Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Voter fraud claims vary widely — I'll check the latest data on how common it actually is in US elections.

In the United States, voter fraud exists but research and government investigations have consistently found it is very rare and not on a scale that affects national election outcomes.

What research shows

•Research has consistently found that voter fraud in the United States is very rare, and that fraud is more likely to occur in and affect local elections.

•The Brennan Center's report reviewed elections meticulously studied for fraud and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent, noting it is more likely an American will be struck by lightning than impersonate another voter at the polls.

•A 2014 study found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast.

•Two studies at Arizona State University found similarly negligible rates - 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud nationwide from 2000-2012 and zero successful prosecutions for impersonation fraud in five states from 2012-2016 where politicians argued fraud was pernicious.

•Extant findings show that voter fraud is extremely rare and difficult to prove in the United States.

Evidence from elections

•Of the more than 25 million votes cast in six swing states in the 2020 election, an analysis by the Associated Press found fewer than 475 potential voter fraud cases, and even those cases were unconfirmed. That number would have made no difference in the 2020 presidential election.

•In Arizona over 25 years the percentage of fraudulent votes was a minuscule .0000845%, and no election outcome in the U.S. has ever been altered by ballot fraud according to Brookings analysis of Heritage data. In Pennsylvania, Heritage data going back 30 years found only 39 cases over 100 million votes cast.

•A U.S. Department of Justice unit formed to find federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections and were able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent.

•News21 journalism project found 2,068 alleged voter fraud cases reported between 2000 and 2012, about 0.000003 cases for every vote cast, with 46 percent resulting in acquittals or dropped charges.

Types of fraud

•Mail-in voter fraud occurs more often than in-person voter fraud, but still is exceedingly rare - a Massachusetts Institute of Technology study found it occurs in 0.00006 percent of individual votes nationally.

•Voter impersonation, or in-person voter fraud, is extremely rare.

•Illegal voting by noncitizens is extremely raredue in part to severe penalties including deportation and prison.

Alternative view

The conservative Heritage Foundation maintains a database of proven fraud cases and argues fraud is a real and ongoing problem, documenting 581 cases of proven voter fraud and 848 criminal convictionsin an earlier tally, and over 1,088 proven instances including 949 criminal convictions in a later update, and as of November 2023 there were 1,465 proven cases listed in 44 years, an average of 33 cases per year.

Critics note this represents a tiny fraction of total votes - for example 103 cases in Texas between 2005 and 2022 where 107 million ballots were cast, or 0.000096% of all ballots cast - and that claims the database contains almost 1,100 proven instances are grossly exaggerated and devoid of context, confirming that voter fraud is vanishingly rare.

Perception vs. evidence

Despite evidence indicating that voter fraud is extremely rare, public concern remains high. Americans are almost evenly divided on whether voter fraud (26%) or eligible voters being prevented from voting (30%) is a more widespread problem, with Republicans more concerned about fraud than Democrats.

> “Research has been consistent over time that voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome,” said Alice Clapman, senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice.

In summary, while isolated cases of fraud do occur and are prosecuted, multiple independent studies, court findings, and government investigations conclude it does not occur at a level that would rig or systematically alter federal or statewide election results.

Citations (2)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
Electoral fraud in the United States - Wikipedia
Backs: “In the United States, voter fraud exists but research and government investigations have consistently found it is very rare and not on a scale that affects national election outcomes. What research shows”
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Backs: “Research has consistently found that voter fraud in the United States is very rare, and that fraud is more likely to occur in and affect local elections. The Brennan Center's report reviewed elections meticulously studied for fraud and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent, noting it is more…”