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GPT-5Sep 12, 2026openai/gpt-5-2025-08-07

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Short answer: mostly yes—at least in the United States. But “worse” depends on what you measure.

What’s gotten worse

•In Congress (elite polarization): Roll‑call–based measures show Democrats and Republicans are now farther apart ideologically than at any time in the modern record since the late 19th century, with almost no overlap between the parties. Voteview’s updated DW‑NOMINATE series (Sept 4, 2026) places today’s House and Senate at or near historical extremes on the liberal‑conservative dimension.[1]
•Among the public (affective polarization): Americans’ feelings toward the opposing party have grown sharply more negative. In 2022, 62% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats said they had “very unfavorable” views of the other party—roughly triple the shares from 2002. That’s the highest in decades of Pew tracking.[2]

What hasn’t clearly gotten “worse”

•Issue extremity among ordinary Americans: The public has become more ideologically consistent and better “sorted” into left/right camps, but evidence for a mass shift to extreme policy positions is mixed. Pew’s long‑running scale shows a larger share of people holding consistently liberal or consistently conservative views than in the 1990s, which reflects sorting as much as extremity. Research also emphasizes social/identity “sorting” (e.g., race, religion, culture aligning with party) as a key driver of hostility.[3]

How today compares with deeper history

•Compared with the unusually low‑polarization mid‑20th century (roughly the 1940s–1970s), polarization today is much higher by every major metric.[1]
•Compared with the most explosive eras (e.g., the 1850s run‑up to the Civil War), contemporary polarization—while severe—has not produced the same level of sectional rupture and system‑breaking conflict. Even Poole and Rosenthal, whose measures document today’s extremes in Congress, note earlier periods (1890s and especially the slavery crisis) were at least as destabilizing.[4]

Outside the U.S.

•Internationally, affective polarization has risen in several democracies, but the increase has been unusually steep in the United States in recent decades.[5]

Bottom line: If you mean the United States today (as of 2026), polarization is near modern highs in Congress and interpersonal animosity between partisans is the worst observed in decades. But the public isn’t uniformly more extreme on every issue, and U.S. history still contains earlier episodes—especially the 1850s—when polarization was even more system‑threatening.[1]

If you had a different country in mind, tell me which one and I’ll tailor the answer.

Citations (5)

  1. 1voteview.comAcademic
    Voteview | Polarization in Congress

    Backs: “Voteview’s updated DW‑NOMINATE series (Sept 4, 2026) places today’s House and Senate at or near historical extremes on the liberal‑conservative dimension.”

  2. 2pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2022/08/PP_2022.09.08_partisan-hostility_REPORT.pdf

    Backs: “In 2022, 62% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats said they had “very unfavorable” views of the other party—roughly triple the shares from 2002. That’s the highest in decades of Pew tracking.”

  3. 3pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Political Polarization and Growing Ideological Consistency | Pew Research Center

    Backs: “Research also emphasizes social/identity “sorting” (e.g., race, religion, culture aligning with party) as a key driver of hostility.”

  4. 4voteview.comAcademic
    ideological poles. Whether we gauge congressional polarization by the difference of party means, the difference between the parties’ 10th percentile scores, or any number of alternative measures, Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the end of the Civil War.

    Backs: “Even Poole and Rosenthal, whose measures document today’s extremes in Congress, note earlier periods (1890s and especially the slavery crisis) were at least as destabilizing.”

  5. 5nber.orgAcademic
    Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization | NBER

    Backs: “Internationally, affective polarization has risen in several democracies, but the increase has been unusually steep in the United States in recent decades.”