Is the US prepared to deal with another pandemic or widespread health crisis?

Is the US Prepared for the Next Pandemic?

Based on current expert assessments, the picture is mixed—with significant warning signs outweighing areas of strength.

Signs of Weakening Preparedness

The most authoritative recent assessment, TFAH's Ready or Not 2026 report, paints a concerning picture. The report notes that in 2025, the country faced the most severe flu season in nearly a decade, rising measles outbreaks, continued H5N1 avian influenza activity, and a growing number of extreme weather events—all while the federal systems built over decades to help states prepare for and respond to emergencies came under significant strain.

TFAH's president was blunt about the implications: "The nation faced the most severe flu season in nearly a decade, the highest annual measles case count since 1991, and devastating weather-related emergencies, even as federal public health funding, staffing, and operational support were destabilized." She added that "Effective readiness requires strong federal leadership, stable investment, and coordinated action across states and communities."

State-level variation is stark. The report evaluates readiness through 10 indicators of state preparedness, placing states into three performance tiers: 20 states in the high-performance tier, 17 states and the District of Columbia in the middle-performance tier. This means a large share of the country falls short of top-tier readiness.

Federal funding cuts are a major concern. The 2026 report highlights that the proposed budget includes a $15.8 billion reduction in HHS discretionary funding—a 12.5 percent decrease from FY 2026 enacted levels—and proposes significant cuts to CDC. Most alarmingly, the proposed budget would eliminate the Hospital Preparedness Program and cut the Public Health Emergency Preparedness Cooperative Agreement by approximately 52 percent.

Key infrastructure gaps persist, including inconsistent paid sick leave access—access to paid sick leave varies widely across U.S. regions—from 98 percent of workers in Pacific states to 67 percent in East South Central states—and gaps are most concentrated among low-wage, part-time, and service-sector workers—despite the fact that paid sick leave reduces disease transmission, supports business continuity, and is increasingly recognized by employers as an important part of preparedness infrastructure.

Structural/Leadership Gaps

The federal government's dedicated pandemic office has been hollowed out. The White House Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy, created after COVID-19, saw its leadership resign, and in 2025, Gerald Parker resigned as head of the office, leaving the office with no employees.

A GAO report from early 2026 also found coordination problems between key HHS emergency programs: coordination between public health departments and health care systems is vital for responding to public health emergencies, but HHS is missing opportunities to coordinate between these two programs.

There's also a long-term funding shortfall in medical countermeasure development—an HHS planning document projects an estimated $33.5 billion funding gap from the total projected need if funding stays at proposed FY2026 levels over five years.

Areas of Continued Investment

It's not all bleak—work continues on next-generation countermeasures, including Phase 2 trials for a universal flu vaccine candidate (BPL-1357) expected in early 2026, alongside advanced nanoparticle-based vaccine candidates for both pandemic and seasonal influenza strains.

The Bottom Line

Experts at a 2026 international virus summit emphasized that ensuring scientific discovery translates into real-world action is critical—breakthroughs in laboratories must be matched by readiness in hospitals, public health systems and communities. They also stressed that public health guidance is only effective if people trust it, and mistrust, misinformation, and inconsistent communication slowed the COVID response—meaning trust must be rebuilt before the next crisis, not during it.

Overall assessment: Current evidence suggests the US is less prepared than it should be, not more. Despite lessons learned from COVID-19, experts and watchdog organizations are raising alarms about federal funding cuts, workforce destabilization, uneven state-level readiness, and the dismantling of coordination offices—all occurring even as new threats (H5N1, measles resurgence, severe flu seasons) actively test the system. TFAH's core warning is that preparedness "cannot rely on a patchwork of limited and unpredictable resources," suggesting the current trajectory is concerning heading into any future large-scale health crisis.