Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Polarization is a debated question — I'll search for historical research to compare today with the past.
Short answer: Yes, compared to the recent past - no, compared to the most divisive periods of American history.
Research distinguishes between two types of polarization - ideological (distance on issues/votes) and affective (dislike/distrust of the other side). Both have increased sharply in recent decades, but historical data places current levels as the highest in about 50-150 years, not the highest ever.
Worse than recent decades
Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.
The dynamics have been long-building:
Survey data shows the same trend among voters:
> Across 48 different questions covering values about government, foreign policy, social and economic issues and other realms, the average difference between the opinions of Republicans and Democrats now stands at 18 percentage points…nearly twice the size of the gap in surveys conducted from 1987-2002
Recent work using more than 35,000 responses from the American National Election Studies between 1988 and 2024 estimates that issue polarization has increased 64% since the late 1980s, with almost all of that change occurring after 2008.
Affective polarization - the tendency to view opposing partisans negatively - also shows a significant increase since 1980, rising from 22.64 degrees in 1978 to 40.87 degrees in 2016. Researchers note previous research suggesting that political polarization in the United States is more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members.
Compared internationally, in the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries they examined—the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden.
Not worse than the most polarized eras
Placed in a 150-200 year context, current polarization looks like a return to historical highs rather than a new peak.
Some political scientists have pointed out that — viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries — today’s levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum.
Historians argue the Civil War era was far more divisive:
> "The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War"
> As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century
In short: If the baseline is the post-World War II, relatively low-polarization era of the 1950s-1970s, when about 50 percent of legislators in the two parties overlapped, today is much worse. If the baseline is the late 19th century or the Civil War period, today is roughly as polarized as then, but not more so.
6. [U.S. Political Polarization Charted in New Study | Duke Today](https://today.duke.edu/2013/05/us-political-polarization-charted-new-study )
Citations (6)
- The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades
Backs: “Both have increased sharply in recent decades, but historical data places current levels as the highest in about 50-150 years, not the highest ever. Worse than recent decades. Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the…”
- Partisan polarization, in Congress and among public, is greater than ever
Backs: “Constance Morella of Maryland was defeated, there's been no overlap at all between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House. Survey data shows the same trend among voters: Across 48 different questions covering values about government, foreign policy, social and economic issues…”
- U.S. political polarization started a lot earlier than you might expect
Backs: “Across 48 different questions covering values about government, foreign policy, social and economic issues and other realms, the average difference between the opinions of Republicans and Democrats now stands at 18 percentage points…nearly twice the size of the gap in surveys conducted from 1987-2002. Recent work…”
- ##### PL22CH08\_Malhotra ARjats.cls April 18, 2019 13:39
Backs: “Recent work using more than 35,000 responses from the American National Election Studies between 1988 and 2024 estimates that issue polarization has increased 64% since the late 1980s, with almost all of that change occurring after 2008. Affective polarization - the tendency to view opposing partisans negatively -…”
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War
Backs: “Placed in a 150-200 year context, current polarization looks like a return to historical highs rather than a new peak. Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now…”
- U.S. Political Polarization Charted in New Study | Duke Today
Backs: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era. Researchers at Duke and UNC analyzing Senate…”