Will AI create or take away more job opportunities?

AI's impact on jobs is hotly debated — I'll pull the latest forecasts on what's being created versus displaced.

The answer is: Both - but most major forecasts predict AI will create more jobs than it displaces in net terms, while dramatically changing what jobs exist, who does them, and where.

Whether the net effect is positive depends on time horizon, country, skill level and policy response.

1. What the major forecasts say: Net creation, with large churn

The most cited projection is the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2025:

> while 92 million jobs might be eliminated by 2030, 170 million new roles will be created because of AI, resulting in a net gain of 78 million.

The same report is summarized elsewhere as:

> by 2030, 22 percent of jobs will be disrupted, resulting in the creation of 170 million new roles, while 92 million existing jobs will be displaced, yielding a net increase of 78 million positions

On a shorter horizon:

> Over the next five years, advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and information-processing technologies will accelerate digital access, creating 19 million jobs while displacing 9 million

A consistent historical argument is also made:

> All major technological breakthroughs have generated new roles that were previously unimaginable. This is emphasised by Autor et. al. who demonstrate that the majority of current employment consists of roles that didn't exist before 1940

This matches prior industrial revolutions like the railway network in the 19th century.

2. What AI is expected to take away

The IMF has warned about exposure:

> AI jobs exposure is 40% in emerging market economies ... and 26% for low-income countries, with an overall total of just under 40%, according to the IMF

> high-skilled jobs, predominantly in advanced economies, are most likely to be affected by AI: approximately 60% of jobs in these markets are at risk

> For advanced economies, AI will have an impact on around 60% of jobs, with half those potentially being taken by AI

Goldman Sachs in 2023 estimated:

> 300M jobs exposed globally

> Roughly two-thirds of current jobs are likely to be affected by some degree of AI automation... about one-fourth of current work tasks could be automated by AI in the U.S.

> About two-thirds of current jobs in the United States and Europe “are exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and AI could potentially substitute a quarter of current work

Jobs identified as most vulnerable include:

> High-exposure jobs with “low complementarity” – meaning the potential for being displaced by AI – include telemarketing

Call center, software publishing, management consulting, advertising, office administration and telephone call centers are already showing headwinds. For example:

> Call center employment, for instance, now stands 39% below trend in the US, 33% below trend in Canada, and 27% below trend in Germany

> jobs like postal service clerks, executive secretaries and payroll clerks are projected to face the most significant decline in numbers

> "Advances in AI and renewable energy are reshaping the (labour) market — driving an increase in demand for many technology or specialist roles while driving a decline for others, such as graphic designers,"

In its survey for the Future of Jobs Report:

> 41 percent of companies anticipate workforce reductions in the next five years due to artificial intelligence

3. What AI is expected to create or augment

The International Labour Organization finds:

> This study assesses global occupational exposure to Generative AI, particularly GPT-4, finding that its main effect is likely to augment rather than automate jobs

Other research concurs:

> For example, as AI takes over certain predictive and analytic aspects of their jobs, it will free workers to become more efficient at creative and decisionmaking tasks that will remain uniquely human for the foreseeable future

New jobs are concentrated in:

> could “more than compensate” for AI’s job displacement

The WEF framework stresses:

> Technology should enhance human capability, not replace human purpose

> Adopt an AI + human-in-the-loop model – automation for execution, humans for judgment, creativity and relationships

4. What has actually happened so far? Limited economy-wide displacement

Despite warnings, data through 2025-2026 shows limited aggregate job loss:

> there’s scant evidence that AI has yet had any large-scale impact on the US labor market

> Again, we found no pattern of increasing AI exposure among the unemployed

Goldman Sachs Research found:

> a 10% occupational exposure to AI is only associated with a 0.1 percentage point drag to annual headcount growth in France, Canada, and the US

> The analysis suggests that “economy-wide hiring headwinds remain limited,”

> “AI-related hiring headwinds are clearly visible in official and unofficial employment data, but impacts are limited to a narrow set of industries and workers,”

The impact so far is uneven:

> While AI’s overall impact on job markets appears limited, recent anecdotes and US labor market data suggest that AI displacement could be stronger among entry-level workers

Some studies find AI is doing what economists expected:

> breaking jobs into tasks, automating the dull bits, and raising the value of what humans do best

5. Why "create vs. take away" is the wrong binary

Most economists frame it as transformation rather than pure creation or destruction:

> skill gaps in the labor market will remain the leading challenge for businesses striving for digital transformation from 2025 to 2030, with 63% of employers citing it as a primary barrier

> In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling trend that policymakers must proactively address

And:

> college educated workers will find it easier to move into such complementarity roles... while older workers and those without post-secondary education will be more vulnerable

Bottom line:

77% of employers plan to prioritize reskilling and upskilling to enhance collaboration with AI systems by 2030, so whether AI is a net creator or destroyer for you will largely depend on access to training, as 50% of the workforce had completed training as part of learning and development programs - but the IMF warns reskilling may be less reliable when target occupations themselves are on a shrinking horizon.