Republicans' political values is larger than any point since 1994, with 36-point average difference across ten values questions.
3usc.eduAcademic
Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War
Backs: “When viewed on a longer historical continuum, current elite polarization is extreme but not entirely new: Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized…”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Elite polarization is comparable to the Civil War era; Congress most polarized since Reconstruction, so extreme but not unprecedented.
4pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Partisan polarization, in Congress and among public, is greater than ever
Backs: “shows that partisan elites in the U.S. are as polarized today as they were around the time of the Civil War. The NOMINATE scoring, based on roll-call voting records running from -1 (most liberal) to +1 (most conservative), also shows:”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: NOMINATE data shows partisan elites are as polarized today as around the time of the Civil War.