Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
The Conversation piece argues 'more polarized than ever' claims ignore history such as the Civil War, while Pew, Cambridge and V-Dem sources show polarization at or near modern highs.
[1][2][3][4]Yes, by many modern metrics, political polarization in the United States is worse than it has been in recent decades (roughly the last 50–100 years), though it does not approach the extremes of the Civil War era or match the social upheaval of the 1960s in every respect. Polarization has multiple dimensions—ideological (policy/issue differences), affective (emotional dislike of the other side), elite/congressional vs. mass public, and sorting (alignment of identity, demographics, and partisanship)—and trends vary somewhat by measure. Data consistently show a sharp rise since the 1970s–1990s, accelerating after ~2008 in several analyses.[2]
Congressional and Elite Polarization
Using DW-NOMINATE scores (which place legislators on a liberal-conservative spectrum based on roll-call votes, comparable over time), Democrats and Republicans in Congress are farther apart ideologically than at any point in the past 50 years. Both parties have grown more internally cohesive (homogeneous), with far fewer moderates.[1]
Public Opinion and Issue Polarization
Partisan gaps on core values and issues have widened substantially. Pew Research data tracking political values since 1994 show the average gap between Republicans/leaners and Democrats/leaners growing from about 15 points to 36+ points.[5]
Affective polarization (dislike or distrust of the opposing party/side) has risen sharply. Partisans view the other side more negatively on feeling thermometers, are more reluctant about intermarriage or social ties across lines, and increasingly see the other party as a threat to the country. Gaps in views of presidents, government, and institutions are historically wide.[8]
Broader and Comparative Measures
V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) data on societal polarization into hostile camps (affecting social relationships beyond politics) show the U.S. score rising sharply since ~2000, reaching “pernicious” levels (high on a 0–4 scale, e.g., around 3.8 by ~2020). The U.S. stands out as the only advanced, long-standing Western democracy with such intense and prolonged polarization in the post-1950 period; peers like France or Italy had shorter spikes. High polarization correlates with democratic erosion risks in global data.[3]
The U.S. is unusual in having roughly equal-sized left and right clusters, which can make conflict feel more intense than in countries with lopsided majorities.[2]
Historical Comparisons
Caveats and nuances: Mass public views are often less polarized than elites or activists; many Americans hold mixed views or prioritize non-political life. “Sorting” (people aligning identities and living in like-minded environments) and elite cues explain much of the rise more than pure extremism on every issue. Polarization is not inevitable or ever-rising—it has ebbed historically—and some recent data hint at plateaus. Local communities often show more resilience than national politics. Causes include post-civil rights realignment, rising inequality, media fragmentation/algorithms, geographic sorting, and declining social capital/trust.[10]
In short, for the contemporary era of stable democracy, polarization—especially partisan, affective, and elite—is at or near historic highs and more sustained/pernicious than peers. It contributes to gridlock, eroded norms, and risks of further democratic strain, even if it falls short of America’s worst historical ruptures. Trends are measurable and well-documented across independent sources like Pew, Gallup, ANES, DW-NOMINATE/Voteview, and V-Dem.
Citations (10)
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
Backs: “[[1]](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/)”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Democrats and Republicans in Congress are farther apart ideologically than at any point in the past 50 years, with overlap vanishing by the early 2000s.
- https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states
Backs: “[[2]](https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states)”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Cambridge analysis of ANES data found a 64% increase in polarization on social and political issues from 1988 to 2024, mostly after 2008.
- https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2022/01/what-happens-when-democracies-become-perniciously-polarized
Backs: “[[3]](https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2022/01/what-happens-when-democracies-become-perniciously-polarized)”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: V-Dem data show U.S. societal polarization at pernicious levels, unique among advanced long-standing democracies.
- https://theconversation.com/think-the-us-is-more-polarized-than-ever-you-dont-know-history-131600
Backs: “[[4]](https://theconversation.com/think-the-us-is-more-polarized-than-ever-you-dont-know-history-131600)”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Civil War era was far worse; historians reject 'worse than ever' claims that ignore history.
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/10/05/takeaways-on-americans-growing-partisan-divide-over-political-values/
Backs: “Pew Research data tracking political values since 1994 show the average gap between Republicans/leaners and Democrats/leaners growing from about 15 points to 36+ points.”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Pew values data show the average partisan gap growing from about 15 points in 1994 to 36+ points.
- https://news.gallup.com/poll/655190/political-parties-historically-polarized-ideologically.aspx
Backs: “Gallup data show declining “moderates” overall, with Republicans more uniformly conservative (record highs identifying as such) and Democrats more liberal (doubling over decades). Parties are more ideologically pure.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Gallup data show fewer moderates, with Republicans more conservative and Democrats more liberal, making parties ideologically purer.
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/changing-partisan-coalitions-in-a-politically-divided-nation/
Backs: “Parties differ more by race/ethnicity, education, geography, and religion than in the past, amplifying divides even if pure issue polarization is sometimes overstated.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Parties differ more by race, education, geography and religion than in the past, increasing demographic sorting.
- https://www.deseret.com/2024/1/15/24002302/dangerously-divided-united-states/
Backs: “Gaps in views of presidents, government, and institutions are historically wide.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Affective polarization has risen sharply, with partisans viewing the other side more negatively and as a threat.
- https://archive.is/2026.07.05-104443/https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/05/politics/trump-july-4-america-250-civil-war-analysis
Backs: “Some historians argue today’s partisan sorting and affective hatred make politics feel more zero-sum and gridlocked, even if street-level chaos differs.”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: 1960s-70s had more social conflict and violence but lower party polarization; some argue today's sorting makes politics more zero-sum.
- https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/10/style/america-is-atomizing.html
Backs: “Causes include post-civil rights realignment, rising inequality, media fragmentation/algorithms, geographic sorting, and declining social capital/trust.”
background, article, neutral. Claim: Caveats and causes of polarization, including media fragmentation, geographic sorting and declining social trust.