What are the threats of today's political climate in the US?
The primary threats in today's US political climate (as of mid-to-late 2026, during President Trump's second term and ahead of the midterms) center on extreme polarization, rising political violence, erosion of democratic norms and institutional trust, and related societal fractures. These are interconnected and viewed very differently across the partisan divide, with each side often seeing the other as the existential danger.[1]
Americans broadly agree that democracy faces serious risks—polls have shown majorities (around two-thirds in some surveys) identifying "weakening democracy" as a critical threat—but they disagree sharply on the sources.[1][2] Risk analysts (e.g., Eurasia Group) have ranked "US political revolution"—systematic efforts to reshape power structures, capture institutions, and target domestic opponents—as a top global risk for 2026.[3][4]
1. Extreme Polarization and Affective Hostility
The US is deeply divided along partisan lines, with "affective polarization" (dislike or hatred of the opposing side as people, not just policies) at high levels. Opponents are frequently framed as enemies, existential threats, or illegitimate rather than rivals. This makes compromise rare, fuels gridlock, and turns elections into high-stakes zero-sum contests.
This polarization itself is a meta-threat: it degrades governance, economic policy coherence, and social cohesion.
2. Political Violence and Extremism
Political violence has risen, including high-profile assassinations, attempts, arsons, assaults on officials/ICE officers, attacks on businesses (e.g., Tesla dealerships), and threats against election workers, judges, and politicians. Examples in recent years include the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, an arson attempt on a Democratic governor's home, earlier assassination attempts on Trump, and other incidents.[7]
A spiral of violence, retaliation, and crackdowns risks further escalation.
3. Erosion of Democratic Norms, Institutions, and Rule of Law
Mutual accusations of authoritarianism and norm-breaking are rampant:
Both sides have engaged in hardball tactics when empowered (court-packing talk, filibuster changes, norm erosion on confirmations, etc.). Declining trust in elections, media, courts, and bureaucracy is bipartisan in different ways. Free speech tensions, surveillance fears, and selective enforcement of laws add friction.[18]
4. Interlocking Societal and Structural Pressures
Context and Resilience
These threats are real and elevated compared to recent decades, contributing to lower social trust, harder governance, and higher instability risks (some models flag elevated chances of severe unrest). However, the US retains strong institutional guardrails (federalism, courts, elections, civil society, armed forces norms, economic power), a history of weathering crises, and majority public rejection of outright violence or dictatorship. Most violence remains rare relative to population size, and peaceful transfers and midterms continue.[19]
Partisan lenses dominate perception: Democrats often emphasize Trump/MAGA authoritarianism and right-wing threats; Republicans emphasize progressive overreach, left-wing extremism/violence, and institutional bias against them. Independent analyses highlight mutual contributions to the cycle.[2]
Mitigating these requires reducing rhetorical temperature, rebuilding institutional trust through transparency and even-handed enforcement, addressing root drivers (economic opportunity, social isolation, media incentives), and recommitting to norms of peaceful competition and rule of law—regardless of who holds power. Polarization and zero-sum thinking remain the core accelerants.
Citations (19)
- https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-say-weakening-democracy-most-critical-threat-united-states
Backs: “These are interconnected and viewed very differently across the partisan divide, with each side often seeing the other as the existential danger.”
- https://uspollingdata.com/news/democracy-threat-polling-2026/
Backs: “Americans broadly agree that democracy faces serious risks—polls have shown majorities (around two-thirds in some surveys) identifying "weakening democracy" as a critical threat—but they disagree sharply on the sources.”
- https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/risk-1-us-political-revolution
Backs: “Americans broadly agree that democracy faces serious risks—polls have shown majorities (around two-thirds in some surveys) identifying "weakening democracy" as a critical threat—but they disagree sharply on the sources.Risk analysts (e.g., Eurasia Group) have ranked "US political revolution"—systematic efforts to…”
- https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/eurasia-group-ian-bremmer-from-trump-and-ai-to-russia-and-water-the-top-risks-of-2026-10387978
Backs: “Americans broadly agree that democracy faces serious risks—polls have shown majorities (around two-thirds in some surveys) identifying "weakening democracy" as a critical threat—but they disagree sharply on the sources.Risk analysts (e.g., Eurasia Group) have ranked "US political revolution"—systematic efforts to…”
- https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-patchwork-republic-polarization-and-the-laboratories-of-democracy/
Backs: “It contributes to "two Americas" dynamics, with states diverging sharply on policy (abortion, immigration, education, guns, elections) under federalism.”
- https://news.umich.edu/beyond-the-great-divide-what-we-really-know-about-political-polarization/
Backs: “Younger people and heavy social media users often show stronger effects.”
- https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/americas-new-age-political-violence
Backs: “Examples in recent years include the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, an arson attempt on a Democratic governor's home, earlier assassination attempts on Trump, and other incidents.”
- https://uspollingdata.com/news/political-violence-polling-2026/
Backs: “Support for political violence remains a minority view (most Americans reject it), but it has increased from pre-2016 baselines (polls often show 15-20%+ saying it can sometimes be justified, higher among the young, men, extremes of both parties, and the socially isolated).”
- https://news.gallup.com/poll/697745/youth-loneliness-political-violence.aspx
Backs: “Support for political violence remains a minority view (most Americans reject it), but it has increased from pre-2016 baselines (polls often show 15-20%+ saying it can sometimes be justified, higher among the young, men, extremes of both parties, and the socially isolated).”
- https://cvp.ucdavis.edu/articles/political-violence
Backs: “Support for political violence remains a minority view (most Americans reject it), but it has increased from pre-2016 baselines (polls often show 15-20%+ saying it can sometimes be justified, higher among the young, men, extremes of both parties, and the socially isolated).”
- https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/politically-motivated-killers-51-years-terrorist-murders-us-soil-1975-2025
Backs: “Historically (post-9/11 or multi-decade), right-wing extremism has accounted for more lethal attacks in many analyses; recent years show rising left-wing incidents/plots (sometimes exceeding right-wing in frequency in short windows), alongside lone actors with blended/niche ideologies. Both sides have significant…”
- https://www.factcheck.org/2025/10/what-we-know-about-political-violence-in-america/
Backs: “Historically (post-9/11 or multi-decade), right-wing extremism has accounted for more lethal attacks in many analyses; recent years show rising left-wing incidents/plots (sometimes exceeding right-wing in frequency in short windows), alongside lone actors with blended/niche ideologies. Both sides have significant…”
- https://www.csis.org/analysis/global-terrorism-threat-assessment-2026
Backs: “Domestic extremism (various ideologies) and foreign-inspired actors remain concerns amid reduced counterterrorism focus in some areas.”
- https://www.hrw.org/feature/2026/06/25/us-democracy-in-decline-under-trump
Backs: “Expansion of executive power, use of national security tools/emergency powers against domestic opponents or protesters (e.g., designations around "antifa"), pressure on media/journalists (subpoenas, lawsuits), politicization of DOJ/FBI/agencies for retribution, challenges to independent institutions, election…”
- https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/09/trump-keeps-using-national-security-to-do-what-he-wants-war-dissidents-environment/
Backs: “Expansion of executive power, use of national security tools/emergency powers against domestic opponents or protesters (e.g., designations around "antifa"), pressure on media/journalists (subpoenas, lawsuits), politicization of DOJ/FBI/agencies for retribution, challenges to independent institutions, election…”
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/13/new-threat-election-officials-fear-trumps-federal-government/
Backs: “Expansion of executive power, use of national security tools/emergency powers against domestic opponents or protesters (e.g., designations around "antifa"), pressure on media/journalists (subpoenas, lawsuits), politicization of DOJ/FBI/agencies for retribution, challenges to independent institutions, election…”
- https://thefederalist.com/2026/09/10/left-wing-violence-is-still-an-existential-threat-to-the-republic/
Backs: “Some view strong executive action as necessary restoration against a "captured" system.”
- https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=340
Backs: “Free speech tensions, surveillance fears, and selective enforcement of laws add friction.”
- https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/when-polarization-turns-violent/
Backs: “Most violence remains rare relative to population size, and peaceful transfers and midterms continue.”