Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
The USC Today article's headline says polarization is at its worst since the Civil War, but it also notes scholars who say today's levels are not unusual over two centuries; Facing History says the public is less divided than before.
Short answer: Yes, in most measurable ways—but with important caveats about what kind of polarization we're talking about.
The case that it's genuinely worse
Elite/congressional polarization is well-documented and severe by historical standards. Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era. That said, some scholars note that viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum.
Affective polarization (how much people dislike the other side, as opposed to disagreeing on policy) has risen sharply and is arguably the most alarming trend. Levels of affective polarization have risen more than two-fold since the 1970s, with the gap on feeling-thermometer ratings widening from 27 points in 1978 to 56 points by 2020. This isn't unique to the U.S., but America stands out: the US has experienced the most rapid growth in affective polarization among the general electorate since 1980 among 12 OECD countries studied, with only five other countries seeing smaller increases and six actually experiencing declines.
Ideological sorting has also intensified. A recent Cambridge study analyzing decades of survey data found that polarization almost flatlined during the nineties and noughties, but starting in 2008, divisions across the board steadily rose, driven largely by one side: the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative.
The case for skepticism
Several political scientists urge caution about "worse than ever" narratives:
Bottom line
By most objective metrics—congressional voting patterns, partisan animosity, and party sorting—polarization is worse than it's been in at least several decades, and the U.S. is polarizing faster than most peer democracies. However, whether this represents an unprecedented historical low point (versus, say, the Civil War era or Gilded Age) is genuinely debated among scholars, and there's evidence that ordinary Americans agree on more policy substance than the polarized political discourse would suggest.
Citations (11)
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow duri...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Congress ideological distance grew from the 1970s and is now more polarized than any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Some political scientists have pointed out that viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries todays levels of polarization are n...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Some scholars say that, across two centuries of data, today's polarization is not such an alarming anomaly compared to the slavery era.
- Yes, political polarization has gotten much worse - Econlib
Source excerpt: “Levels of affective polarisation have risen more than two-fold since the 1970s when the American National Election Studies, a quadrennial academic sur...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Affective polarization has risen more than two-fold since the 1970s, with the thermometer gap widening from 27 points in 1978 to 56 in 2020.
- Why are we so politically polarized? Here’s what research says | Knowable Magazine
Source excerpt: “The US has experienced the most rapid growth in affective polarization among the general electorate since 1980 among the 12 OECD countries considered ...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: The US had the most rapid growth in affective polarization since 1980 among 12 OECD countries studied.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: “The University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab analysed opinions on a wide range of issues – from abortion and equality to traditional values ...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Cambridge study found polarization flatlined in the nineties and noughties, then divisions rose steadily from 2008.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: “Based on issues surveyed, the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: The US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 than 1988, while the right was only 2.8% more conservative.
- Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity
Source excerpt: “However, that doesn’t mean politicians are farther apart on policy issues than in the past, says Frances Lee, a political scientist now at Princeton U...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Frances Lee argues politicians are not necessarily farther apart on policy than in the past, since the scope of issues has changed.
- Political Polarization in the United States | Facing History & Ourselves
Source excerpt: “In addition, the general public is less divided on a range of issues than in the past. Many policies have bipartisan support, or support from members ...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: The general public is less divided on a range of issues than in the past, and many policies have bipartisan support.
- Political Polarization in the United States | Facing History & Ourselves
Source excerpt: “For example: 78% of Americans are in favor of encouraging highly skilled immigrants to come to the United States. 13 · 60% of voters support spending ...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: 78% of Americans favor encouraging highly skilled immigrants, and 60% of voters support major spending on home energy efficiency.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: “· However, De-Wit argues that polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is. ”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: A Cambridge researcher argues polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: ““Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions ... Dr David Young said: “In the past, someone with left-wing views o...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Past people mixed left and right views across issues; that is rarer now, so views look more consistent and extreme.