Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
The evidence suggests political polarization—at least in the U.S.—is worse than it's been in recent history, but whether it's the "worst ever" depends heavily on how you measure it and what time frame you compare to. Here's the nuanced picture:
Congressional/Elite Polarization: Yes, Historically High
By the most common quantitative measure (DW-NOMINATE scores, which track how members of Congress vote), ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era. That's a very long stretch of relatively low polarization ending.
Today, whereas there used to be many Republicans who were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat, and vice versa, there is no overlap today—the most liberal Republican is still more conservative than the most conservative Democrat. Pew estimates only about two dozen ideological moderates remain in Congress.
However, some scholars caution against over-interpreting this. Some political scientists have pointed out that viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum.
There's also a methodological debate: some measurements suggest more division, but what they actually show is simply that the voting behavior of politicians has become more predictable—that doesn't necessarily mean politicians are farther apart on policy issues than in the past, according to political scientist Frances Lee. She notes changes in the scope of policy issues over time are often missed—even though measurements show increasing party division on civil rights issues, many of today's votes are narrower in effect than 1960s civil rights legislation.
Public/Mass Polarization: More Complicated
Among ordinary voters, the story is less clear-cut than among politicians:
A Perception Gap
Interestingly, some researchers argue the feeling of polarization exceeds the reality. Cambridge researcher De-Wit argues that polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is, even while acknowledging that political groups have moved further apart in recent years.
Bottom Line
So the honest answer is: worse than the relatively calm mid-20th century baseline most people compare it to, but not necessarily an all-time historical extreme—and how "polarized" feels can outpace how polarized things actually are on policy substance.
Citations (15)
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow duri...”
- Political Polarization in America: A Historical Analysis | Divided We Fall
Source excerpt: “Whereas there used to be many Republicans who were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat, and vice versa, there is no overlap today. T...”
- Political Polarization in America: A Historical Analysis | Divided We Fall
Source excerpt: “Pew estimates only about two dozen ideological moderates remain in Congress. ”
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Some political scientists have pointed out that viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries todays levels of polarization are n...”
- Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity
Source excerpt: “In fact, Lee adds, while some measurements suggest more division, what they actually show is simply that the voting behavior of politicians has become...”
- Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity
Source excerpt: “What is often missed, Lee explains, are changes in the scope of policy issues over time. For example, even though measurements show increasing party d...”
- Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center
Source excerpt: “Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan acrimony is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in recent ...”
- Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center
Source excerpt: “Beyond the rise in ideological consistency, another major element in polarization has been the growing contempt that many Republicans and Democrats ha...”
- Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center
Source excerpt: “But today, these sentiments are broader and deeper than in the recent past.”
- Towards global equity in political polarization research
Source excerpt: “argue that the state of U.S. affective polarization is exceptional, with the U.S. having suffered the largest increase in affective polarization over ...”
- Political Polarization in America: A Historical Analysis | Divided We Fall
Source excerpt: “To be sure, many individuals felt a close attachment to and consistently supported a particular political party, but for much of the second half of th...”
- Political Polarization in the United States | Facing History & Ourselves
Source excerpt: “In addition, the general public is less divided on a range of issues than in the past. Many policies have bipartisan support, or support from members ...”
- Towards global equity in political polarization research
Source excerpt: “However, at a global scale, ideological polarization does not appear to have increased amongst the mass public ([6], SM). This is in contrast to the t...”
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: “· However, De-Wit argues that polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is. ”
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: ““Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions ... Dr David Young said: “In the past, someone with left-wing views o...”