What is the current state of US politics?

Current State of US Politics (as of mid-September 2026)

Trump's Approval Ratings Are Historically Weak
President Trump's approval numbers have been sliding for months. Polling averages as of September 12, 2026 show approval around 37-40% and disapproval around 57-63%, with Trump's net approval rating up slightly from its all-time low of -20.6, though still far from popular. Notably, this far into his first term, Trump was all the way up at -13.0, while Joe Biden was at net -11.3 at the same point in his presidency — meaning Trump is doing worse now than in his first term or than Biden did. Cost of living is the most important issue for voters heading into the midterms, with a plurality (47%) naming it their top concern, while Trump gets poor marks on the economy—71% disapproval versus 22% approval.

The Economy: Inflation and Stagflation Concerns
Economic troubles have been driven by tariff-driven inflation, with Q1 GDP at +2.0% but PCE inflation hitting 4.5%—a stagflation pattern last seen in the 1970s. The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates, a move the White House criticized — a senior deputy press secretary called it an "unfortunate decision" not "backed by a particularly compelling economic case," attributing persistent inflation to oil prices.

Congress and the Midterms
Both chambers are in play. All 435 House seats are up in November, with 218 needed for a majority; Republicans currently hold 218 seats to Democrats' 214. As of April 2026 Republicans held a 217–212 margin, and history suggests Republicans could lose 28 seats and thus control of the House. A September 2026 Cook Political Report analysis shows Democrats leading in 206 races and Republicans leading in 208 — an extremely tight race. There's also been unusually high turnover: as of September 2026, 61 representatives and two non-voting delegates have announced retirement, the second-most in US history next to 1992.

Redistricting Wars
A major storyline has been an aggressive nationwide redistricting battle. California and Texas were two of seven states that changed their congressional maps (along with Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, and Virginia), while four more states introduced redistricting legislation. Legal fights followed — Virginia voters approved a map that could give Democrats four additional seats, but in May the Virginia Supreme Court ruled it unconstitutional and blocked its use.

Averted Shutdown Ahead of Midterms
Unlike earlier in the year, Congress moved quickly to avoid election-season disruption. The House approved a stopgap spending bill in a 370-48 vote, keeping government funded into early December and taking a shutdown off the table ahead of the midterms. This follows a turbulent year — two shutdowns occurred earlier in 2026 stemming from disputes over federal immigration enforcement following the killing of Alex Pretti by CBP agents, with a four-day shutdown in late January/early February and a 76-day partial shutdown affecting DHS from mid-February to late April.

Political Violence, Legal Battles, and Institutional Strain
The year has been marked by significant tension. In September 2025, Charlie Kirk, a well-known conservative activist and Turning Point USA leader, was assassinated while speaking publicly at a Utah university. In its aftermath, the DOJ opened investigations into perceived opponents of the president and filed indictments against former FBI Director James Comey, NY AG Letitia James, and former National Security Advisor John Bolton, though courts repeatedly deemed related US attorney appointments invalid, affecting the viability of the prosecutions. Other flashpoints include a fight over renaming the Kennedy Center after Trump — a judge ruled Trump's name had to be removed, and the center's board voted to shut the venue down entirely as Trump insisted it would only reopen with his name added.

2028 Speculation Already Brewing
Even before the midterms, GOP succession talk has started: Trump has floated both VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as potential 2028 contenders, with other possible candidates including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

Bottom line: The US political landscape right now is defined by an unpopular president heading into consequential midterms, an economy struggling with inflation, an intense and legally contentious redistricting battle for House control, ongoing institutional/legal clashes between the administration and courts, and a Congress trying to project stability by punting budget fights past Election Day.