Is Donald Trump improving the US government?

Short answer: It depends what “improving” means to you. Here’s a concise, evidence-based snapshot as of September 16, 2026.

Where supporters see improvement

•Border security: Migrant encounters at the U.S.–Mexico border fell to multidecade lows beginning in early 2025 after policy changes (e.g., ending categorical parole, moves to revive MPP). CBP reported a 93% year‑over‑year drop in May 2025, and Pew described 2025–2026 levels as the lowest in 50+ years.[1]

•Crime/public safety: FBI data show violent crime fell sharply in 2025, with homicides at their lowest rate since the mid‑1950s; early 2026 big‑city data also point down.[2]

•Executive control/“efficiency”: The administration reasserted presidential control over the bureaucracy—reviving “Schedule F” via Executive Order 14171 and final OPM rules in Feb–Mar 2026, and creating a Department of Government Efficiency—changes intended to speed decision‑making and accountability.[3]

Where critics see harm or risks

•Fiscal outlook: The deficit was about $1.8 trillion in FY2025 and is projected around $1.9 trillion in FY2026—high by historical standards. A 2025 legislative package and frequent tariff changes have not reduced near‑term deficits in CBO’s projections.[4]

•Tariffs and the economy: New and frequently adjusted tariffs (many launched in Feb 2025) initially boosted customs receipts, but CBO now projects lower‑than‑expected tariff revenue in 2026 after legal and policy shifts; CBO also judges the tariff mix to be a modest drag on growth. Real GDP grew about 2.1% in 2025; Q2 2026 grew at a 1.5% annualized rate.[5]

•Civil service and capacity: Large workforce reductions and reclassifications have prompted litigation and watchdog warnings about loss of expertise and service capacity (e.g., FEMA staffing dispute ruled unlawful).[6]

•Courts and constraints: The Supreme Court’s 2024 Loper Bright decision ended Chevron deference, increasing judicial scrutiny of agency actions; several Trump‑era orders have faced injunctions or defeats, limiting or reshaping implementation.[7]

Key outcomes to watch

•Macroeconomy: Unemployment is 4.1% (Aug 2026) and 12‑month CPI is 3.7% (Aug 2026); energy‑driven price pressure resurfaced late summer. How growth, inflation and rates evolve will shape views of “improvement.”[8]

•Border/courts: Sustaining lower encounters while withstanding court challenges and managing humanitarian obligations.[9]

•Governance norms: Whether Schedule F–style changes yield better performance or politicize the career service; several cases remain active.[3]

•Public trust: Surveys in 2026 show low or slipping confidence in federal ethics and honesty, which some tie to governance changes.[10]

Bottom line: If you prioritize tighter border control, a stronger presidency over the bureaucracy, and falling violent crime, you may judge the government as “improving.” If you prioritize fiscal sustainability, institutional independence, and administrative capacity, you may see deterioration or higher risk. Happy to dig deeper on any one area (budget, immigration, civil service, economy, or courts).

Citations (10)

1cbp.govGovernment
CBP Releases May 2025 Monthly Update | U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Backs: “CBP reported a 93% year‑over‑year drop in May 2025, and Pew described 2025–2026 levels as the lowest in 50+ years.”
2fbi.govGovernment
Violent Crime Falls at Historic Rate, New FBI Data Show — FBI
Backs: “FBI data show violent crime fell sharply in 2025, with homicides at their lowest rate since the mid‑1950s; early 2026 big‑city data also point down.”
3opm.govGovernment
OPM Finalizes Schedule Policy/Career Rule to Strengthen Accountability
Backs: “The administration reasserted presidential control over the bureaucracy—reviving “Schedule F” via Executive Order 14171 and final OPM rules in Feb–Mar 2026, and creating a Department of Government Efficiency—changes intended to speed decision‑making and accountability.”
4cbo.govGovernment
Monthly Budget Review: September 2025 | Congressional Budget Office
Backs: “A 2025 legislative package and frequent tariff changes have not reduced near‑term deficits in CBO’s projections.”
5cbo.govGovernment
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 | Congressional Budget Office
Backs: “Real GDP grew about 2.1% in 2025; Q2 2026 grew at a 1.5% annualized rate.”
6apnews.comNews and mediaquality 1.00
Federal judge rules Trump DHS plan for 50% FEMA staffing cuts was unlawful
Backs: “Large workforce reductions and reclassifications have prompted litigation and watchdog warnings about loss of expertise and service capacity (e.g., FEMA staffing dispute ruled unlawful).”
7cornell.eduAcademic
LOPER BRIGHT ENTERPRISES v. RAIMONDO | Supreme Court | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute
Backs: “The Supreme Court’s 2024 Loper Bright decision ended Chevron deference, increasing judicial scrutiny of agency actions; several Trump‑era orders have faced injunctions or defeats, limiting or reshaping implementation.”
8bls.govGovernment
Civilian unemployment rate
Backs: “How growth, inflation and rates evolve will shape views of “improvement.””
9everycrsreport.comEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.91
Recent White House Actions on Immigration - EveryCRSReport.com
Backs: “Sustaining lower encounters while withstanding court challenges and managing humanitarian obligations.”
10pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Trump Loses Ground on Several Personal Traits as Approval Rating Slips | Pew Research Center
Backs: “Surveys in 2026 show low or slipping confidence in federal ethics and honesty, which some tie to governance changes.”