Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

To answer whether political polarization is worse than in the past, political scientists, sociologists, and historians generally divide the issue into three main categories: affective polarization (how much we dislike the other side), legislative polarization (how divided our politicians are), and issue polarization (how far apart our actual policy views are).

When comparing today's political climate to the past, the consensus is clear: While the U.S. is not currently in a state of physical armed conflict like the Civil War (1861–1865), political polarization by almost every modern social science metric is at its highest point in roughly 150 years.

1. Affective Polarization (Emotional Hostility)

Affective polarization measures the emotional gap—how much voters dislike, distrust, and fear the opposing political party. On this front, polarization has grown rapidly, and the U.S. is a global outlier.

•Partisan Animosity: Pew Research Center data shows a dramatic rise in partisan hostility. In 2016, 47% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as "more immoral" than other Americans. By 2022, those numbers jumped to 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats.

•Personal Relationships: In 1960, only 4% to 5% of Americans reported they would be displeased if their child married someone of the opposing political party. By the 2010s, that figure rose to roughly one-third of Democrats and half of all Republicans.

•An International Exception: A major study from Brown University tracking polarization across several Western democracies (including the UK, Canada, Germany, and Australia) found that while affective polarization has risen globally, the trend in the United States is exceptionally severe, having accelerated much faster than in peer nations since the late 1970s.

2. Legislative Polarization (Elite Gridlock)

Political scientists measure polarization in Congress using a system called DW-NOMINATE, which analyzes roll-call voting patterns to map out the ideological distance between lawmakers.

•The Death of the Moderate: In the early 1970s, there were over 160 moderate Democrats and Republicans serving on Capitol Hill. Today, that number has dwindled to just a couple dozen, leaving almost no ideological overlap between the two parties.

•A 150-Year High: Legislative data shows that the ideological distance between Democrats and Republicans has grown steadily since the late 1970s. Congress is currently more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era—the period immediately following the Civil War.

•The Direction of the Shift: At the elite legislative level, polarization has been largely asymmetric. While both parties have pulled away from the center, Republican lawmakers have shifted significantly further to the right than Democratic lawmakers have shifted to the left.

3. Public Issue Polarization (The Voters)

Do ordinary citizens actually hold more extreme views than they did in the past, or are they simply being forced to choose between more extreme candidates?

•The 2008 Turning Point: A study by the University of Cambridge's Political Psychology Lab tracked public opinion on a broad range of social and political issues (like abortion, immigration, and safety nets). They found that issue divisions among voters remained relatively flat through the 1990s and early 2000s. However, divisions jumped by 64% after 2008. Researchers attribute this abrupt shift to the combined shocks of the 2008 global financial crisis, the election of Barack Obama, and the rapid rise of social media and smartphones.

•The Left-Wing Shift in Public Opinion: Interestingly, while legislative polarization has been driven heavily by a rightward shift in Republican politicians, public issue polarization has been driven primarily by voters on the left moving further to the left. The Cambridge study found that between 1988 and 2024, the American left became 31.5% more socially liberal, while the American right became only 2.8% more socially conservative.

Is it worse than it has ever been?

It depends on how far back you look:

•Compared to the mid-20th century: Yes, immensely. The mid-1900s (specifically the 1940s through the 1970s) were a historical anomaly of high bipartisanship. The parties were highly disorganized and ideologically mixed (e.g., liberal Northern Republicans and conservative Southern Democrats), which forced compromise but often suppressed civil rights debates.

•Compared to the late 19th century: Yes. We have returned to—and in some metrics surpassed—the intense partisan sorting and gridlock of the Reconstruction era.

•Compared to the 1850s and 1860s: No. While the current rhetoric and deep-seated dislike are incredibly high, the country is not experiencing a total breakdown of constitutional order, the secession of states, or a physical civil war that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans.

Ultimately, while the nation has survived worse institutional crises, anyone living today is experiencing the most polarized, gridlocked, and emotionally hostile political environment in modern American memory.

Citations (8)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “To answer whether political polarization is worse than in the past, political scientists, sociologists, and historians generally divide the issue into three main categories: affective polarization (how much we dislike the other side), legislative polarization (how divided our politicians are), and issue polarization…”
2facinghistory.orgNonprofits and think tanks
facinghistory.org
Backs: “To answer whether political polarization is worse than in the past, political scientists, sociologists, and historians generally divide the issue into three main categories: affective polarization (how much we dislike the other side), legislative polarization (how divided our politicians are), and issue polarization…”
3usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “When comparing today's political climate to the past, the consensus is clear: While the U.S. is not currently in a state of physical armed conflict like the Civil War (1861–1865), political polarization by almost every modern social science metric is at its highest point in roughly 150 years.”
4brown.eduAcademic
brown.edu
Backs: “Affective Polarization (Emotional Hostility). Affective polarization measures the emotional gap—how much voters dislike, distrust, and fear the opposing political party. On this front, polarization has grown rapidly, and the U.S.”
5syr.eduAcademic
syr.edu
Backs: “In 2016, 47% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as "more immoral" than other Americans. By 2022, those numbers jumped to 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats.”
6pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
pewresearch.org
Backs: “Legislative Polarization (Elite Gridlock). Political scientists measure polarization in Congress using a system called DW-NOMINATE, which analyzes roll-call voting patterns to map out the ideological distance between lawmakers. The Death of the Moderate: In the early 1970s, there were over 160 moderate Democrats and…”
7cam.ac.ukAcademic
cam.ac.uk
Backs: “The 2008 Turning Point: A study by the University of Cambridge's Political Psychology Lab tracked public opinion on a broad range of social and political issues (like abortion, immigration, and safety nets). They found that issue divisions among voters remained relatively flat through the 1990s and early 2000s.”
8courthousenews.comNews and mediaquality 0.87
courthousenews.com
Backs: “The 2008 Turning Point: A study by the University of Cambridge's Political Psychology Lab tracked public opinion on a broad range of social and political issues (like abortion, immigration, and safety nets). They found that issue divisions among voters remained relatively flat through the 1990s and early 2000s.”