Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

I'll pull current evidence on how common voter fraud actually is in the US.

In the United States, voter fraud exists but research, court reviews, and government investigations consistently find it is extremely rare and not at a scale to affect election outcomes.

What studies show

The consensus from credible research is that the rate of illegal voting is extremely rare.

> "Research has been consistent over time that voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome," said Alice Clapman, senior counsel for voting rights at the Brennan Center for Justice

Specific estimates include:

•The Brennan Center's report The Truth About Voter Fraud reviewed elections meticulously studied for voter fraud and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. The report noted it is more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls."

•A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast

•Arizona State University projects found 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud nationwide from 2000-2012, and a follow-up study found zero successful prosecutions for impersonation fraud in five states from 2012-2016

Government investigations have reached the same conclusion:

•The Department of Justice investigated over 300 million votes cast between 2002 and 2007 and found no cases of voter impersonation fraud

•Courts have also looked at this issue. For example, the Fifth Circuit noted "only two convictions for in-person voter impersonation fraud out of 20 million votes cast in the decade" before Texas passed its voter ID law, and the Fourth Circuit noted North Carolina "failed to identify even a single individual who has ever been charged with committing in-person voter fraud in North Carolina."

For the 2020 election, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued a statement calling the 2020 election "the most secure in American history" and noting "there is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."

How small the numbers are in context

Increased investigations in recent years still find only a tiny fraction of ballots affected:

•The Associated Press contacted local election officials in six swing states after 2020 and found 475 potential voter fraud cases — which amounts to an extraordinarily small percentage of the more than 25 million ballots that were cast in those six states

•In Ohio, Secretary of State Frank LaRose announced his office had found 75 voters who allegedly cast a ballot in the state and another state in 2020 out of almost 6 million ballots cast in Ohio that year

Even the Heritage Foundation database — often cited to argue fraud is widespread — shows low rates when put in context. The database now documents 581 cases of proven voter fraud and 848 criminal convictions in 47 states. An analysis by Brookings using Heritage's own data found:

•In the highly contested state of Pennsylvania, Heritage data goes back 30 years and covers 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast and found only 39 cases of voter fraud

•The percentage of fraudulent votes in Arizona over the last 25 years of elections was a minuscule .0000845%, and no election outcome in the U.S. has ever been altered by ballot fraud

Brookings concluded that to come up with thousands of instances nationwide, Heritage staff had to go back decades where there have been hundreds of millions of votes cast and a very small number of cases have been found, none of which affected election outcomes.

Other syntheses put rates at:

•About 0.0000845% across Heritage case counts, 0.00006% for mail-ballot fraud over two decades in an MIT study

•0.000043% of mail ballots cast — about four cases per 10 million mail votes

Why isolated cases still occur

Voter fraud is not zero. Typical categories include:

•Voter or ballot fraud including a voter intentionally giving false information when registering to vote (e.g. false citizenship claims)

•Double voting, voting in the name of dead people, and individuals impersonating registered voters at the polls

•Fraudulent use of absentee ballots — Heritage's database contains just 206 cases of "Fraudulent Use of an Absentee Ballot," or roughly six or seven cases per year going back to 1988

Many reported incidents turn out to be traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or bad data matching practices, or voters who voted "accidentally in good faith, believing that they were eligible," particularly people with prior felony convictions confused about restoration of rights.

Election security systems

States have systems to prevent and detect fraud:

•States are required to routinely remove ineligible or deceased voters from their rolls and use tools like the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC) that help states share voter data

•Depending on voting method there are protections like signature matching, drop box surveillance, and poll worker training

•"States have very effective protections in place to prevent and detect voter fraud," and penalties are severe

Perception vs. reality

Research shows a gap between rhetoric and reality. While research has unequivocally demonstrated that there is essentially no voter fraud in US elections, the perception amongst Americans that it does exist is real, with a 2016 Washington Post poll finding 46 percent of Americans believe voter fraud occurred frequently. Scholars note the rhetoric surrounding voter fraud may serve as a greater threat to electoral integrity than actual prevalence.

Bottom line: While any fraud is taken seriously and prosecuted, nonpartisan studies, government investigations, and bipartisan election officials consistently find voter fraud is vanishingly rare in the United States and does not occur at a scale that could rig or determine national or statewide election outcomes.

Citations (3)

1whro.orgNot yet classified
How we know voter fraud is very rare in U.S. elections
Backs: “The consensus from credible research is that the rate of illegal voting is extremely rare. "Research has been consistent over time that voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome," said Alice Clapman, senior counsel for voting rights at the Brennan…”
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Backs: “"Research has been consistent over time that voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome," said Alice Clapman, senior counsel for voting rights at the Brennan Center for Justice. Specific estimates include: The Brennan Center's report The Truth About…”
3brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very | Brookings
Backs: “The database now documents 581 cases of proven voter fraud and 848 criminal convictions in 47 states. An analysis by Brookings using Heritage's own data found: In the highly contested state of Pennsylvania, Heritage data goes back 30 years and covers 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast and found only 39…”