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Claude Sonnet 5Sep 18, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

It's complicated—the answer depends heavily on which type of polarization you mean and what time period you're comparing to.

By recent historical standards: Yes, and dramatically so

Several measures point to modern U.S. polarization being unusually severe within the last century-plus:

In Congress: Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era, based on ideological scoring of how members vote. This data shows the Republican Party has experienced a dramatic shift to the right, and ideological moderates in both parties have all but disappeared.

Among voters (affective polarization): This is arguably where the most striking change has occurred. Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan antipathy is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in recent history. More concretely, the share of Republicans who view Democrats as "very unfavorable" has risen from 17% in 1994 to 62% in 2024, and the mirror image for Democrats is nearly identical. Similarly, Pew Research Center polling reveals a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as more immoral than other Americans—up dramatically from 47% and 35% in 2016.

Perception of division: A September 2024 Gallup poll found that a record 80 percent of U.S. adults believe Americans are greatly divided on the most important values, just 18 percent believe the country is united.

Geographic sorting: Geographic polarization has reinforced partisan sorting—in 1992, 39% of Americans lived in "landslide counties" where one presidential candidate won by 20+ percentage points; by 2024, 57% did.

By deep historical standards: No

Zoom out further, though, and today's divisions look much less extreme. As one Civil War historian put it: current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century, when between Lincoln's election and Lee's surrender in 1865, the nation literally broke apart, with more than 3 million men taking up arms. More broadly, some scholars argue that when viewed in a historical context, current societal divisions are minor compared to those which led to the major global conflicts of the 20th century.

An important nuance: feelings vs. actual policy gaps

Interestingly, some researchers argue the intensity of polarization may be overstated relative to actual policy disagreement. Cambridge researchers found both left- and right-leaning sides of the US population have stayed the same size since 1988, and the range of opinions within each cluster hasn't become more diverse—only the distance between the two has increased. One researcher argued polarization in the US can feel much worse than it is, because political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions are still fuzzy, and Americans are not split into entirely opposing tribes. This tracks with the general finding that there's a gap between affective polarization (dislike/distrust of the other party) and issue polarization (actual policy disagreement)—both parties increasingly view the other side as morally deficient, even though issue polling shows broad agreement on many specific policies.

How the U.S. compares globally

The U.S. also stands out internationally. The US has experienced the most rapid growth in affective polarization among the general electorate since 1980 among 12 OECD countries studied, with five other countries experiencing smaller increases and six experiencing declines. Relatedly, Cambridge researchers found no clear evidence that opinion polarization is increasing on a global scale, suggesting the American trajectory is somewhat exceptional. One explanation offered: the United States is unusual in having a left and a right of roughly equal size—this has been the case for a long time, and it may help explain why polarization in the US feels so intense.

Bottom line

If you're asking "worse than the Civil War or WWII-era global conflicts"—no. If you're asking "worse than any point in the last 100-150 years, especially in terms of how much Americans across party lines actively dislike and distrust each other"—the data strongly supports yes, and the U.S. is polarizing faster than most peer democracies. The most historically unusual feature isn't necessarily disagreement over policy, but the intensity of emotional/tribal hostility between partisans.

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