What is the current state of US politics?

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As of September 15, 2026 - the second year of Donald Trump's second presidency and the second session of the 119th Congress (January 3, 2025 – present) - U.S. politics is defined by a narrow Republican federal trifecta, low presidential approval, intense polarization, and a highly competitive 2026 midterm election campaign.

1. Federal Control: Republican Trifecta with Razor-Thin Majorities

Upon Trump's second inauguration on January 20, 2025, the Republican Party gained an overall federal government trifecta for the first time since the 115th Congress (2017–2019).

•Presidency: Donald Trump (R) in his second, non-consecutive term. He is described as continuing to try to centralize power on both domestic and foreign policy.

•Congress - 119th Congress profile as of May 13, 2025:

•House of Representatives: 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats

•Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents (both caucus with the Democrats)

•This House majority is the slimmest majority for any party since the 72nd Congress (1931–1933). Because majorities are so narrow, it will take only a handful of Republican defections to threaten passage of any legislation that does not have Democratic support, while in the Senate any legislation pursued under regular order will require Democratic votes to proceed due to the filibuster.

As of April 6, 2026, after deaths and resignations, Republicans had a 217-214 majority in the House with three vacancies. The House has also seen unusual instability in this Congress, including the federal government shutting down October 1 – November 12, 2025, partially shutting down January 31 – February 3, 2026, and a second shutdown affecting only the Department of Homeland Security February 14 – April 30, 2026.

The GOP is described as eager to advance President Trump’s agenda while they still control the House and Senate, which won’t last if Democrats wrestle back control of one or both chambers after the midterm elections

Major legislation enacted under the trifecta includes the Laken Riley Act (Jan 29, 2025), and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 4, 2025).

2. President Trump’s Standing

Trump began his second term with an approval rating of 47%, the second lowest approval rating at the start of a presidential term in polling history, and compared to a high of 54% seen on Jan. 22, 2025.

Through 2025 to 2026, that rating has steadily declined to an average of 37 to 40%:

•Pew Research Center in January 2026: Trump's approval rating stands at 37%, down from 40% in the fall. By more than two-to-one, Americans say the administration’s actions have been worse than they expected (50%) rather than better (21%).

•At year’s end 2025, overall job approval averaged about 43%.

•At the end of August 2026, approval polling averages showed President Donald Trump at 41% approval with 56% disapproving.

•Economist/YouGov polling showed 37% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve and 59% disapprove — a net job approval of -22.

Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office, and that change has come entirely among Republicans. Last year, 67% of Republicans said they supported all or most of Trump’s plans, today 56% do.

On issues, he does reasonably well on immigration, crime, and foreign affairs, but much worse on the economy (41%), inflation (36%), and health care (32%). Net approval on handling the economy was -23, tying his low for either term, with even lower marks on government spending (-27) and inflation (-28). Views of his handling of immigration — one of his strongest issues since his second term began — have also fallen.

Pew also found confidence is down on all six presidential qualities measured since last year, particularly among Republicans. For example, while 55% majority of Republicans said they were confident Trump acts ethically in office at the beginning of his second term, that share now stands at 42%.

3. The 2026 Midterm Election — The Dominant Political Event

The 2026 midterms on November 3 will decide control of Congress and are described as having far-reaching consequences for the balance of power and the policy agenda.

•Timeline: States hold their primaries on dates spanning March through September 2026. As of early September 2026, the general election season is upon us.

•Generic ballot: Several months ahead of the midterms, Democrats hold a 6 percentage point edge over Republicans among registered voters (43% vs. 37%) according to Pew. A Voters’ Voice Poll five months out showed 47% would vote Democratic and 41% Republican. By year-end 2025, Brookings noted Democrats favored over Republicans 40% to 35% to handle the economy.

•Forecasts: A Cornell model released Sept. 3 anticipates Democrats winning approximately 226 seats to Republicans’ 209. Brookings analysis notes despite new Republican gerrymanders that shifted the political map, Democrats are positioned to gain around 25-30 House seats, enough to deliver a significant rebuke of Trump’s second term.

•Redistricting fight: It is the latest major turn in the nationwide redistricting race, from California to Florida, that Trump started to help maintain Republican control of the House. After the Supreme Court's conservative majority ruled in favor of Texas lawmakers, Republicans head into the 2026 election year with an edge in the redistricting fight. If Democrats take control of the chamber, they could stymie the president's legislative agenda and launch investigations, though analysts note this Trump administration is more capable of resisting scrutiny than the version Democrats confronted after retaking the House in 2018.

•Intraparty dynamics: Congressional primaries in both parties are serving as early indicators of whether Trump retains his grip on Republicans and whether the Democratic Party is shifting left ahead of the 2028 presidential race.

4. Top Issues and Public Mood

Economic issues dominate voter concerns:

•A Reuters/Ipsos poll August 28-31, 2026 found a plurality (47%) of registered voters say the cost of living would be the single most important factor in deciding their 2026 midterm vote.

•At year-end 2025, 66% of Americans identify either the economy, inflation, or health care as the top issue facing the country, while 24% pick one of the issues to which the president has devoted most attention.

•The affordability of health care is seen as a big problem by 73% (60% of Republicans, 85% of Democrats). Pew also lists the cost of health care, goods and housing as top economic concerns for Americans.

•Only 27% rate the state of the economy as excellent or good, compared to 72% who evaluate it as fair or poor.

Polarization remains deep:

•Democrats overwhelmingly say their congressional leadership should stand up to Trump — 82% up from 70% last year — while a smaller majority of Republicans (61%) say Trump should stand up to Democratic leaders.

•Among Republicans, 61% now say GOP members of Congress do not have an obligation to support Trump if they disagree with him, up from 55% last year.

•Trust in elections has declined across party lines ahead of the midterms: 60% of respondents said they are confident votes will be counted accurately nationwide in the 2026 midterms, down from 77% just after the 2024 presidential election. Over the past few months, Trump has repeated long-debunked allegations of mass voter fraud in the 2020 election and pushed new restrictions on mail voting and proof-of-citizenship requirements.

In short, September 2026 finds the United States in a divided, highly competitive pre-midterm environment: a Republican trifecta governing with historically narrow margins and facing an electorate broadly dissatisfied with economic conditions and the president’s handling of affordability, with polls currently favoring Democrats to retake at least the House in November.

Citations (3)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
119th United States Congress - Wikipedia
Backs: “I'll pull the latest on the state of US politics for you. As of September 15, 2026 - the second year of Donald Trump's second presidency and the second session of the 119th Congress (January 3, 2025 – present) - U.S.”
2pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Confidence in Trump Dips in 2026, and Fewer Now Say They Support His Policies and Plans | Pew Research Center
Backs: “Through 2025 to 2026, that rating has steadily declined to an average of 37 to 40%: Pew Research Center in January 2026: Trump's approval rating stands at 37%, down from 40% in the fall.”
3brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
The economy weakened support for President Trump in 2025 and may do so again in 2026 | Brookings
Backs: “By more than two-to-one, Americans say the administration’s actions have been worse than they expected (50%) rather than better (21%). At year’s end 2025, overall job approval averaged about 43%.”