What is the current state of US politics?

Current US politics is shifting fast — I'll pull the latest on Washington's balance of power and key issues.

As of September 21, 2026, the United States is in a period of unified Republican control under high polarization, heading into highly consequential midterm elections:

1. Executive Branch - Second Trump Administration

Donald Trump remains president in his second term, with the administration continuing to run the executive branch. Vice President is JD Vance.

Public standing has continued to slip a year into the second term:

•Trump's approval rating stands at 37%, down from 40% in the fall. Other polling averages place him in the mid-to-high 30% range. At inauguration his approval was 47%.

•By more than two-to-one, Americans say the administration's actions have been worse than they expected (50%) rather than better (21%).

•Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump's policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office. The decline in support has come exclusively among Republicans. Last year, 67% said they supported all or most of Trump's plans and policies. Today, 56% do.

Confidence is down on all six presidential qualities measured by Pew since last year, particularly among Republicans. Republican confidence that Trump acts ethically in office fell from 55% to 42%.

Polarization is extreme. Trump averages just 4.2% approval among Democrats in his second term.

2. Congress - Narrow Republican Majorities

The 119th Congress (2025-2026) is under Republican control in both chambers, but with historically narrow margins:

•Senate: Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats for power to change hands. Raw count is 53 Republicans and 45 Democrats, with two independents who caucus with Democrats. Senate Majority Leader is John Thune (R-S.D.) and Senate Minority Leader is Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

•House: The GOP holds a 220-215 majority. Other tallies put it at 218-213 when counting seated members, with vacancies from deaths and resignations making the working majority fragile. Speaker is Mike Johnson (R-LA). Estimates are that Republicans gained around five to nine seats from redistricting ahead of 2026.

Congress is set for a busy and raucous 2026, despite the looming distraction of the November midterms. The GOP is eager to advance President Trump’s agenda while they still control the House and Senate, which won’t last if Democrats wrestle back control of one or both chambers.

3. The 2026 Midterms - Dominant Political Story

All 435 seats in the lower chamber will be on the ballot on November 3, 2026, determining the makeup of the 120th Congress. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats will be contested.

Early voting for the 2026 midterms began on Friday in several states, initiating the final campaign phase for control of Congress.

Forecasts:

•In the House, the GOP majority is imperiled by an electoral environment in which Democrats lead the generic ballot by around 6 percentage points. Right now, the Democrats have a big enough lead (6 or so points) to be favored to take back the House despite the GOP's redistricting gains.

•Since the current two-party system, the President's party has averaged losing 28 seats in the House in midterms. If that happened this cycle, Democrats would gain control of the House.

•In the Senate, control is harder for Democrats. Republicans are expected to hold their majority while Democrats retake the House, according to an analysis presented. One model puts likelihood of a Democratic House and Republican Senate at 43.3%, with Democrats needing four net gains because the vice president can break a 50-50 tie.

Redistricting is a major factor. After the Supreme Court's conservative majority ruled in favor of Texas lawmakers, Republicans head into 2026 with an edge in the redistricting fight kicked off by President Trump to help maintain Republican control of the House.

Pessimism is high. Americans appear to be approaching the midterms with uncertainty, with no single post-election scenario receiving majority support in a September 4-9 survey of 1,200 adults.

4. Polarization and Partisan Dynamics

•Democrats overwhelmingly say their congressional leadership should stand up to Trump - 82% (up from 70% last year) want leaders pushing back even if that makes it harder to address problems.

•Among Republicans, 61% say GOP members of Congress do not have an obligation to support Trump if they disagree with him, up from 55% last year.

•Only 38% of Republicans say congressional Republicans have an obligation to support Trump's policies.

•This contributes to political polarization that has become a prominent feature of contemporary American politics.

5. Key Policy and Institutional Flashpoints in 2026

•Government Funding: Funding for most federal agencies expires January 30, and without a bipartisan deal, those agencies will partially close. Odds of shutdown are seen as lower after the 43-day closure forced by Democrats last fall.

•Foreign Policy: Venezuela could upend funding deals. Democrats are incensed at President Trump's invasion of the nation without congressional approval. There is also a growing bipartisan push to slap Russia with sanctions over its ongoing war with Ukraine, while U.S. envoys met with Putin and Zelensky in early September.

•Health Care: Obamacare tax credits expired on December 31, resulting in premium hikes for millions. Some sort of fix is seen as possible before midterms as lawmakers fear voter backlash.

•Immigration and Courts: The Supreme Court voted 6-3 to allow the Trump administration to end legal protections for migrants from Haiti and Syria. The Court will take up birthright citizenship in Trump v. Barbara, a challenge to an executive order denying citizenship documents to some US-born children of undocumented immigrants.

•Economy, Tariffs and Tech: The economy showed resilience with three consecutive months of strong job growth as of June 6, 2026, but cost of living and economic policy remain top vulnerabilities for Trump. An upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff power could put Republicans in a bind, with Trump predicted to lose battles on reciprocal tariffs and birthright citizenship. AI regulation and cryptocurrency rules are also front and center with bipartisan interest but uncertain passage.

In short, the current state is a low-approval incumbent presidency governing with razor-thin congressional majorities, facing an energized opposition, a courts-driven policy agenda, and a midterm election that will determine whether Trump faces divided government and multiplied congressional investigations in the second half of his term and shape the landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential race.

Citations (3)

1pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Confidence in Trump Dips in 2026, and Fewer Now Say They Support His Policies and Plans | Pew Research Center
Backs: “Donald Trump remains president in his second term, with the administration continuing to run the executive branch. Vice President is JD Vance. Public standing has continued to slip a year into the second term:”
statistic, article. Claim: Trump's approval has slipped a year into his second term, with fewer Americans supporting all or most of his policies and plans.
2substack.comBlogs and newsletters
Episode 33: Where the Race for Congress Stands 5 Months Out, with Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball
Backs: “The 119th Congress (2025-2026) is under Republican control in both chambers, but with historically narrow margins: Senate: Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats for power to change hands.”
evidence, article. Claim: Congress is under Republican control in both chambers with historically narrow margins, and the race for control is analyzed ahead of the midterms.
3kiplinger.comCommercial contentquality 0.85
Congress is Set for a Busy Winter | Kiplinger
Backs: “Other tallies put it at 218-213 when counting seated members, with vacancies from deaths and resignations making the working majority fragile.”
background, article. Claim: House majority tallies and a busy congressional agenda despite midterm distractions, including vacancies making the working majority fragile.