Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Leans yesSays it is contestedSources conflict

Pew and USC sources describe polarization as at record or modern highs, while the Brookings piece argues past strife was far worse and mass polarization is overstated.

Your question touches a lot of history — I'll gather recent research and expert views on whether polarization is truly worse than before.

Yes, by most modern measures — but not by all historical measures.

The answer depends on what kind of polarization you mean, and what period you compare to.

1. By measures of the last 50-150 years: Yes, worse than ever

Ideological polarization in Congress:

•A Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.

•Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.

Researchers measure this with DW-NOMINATE scores, which place lawmakers on a -1 (most liberal) to 1 (most conservative) scale based on roll-call votes.

•Between the 92nd Congress of 1971-72 and the 117th Congress, House Democrats moved from about -0.31 to -0.38, meaning they've become modestly more liberal on average. House Republicans moved from 0.25 to nearly 0.51, a much bigger move in the conservative direction.

•Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive. There are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versus more than 160 in 1971-72.

A key indicator is the "overlap interval" — how many members of one party are more moderate than members of the other party:

•Since 2002, when Republican Rep. Constance Morella was defeated and Rep. Benjamin Gilman retired, there's been no overlap at all between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House. In the Senate, the end of overlap came in 2004.

In the 1960s, about 50 percent of legislators in the two parties overlapped. Today that overlap is zero.

Other long-run data shows a similar U-shape: Partisan conflict scores declined between 1891 and the early 1920s, remained relatively stable until 1965, and exhibited an increasing trend thereafter, peaking with the 2013 government shutdown.

Affective polarization among the public:

This is the gap between how warmly people feel toward their own party versus the opposing party — dislike, distrust and stereotyping.

•Researchers note previous research suggesting that political polarization in the United States is more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members of the nation's major political parties.

•Affective polarization in the United States – the gap between individuals' positive feelings toward their own political party and negative feelings toward the opposing party – has increased markedly in the past two decades.

•By 2016, affective polarization rose up to 41–43 points, the highest on record.

Pew data shows the same:

•Across Pew Research Center surveys, 62% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats say they hold very unfavorable views of the other party.

•Members of both parties who have unfavorable opinions of the opposing party doubled between 1994 and 2014, while those who have very unfavorable opinions are at record highs as of 2022.

Pew also found that across 48 questions covering values about government, foreign policy and social issues, the average difference between the opinions of Republicans and Democrats now stands at 18 percentage points…nearly twice the size of the gap in surveys conducted from 1987-2002.

In comparative perspective:

•In the US, affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries they examined—the UK, Canada, Australia, New ...

•According to baseline estimates, the US experienced the largest increase in polarization over this period [among twelve OECD countries].

•One comparative study found polarization in the United States has risen consistently since 1990 and has been at pernicious levels since 2015, while only two other peer democracies ever came close.

2. By measures of the last 200+ years: Not worse than the worst periods

Many political scientists caution against presentism.

•Some political scientists have pointed out that — viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries — today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum.

•Analyses using NOMINATE data show that partisan elites in the U.S. are as polarized today as they were around the time of the Civil War — meaning today's level equals but does not exceed that era.

Brookings analysts have made a similar point:

•Today's social conflicts and partisan strife pale in comparison with much of the nation's past. Recall the racial apartheid that scarred America for a century after the end of slavery, and the urban riots and anti-war protests that inflamed the country during the 1960s.

•For all the hype about the ruptures and partisan rancor in contemporary American society, the strife pales in comparison with much of the nation's past.

•There have been long stretches of American history in which conflicts were far worse.

A Brookings policy brief notes that polarization is often defined as a sorting of political convictions into two distinct camps, but exactly how much of this sorting is taking place is hard to tell, and contrary to misperception the bulk of the U.S. electorate continues to share moderate political persuasions, and is not increasingly split by wedge issues.

In other words, elite polarization in Congress and affective polarization among politically engaged partisans is at a modern high, but mass ideological polarization — the public as a whole — is more moderate, and historical polarization that produced civil war, slavery, and century-long apartheid involved far more division and violence.

Why it feels worse now

Even if not historically unprecedented, several trends make current polarization distinctive:

1.Ideological sorting and geographic sorting: Parties are more internally homogeneous. Democrats have become somewhat more liberal, while Republicans have become much more conservative.

2.Zero overlap: The vanishing middle means compromise is structurally harder.

3.Asymmetry: Polarization has been driven more by a rightward shift among Republicans than a leftward shift among Democrats.

4.Affective, not just ideological: People increasingly dislike the people on the other side, not just their policies. Increasing numbers describe those in the other party as close-minded, dishonest, unintelligent and even immoral.

So: Worse than any time since at least the 1870s-1970s by quantitative measures of congressional voting and inter-party dislike, and polarizing faster than other democracies — but about equal to the Civil War/Reconstruction era, and less violent and socially rupturing than slavery, the Civil War itself, or the Jim Crow era.

Citations (4)

1pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades
Backs: “The answer depends on what kind of polarization you mean, and what period you compare to. 1. By measures of the last 50-150 years: Yes, worse than ever. Ideological polarization in Congress: A Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at…”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically than at any time in the past 50 years; Congress is most polarized since Reconstruction era.
2usc.eduAcademic
Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War
Backs: “A Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years. Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the…”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Ideological distance between parties has grown since the 1970s, with polarization at levels comparable to the Civil War era.
3pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Partisan polarization, in Congress and among public, is greater than ever
Backs: “Members of both parties who have unfavorable opinions of the opposing party doubled between 1994 and 2014, while those who have very unfavorable opinions are at record highs as of 2022. Pew also found that across 48 questions covering values about government, foreign policy and social issues, the average difference…”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Pew found 48-question opinion gap between Republicans and Democrats at 18 points, nearly twice the 1987-2002 gap; very unfavorable views at record highs.
4brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
Thinking About Political Polarization | Brookings
Backs: “Brookings analysts have made a similar point: Today's social conflicts and partisan strife pale in comparison with much of the nation's past. Recall the racial apartheid that scarred America for a century after the end of slavery, and the urban riots and anti-war protests that inflamed the country during the 1960s.”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Brookings analysts say today's social conflict and partisan strife pale compared with much of the nation's past, such as apartheid and 1960s unrest.