Will AI create or take away more job opportunities?

AI's impact on jobs is contested — I'll gather the latest research on whether it will create or eliminate more opportunities.

Short answer: Most major forecasts say AI will do both - displace a huge number of existing jobs, but create slightly more new jobs than it destroys, resulting in a net gain globally. The gains and losses, however, will be very uneven.

1. What the headline forecasts say: Net creation

The most-widely cited forward look is the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025:

> Shifting global trends in technology, economy, demographics and the green transition are projected to generate 170 million new jobs by 2030, while displacing 92 million others

> job disruption will equate to 22% of jobs by 2030, with 170 million new roles set to be created and 92 million displaced, resulting in a net increase of 78 million jobs

Broken down for macro-trends:

> Specifically, macrotrend-driven creation of new jobs is estimated to amount to 170 million jobs, equivalent to 14% of today's total employment. This growth is expected to be offset by the displacement of 92 million current jobs, or 8% of total employment, resulting in a net growth of 78 million jobs (7% of today's total employment) by 2030

A commonly cited alternative WEF-based model from previous editions is similar:

> while approximately 85 million jobs face displacement through AI automation, an estimated 97 million new positions will simultaneously emerge, creating a net positive of 12 million jobs globally (World Economic Forum, 2025; National University, 2025)

Technology overall is described as the most disruptive force, but not purely destructive:

> Technology, overall, is projected to be the most disruptive force in the labour market, with trends in AI and information processing technology expected to create 11 million jobs, while simultaneously displacing 9 million others

Other modelling points in the same direction:

> Goldman Sachs and the IMF both frame AI as a net economic positive over a decade-long horizon, and the World Economic Forum's 2026 modeling shows 170 million new roles created globally against 92 million displaced, a net gain of 78 million positions

Goldman Sachs research summary notes:

> While Goldman Sachs expects that AI productivity will exceed that of earlier technologies, Briggs said the company also forecasts that AI will generate new jobs over the long run and add to the 25 million to 35 million new jobs that are already created each year by the U.S. economy

> This suggests that over 85% of all employment growth in the last 80 years has been fueled by the creation of new jobs driven by new technologies

An IDC Future of Work Survey in August 2025 found a similar nuance in the near-term (18 months):

> Rather than a dour view that AI and agentic AI will only take jobs from the market, this view shows a balanced view where jobs will actually increase more than decrease for entry-level, middle management, and senior-level positions

Research summarized by Yale Budget Lab and Brookings also found:

> While researchers found no evidence of widespread AI-driven job losses, they did find that AI is changing the skills employers are

> Rather than replacing workers across the board, AI is reshaping job requirements and increasing the value of AI literacy and productivity skills

2. What AI will displace: large scale exposure

Forecasts emphasize exposure is much larger than outright job loss:

> Generative artificial intelligence or AI technologies, including the highly popular ChatGPT, could expose around 300 million full-time jobs around the world to automation, a report by Goldman Sachs predicts

> Goldman Sachs estimates that two-thirds of US occupations are exposed to some degree of AI, and that 25% of all US work tasks are automatable
> Their analysis projects that 7% of US jobs could be fully replaced by AI, 63% could be complemented by AI, and 30% would remain unaffected

IMF January 2024:

> roughly 60% of jobs in advanced economies — such as the U.S., UK and EU — are exposed to AI, while 40% of global employment as a whole is prone

McKinsey Global Institute:

> around a third of the country's working hours could be automated by 2030

> automation could displace between 400 million and 800 million people worldwide by 2030, even as the report also suggests the benefits of automation could help create enough new jobs for displaced workers

Employers themselves expect cuts:

> The Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2025 reveals that 40% of employers expect to reduce their workforce where AI can automate tasks

> 77% of employers planning to [upskill workers]. However, 41% plan to reduce their workforce as AI automates certain tasks

Goldman Sachs warns the adjustment will not be painless: it estimates a period of frictional unemployment where the jobless rate could temporarily rise by half a percentage point as displaced workers search for and retrain, and if losses are distributed over 10 years the peak unemployment impact would be less than 1%.

3. Which jobs: creators vs losers

WEF finds fastest-growing roles are technology-driven:

> Leading the fastest growing jobs list are roles such as Big Data Specialist, FinTech Engineers, AI and Machine Learning Specialists and Software and Applications Developers

Fastest-declining:

> respondents expect the fastest- declining roles to include various clerical roles, such as Cashiers and Ticket Clerks, alongside Administrative Assistants and Executive Secretaries, Printing Workers, and Accountants and Auditors

Green transition, care and education also drive large absolute growth:

> Farmworkers top the list of the largest growing job roles in the next five years and are expected to see 35 million more jobs by 2030
> Care jobs, including Nursing Professionals, Social Work and Counselling Professionals, and Personal Care Aides are expected to see significant growth

Bottom line

Most economists therefore describe the AI transition not as mass unemployment, but as massive churn and redefinition - net job creation if workers, businesses and governments invest in upskilling, but painful displacement and wage pressure for those who cannot transition.