Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Is voter fraud a significant issue in the U.S.? I'll search for the latest studies and data to give you a balanced answer.

In the U.S., voter fraud exists but research and government investigations consistently find it is very rare and not at a scale that affects national election outcomes.

What research shows

•Multiple reviews conclude voter fraud "remains a very rare occurrence across the country".

•The Brennan Center for Justice, which has studied the issue extensively, summarizes: "Research has been consistent over time that voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome".

•The general finding in the literature is that "voter fraud is extremely rare and difficult to prove in the United States".

Specific rates cited include:

•The Brennan Center's report The Truth About Voter Fraud reviewed elections meticulously studied for fraud and "found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent", noting it is "more likely... that an American 'will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls.'"

•A comprehensive 2014 study "found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast."

•A U.S. Department of Justice unit formed to find federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections, and "were able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent".

•Even the libertarian Cato Institute has said that "noncitizens don't illegally vote in detectable numbers."

Courts and government audits have reached similar conclusions, with multiple courts noting only a handful of convictions out of millions or tens of millions of votes cast in states like Texas, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

What the Heritage Foundation database shows

The Heritage Foundation maintains the largest public database tracking proven cases of election fraud. Its counts have grown over time as more cases are added, with the foundation reporting at different times:

•"1,088 instances of voter fraud"

•"1,178 proven instances of fraud, including more than 1,020 criminal convictions."

•"1,317 proven instances of voter fraud, with 1,134 cases leading to criminal convictions."

Heritage has described this as showing that "voter fraud is real and ongoing" and that it is "a Real and Vast Problem".

Analysts across the political spectrum note that when these numbers are placed in context of total votes cast, rates are very low:

> "Scrolling through the Heritage database at first glance offers the impression that there's a lot of fraud—but a more careful look reveals just the opposite. To come up with thousands of instances...Heritage staff had to go back decades in time where there have been hundreds of millions of votes cast and a very small number of cases of election fraud have been found, none of which affected election outcomes."

The Brookings Institution analysis of Heritage's own data illustrated this:

•"In the highly contested state of Pennsylvania, Heritage data goes back 30 years and covers 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast and found only 39 cases of voter fraud."

•"The percentage of fraudulent votes in Arizona over the last 25 years of elections was a minuscule .0000845%, and no election outcome in the U.S. has ever been altered by ballot fraud."

•In Arizona specifically, "Heritage had to go back 25 years, over which there were 36 elections held and 42,626,379 ballots cast, in order to come up with 36 cases of fraud."

Types of fraud and where it is most often found

Studies find the rarest type is in-person voter impersonation at the polls. More of the proven cases in the Heritage database involve absentee ballot fraud, duplicate voting, false registrations, vote buying, or felons/non-citizens voting while ineligible — but still at rates far below 0.01% of ballots cast.

The consensus across academic studies, news investigations, and bipartisan election officials is:

•Fraud does occur in isolated cases and is prosecuted when found

•It is not systematic or widespread

•There is no evidence it has altered a federal election outcome in modern history

Citations (2)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Backs: “The general finding in the literature is that "voter fraud is extremely rare and difficult to prove in the United States". Specific rates cited include: The Brennan Center's report The Truth About Voter Fraud reviewed elections meticulously studied for fraud and "found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025…”
2brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very | Brookings
Backs: “"Scrolling through the Heritage database at first glance offers the impression that there's a lot of fraud—but a more careful look reveals just the opposite. To come up with thousands of instances...Heritage staff had to go back decades in time where there have been hundreds of millions of votes cast and a very small…”