Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Polarization is a big question — I'll dig into how today's divides compare to past eras.

Is political polarization worse than in the past? The answer depends on what time period and what type of polarization you mean:

Short answer: Yes, for the modern era - but not the worst in American history

Compared to the last 50-100 years, yes. Compared to the Civil War era, no.

1. Compared to the last 50 years, polarization is at a modern high

Multiple measures show polarization is worse than at any point in recent decades:

2. Affective polarization has more than doubled since the 1970s

Political scientists distinguish between ideological polarization (differences on issues) and affective polarization (dislike/distrust of the other party).

> Levels of affective polarisation have risen more than two-fold since the 1970s...In 1978...the difference...on a 100-point "feeling thermometer" scale was 27 points. The gap had widened to 56 by 2020

A comparative study found that "in the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries they examined—the U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden". Similar research noted it is "more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members of the nation's major political parties".

3. Compared to the entire 150+ years of history, it is not unprecedented

By long-term historical measures using congressional roll-call votes (DW-NOMINATE scores):

> Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era

Other researchers using the same data conclude:

> Whether we gauge congressional polarization by the difference of party means... Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the end of the Civil War

And:

> partisan elites in the U.S. are as polarized today as they were around the time of the Civil War, it suggests that there is a huge gulf in the middle

Some political scientists caution that viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, "today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum".

Other scholars note that "for all the hype about the ruptures and partisan rancor in contemporary American society, the strife pales in comparison with much of the nation's past", such as racial apartheid for a century after slavery and the urban riots and anti-war protests of the 1960s.

Bottom line