Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Polarization past vs. present — I'll check what current research says.
Yes - compared to recent decades, but not compared to all of American history.
Worse than the last 50-75 years
By most quantitative measures of the modern era, polarization is at a high point:
Political science measures based on congressional roll-call voting show the same trend. Using DW-NOMINATE scores:
> Polarization of the Democratic and Republican Parties is higher than at any time since the end of the Civil War.
> The level of polarization in Congress is now the highest since the end of the Civil War and shows no sign that it will abate.
Not worse than the most divisive periods in U.S. history
Historians caution against calling the present the most divided period ever:
> "The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War," he says. "In the mid-19th Century, differences were so profound representatives carried weapons into Congress."
Broader historical analyses make a similar point:
> for all the hype about the ruptures and partisan rancor in contemporary American society, the strife pales in comparison with much of the nation's past. ... There have been long stretches of American history in which conflicts were far worse
The Civil War era, Reconstruction, the late 19th century battles over industrialization and immigration, and the 1960s-1970s (Vietnam, civil rights, assassinations and political violence) all featured deeper - and often violent - national fractures than today.
What makes today's polarization feel especially intense to many Americans is not just disagreements on issues, but:
In short: polarization is measurably worse than at any point in living memory and in the last 50-150 years of congressional history, but it is not unprecedented - the Civil War era was substantially more polarized and violent.
Citations (5)
- Researchers Find Broad Impacts from Political Polarization
Backs: “By most quantitative measures of the modern era, polarization is at a high point: Previous research suggests that political polarization in the United States is more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members of the nation's major political parties”
- Political polarization is a dating love-block and it may be worse in Trump's second term - Daily Miami News
Backs: “Previous research suggests that political polarization in the United States is more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members of the nation's major political parties. A Pew Research Center analysis from 2022 found the perception that polarization has increased is correct: Democrats and Republicans are…”
- Partisan polarization, in Congress and among public, is greater than ever
Backs: “And 94% of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican, up from 70% in 1994. Across 48 different questions covering values about government, foreign policy, social and economic issues, the average difference between the opinions of Republicans and Democrats now stands at 18 percentage points...nearly twice the…”
- Polity . Volume 46, Number 3 . July 2014 © 2014 Northeastern Political Science Association 0032-3497/14 www.palgravejournals.com/polity/
Backs: “Political science measures based on congressional roll-call voting show the same trend. Using DW-NOMINATE scores: Polarization of the Democratic and Republican Parties is higher than at any time since the end of the Civil War.”
- Are We Really Living in the Most Divisive Time in American History?
Backs: “"The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War," he says. "In the mid-19th Century, differences were so profound representatives carried weapons into Congress."”