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Claude Sonnet 5Sep 16, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Short answer: Yes—by most measures, especially in the U.S., but with important nuances

Political polarization today is generally considered worse than at almost any point in modern history, though scholars distinguish between different types of polarization, and some caution against overly simplistic "worse than ever" narratives.

The case that it's worse than ever

Elite/Congressional polarization: A Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years. Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive—there are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versus more than 160 in 1971-72. Some researchers even go further back: ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.

Public/mass polarization: Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan antipathy is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in recent history. The ideological middle has been shrinking for decades—over the past twenty years, the number of Americans in the "tails" of this ideological distribution has doubled from 10% to 21%, while the center has shrunk: 39% currently take a roughly equal number of liberal and conservative positions.

Partisan hostility (the "affective" dimension): This may be the starkest trend. Pew Research Center polling reveals a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as more immoral than other Americans—up dramatically from 47% and 35% in 2016. Public perception matches this: a September 2024 Gallup poll found that a record 80 percent of U.S. adults believe Americans are greatly divided on the most important values, while just 18 percent believe the country is united.

Recent ideological shifts: In 2024, the shares of Republicans identifying as conservative and Democrats identifying as liberal both reached record highs.

International context: This isn't purely a U.S. phenomenon. In the past decade, political scientists have uncovered a similar trend across the globe—not just in countries with two dominating political parties but in nations with diverse societal compositions, from well-established multiparty democracies like Switzerland, Denmark and New Zealand, to emerging economies like Bulgaria, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Poland. The U.S. stands out even here: the US has experienced the most rapid growth in affective polarization among the general electorate since 1980 among the 12 OECD countries considered in a 2024 study, with five other countries experiencing smaller increases in polarization, and six experiencing declines.

Important caveats

Not everyone agrees polarization is unprecedented or that it means what people assume:

1.Historical context matters. Some political scientists have pointed out that, viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum. The Civil War era, obviously, represents a far more extreme division.
2.Policy distance vs. political behavior are different things. Political scientist Frances Lee argues that doesn't mean politicians are farther apart on policy issues than in the past. Much of what looks like growing division may reflect something else: while some measurements suggest more division, what they actually show is simply that the voting behavior of politicians has become more predictable—unlike the bipartisan support for the Civil Rights Act of 1964, today's politicians tend to vote strictly with their party on divisive topics.
3.Public opinion polarization is more complicated than elite polarization. Historically, for many years there was little evidence that the American people were committed to a coherent ideology—most people were not particularly stable in their ideological views, and consequently, ideological polarization was not as dramatic among the people as it was among their elected leaders. Much of today's rise is driven less by policy disagreement and more by identity and emotion: recent findings suggest a common denominator, namely that the key driver of polarization is more about emotion and identity than policy positions—a phenomenon known as "affective polarization."

Bottom line

If you're asking about elite polarization in Congress and emotional/tribal hostility between ordinary partisans, the data strongly supports "yes, this is genuinely unusual by modern historical standards"—arguably the worst since the late 19th century or, by some measures, since the Civil War era. But if you're asking whether Americans disagree more on actual policy substance than in the past, the evidence is much less clear, and some scholars argue the "worse than ever" framing overstates how novel today's divisions really are.

Citations (15)

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    Source excerpt: “Indeed, a Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the...”

  2. 2pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades | Pew Research Center

    Source excerpt: “Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive. There are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versu...”

  3. 3usc.eduAcademic
    Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today

    Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow duri...”

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    Source excerpt: “Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan antipathy is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in recent...”

  5. 5pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center

    Source excerpt: “Over the past twenty years, the number of Americans in the “tails” of this ideological distribution has doubled from 10% to 21%. Meanwhile, the center...”

  6. 6syr.eduAcademic
    The 'Great Divide': Understanding US Political Polarization | Syracuse University Today

    Source excerpt: “Pew Research Center polling reveals a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as ...”

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    Source excerpt: “A September 2024 Gallup poll found that a record 80 percent of U.S. adults believe Americans are greatly divided on the most important values, while j...”

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    Source excerpt: “In 2024, the shares of Republicans identifying as conservative and Democrats identifying as liberal both reached record highs. ”

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    Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity

    Source excerpt: “But in the past decade, political scientists have uncovered a similar trend across the globe — not just in countries with two invariably dominating po...”

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    Why are we so politically polarized? Here’s what research says | Knowable Magazine

    Source excerpt: “The US has experienced the most rapid growth in affective polarization among the general electorate since 1980 among the 12 OECD countries considered ...”

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    Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today

    Source excerpt: “Some political scientists have pointed out that — viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries — today’s levels of polarization are n...”

  12. 12knowablemagazine.orgNews and media
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    Source excerpt: “However, that doesn’t mean politicians are farther apart on policy issues than in the past, says Frances Lee, a political scientist now at Princeton U...”

  13. 13knowablemagazine.orgNews and media
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    Source excerpt: “In fact, Lee adds, while some measurements suggest more division, what they actually show is simply that the voting behavior of politicians has become...”

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    Source excerpt: “For many years, there was little evidence that the American people were committed to a coherent ideology. To be sure, many individuals felt a close at...”

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    Source excerpt: “While there is no one explanation for why countries worldwide are fraying into extremes, recent findings suggest a common denominator: namely, that th...”