What is the current state of US politics?

Your question touches on fast-moving US politics — I'll pull the latest developments to give you an up-to-date picture.

As of September 18, 2026, the state of U.S. politics is dominated by President Donald Trump's second term and the upcoming November 2026 midterm elections:

1. The Executive Branch

President Donald Trump is in the second year of his second term. Coverage at the start of 2026 described him as continuing to try to centralize power on both domestic and foreign policy, including leaning hard on media organizations, universities, and law firms, and going around Congress.

At 80 years old this summer, he is ineligible to run in 2028, which has led to analysis that he is getting closer to being a lame duck if Democrats take back the House, and is expected to try to create legacy-establishing achievements.

2. Control of Congress

Republicans currently control both the House and Senate under the 119th Congress, but by razor-thin majorities. Republicans hold such thin majorities that they can't afford to lose more than two House seats and three Senate seats if they are to maintain control.

Congress is set for a busy and raucous 2026, despite the looming distraction of the November midterms, which typically slow down the legislative process. The GOP is eager to advance President Trump's agenda while they still control the House and Senate, which won't last if Democrats wrestle back control of one or both chambers after the midterm elections.

Congressional approval is very low. At the end of August, average congressional approval was 16%, and disapproval was 62%. A September 2026 survey found identical totals of 36% approve and 64% disapprove of Democrats in Congress, and 36% approve and 64% disapprove of Republicans in Congress. Over the term of the 119th Congress, Republican approval has fallen from 45% in March 2025 to 36% in September 2026, while Democratic approval has increased from 29% to 36%.

3. The 2026 Midterm Elections - Central Focus

The 2026 midterm general election season is underway. Every two years, all 435 House seats and one-third of Senate seats are up for grabs.

The midterms are seen as having far-reaching consequences for the balance of power and the policy agenda of the United States, and as a major test of two political parties in transition and the rest of President Trump's second-term agenda.

Forecasts strongly favor Democrats to win the House, while the Senate is viewed as a toss-up or leaning Republican:

•Prediction markets are assigning a three quarters probability that Democrats flip the House, but a less than one-third probability that they win back the Senate

•Other data from Polymarket and Kalshi puts the probability of Democrats retaking the House at 82%, while Republicans maintain a 64% chance of holding the Senate

•Separate forecasters agree: Democrats are favored to win the House, while the Senate is close to a toss-up, with Republicans holding a slight edge

•Analysts note divided government is the most likely outcome of the 2026 midterm elections

If Democrats take control of the House, they could stymie the president's legislative agenda and launch investigations of his administration, though enforcement challenges would remain, as this Trump administration is more capable of resisting scrutiny than the version Democrats confronted after retaking the House in 2018.

A significant factor is redistricting. The Supreme Court's conservative majority ruled in favor of Texas lawmakers, part of a nationwide redistricting race, from California to Florida, that Trump started to help maintain Republican control of the House of Representatives.

4. Public Opinion and Polarization

President Trump's approval has declined significantly since inauguration:

•At the end of August, approval polling averages showed President Donald Trump at 41% approval and 56% disapproval. The lowest average approval rating of his second term was 39%, last seen on Aug. 25, 2026. The highest was 54%, last seen on Jan. 22, 2025

•A Quinnipiac University National Poll on Sept. 10 found 33% approve while 59% disapprove

•A Brookings analysis put his national job approval at 39.6% compared to 57.0% disapproval — a net negative of 17.4%

•His job approval, which stood above 50% when he took office for his second term, has fallen to around 40% while public disapproval has risen from 44% to 57%

•On specific issues, Trump's economic approval was only at 36%, and his handling of inflation at 34%, and on immigration approval had fallen to 31% approve, 60% disapprove

On the generic congressional ballot among registered voters, Democrats hold a 6 percentage point edge over Republicans (43% vs. 37%) several months ahead of the midterms.

Broader trends:

•Political polarization remains a prominent feature of contemporary American politics, with researchers noting a trend of asymmetric polarization

•Pew Research's 2026 political typology describes nine distinct groups beyond the two major parties

•Confidence in U.S. elections has fallen significantly across party lines since 2024, with voters from both parties skeptical about recent redistricting efforts

Intraparty dynamics are also in focus:

•Congressional primaries are serving as early indicators of whether Trump retains his grip on Republicans and whether the Democratic Party is shifting left ahead of the 2028 presidential race. Trump's endorsement remains a powerful force in Republican primaries

•Democrats face an ideological divide between their centre and left flank, with Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsing three Senate candidates and 11 House candidates in Democratic primaries as one indicator of the left flank's strength

5. Key Policy and Legislative Issues

•Economy and Affordability: The cost of living, specifically prices, are the thing that people have been telling pollsters is far and away their top economic concern. Democrats are now favored over Republicans, 40% to 35%, to handle the economy

•Government Funding: A 43-day government shutdown occurred last fall. Parts of the government shut down on the morning of Jan. 31, 2026, after a continuing resolution would fund those accounts through Feb. 13, 2026, ending when the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2026 was signed Feb. 3. Funding for most agencies expires Jan. 30, and without a bipartisan deal those agencies will partially close. On Sept. 1, 2026, the House passed a bipartisan Continuing Resolution that funds the government through Dec. 11, 2026.

•Health Care: Subsidies for Obamacare tax credits expired on Dec. 31, resulting in premium hikes for millions. A deal still could be worked out in early 2026 as lawmakers fear voter backlash

•Foreign Policy: Issues include the war with Iran and war in Ukraine. Broad majorities are dissatisfied with the war in Iran, and there is a growing bipartisan push to slap Russia with sanctions over its war with Ukraine. Venezuela has also consumed lawmakers after President Trump's actions without congressional approval

•Tariffs and Tech: A Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff power could put Republicans in a bind, and many in both parties want stronger regulations for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency

6. Looking Ahead to 2028

Because 2026 is an open midterm cycle leading to a totally open 2028 presidential election, observers are already watching who travels to Iowa and New Hampshire — the early caucus and primary states — as candidates lay foundation for runs.

Citations (3)

1ballotpedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.89
Trump ends August with 41% approval rating, congressional approval at 16% - Ballotpedia News
Backs: “politics is dominated by President Donald Trump's second term and the upcoming November 2026 midterm elections:”
2wcbe.orgNews and media
A look ahead at politics in 2026
Backs: “politics is dominated by President Donald Trump's second term and the upcoming November 2026 midterm elections: 1. The Executive Branch. President Donald Trump is in the second year of his second term.”
3kiplinger.comCommercial contentquality 0.85
Congress is Set for a Busy Winter | Kiplinger
Backs: “Economy and Affordability: The cost of living, specifically prices, are the thing that people have been telling pollsters is far and away their top economic concern. Democrats are now favored over Republicans, 40% to 35%, to handle the economy”