Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?
Some sources (CIS, Bracero studies, St. Louis Fed) suggest native workers or adjustment could offset losses or that immigration's role is limited, while others (Forbes, Washington Post, Korea studies) show restrictions cause shortages and output losses.
No, not automatically or across the board, but it would tighten labor markets and cause shortages or higher costs in specific sectors, with adjustments over time via wages, automation, participation, and demand effects. The answer depends on the scale and type of immigration stopped (all net migration vs. illegal/low-skill only), time horizon, sectors, and accompanying policies. Economics shows labor markets clear through prices and substitution rather than permanent "shortages," but frictions, demographics, and complementarities matter.[1]
Demographics and Labor Force Growth
Native-born working-age population growth in the US (and many advanced economies) has slowed or stalled due to low fertility and aging/retirement of baby boomers. Immigration has driven a large share—often nearly all—of recent US labor force growth.[2][3]
Stopping inflows shrinks potential labor supply growth. Recent US enforcement/deportation trends and border tightening have already been linked by some analyses to slower payroll growth and tighter conditions in immigrant-heavy areas.[3][7]
Sector-Specific Effects
Certain industries rely heavily on immigrants (especially lower-skilled or unauthorized) for physically demanding, seasonal, or location-specific work that many natives avoid at prevailing wages/conditions:
Empirical natural experiments support short-term disruptions:
High immigration periods (e.g., 2021-2024) correlated with filling vacancies and dampening some wage pressure in tight markets, consistent with immigrants alleviating shortages under complementary production.[20]
Adjustments, Wages, and Native Workers
Markets adjust:
Wage impacts of immigration overall: Meta-analyses and reviews (National Academies, many studies) find average effects on native wages near zero. Small negative effects sometimes appear for prior immigrants or the lowest-skilled natives/teenagers; positive or zero for most groups due to demand/complementarity/productivity effects. George Borjas finds larger negatives for high school dropouts (a small share of workforce); others (Card, Peri) find minimal or positive. Restricting immigration is unlikely to produce large wage gains for most natives.[25][16][26]
A Canadian analysis suggested high immigration may not reduce economy-wide vacancies (and could raise them) because demand grows with population/GDP.[27]
Broader and Long-Term Considerations
Bottom line: Abruptly stopping immigration (especially low-skilled/unauthorized inflows that dominate certain sectors) would cause noticeable short-to-medium-term labor shortages, output drops, higher costs/prices, and disruptions in agriculture, construction, hospitality, and similar fields. Natives would not seamlessly fill all roles. Over time, higher wages, automation, shifted production, and possibly higher native participation would mitigate this, alongside a smaller overall economy. Evidence does not strongly support large employment/wage windfalls for natives from restrictions—often the opposite via demand and complementarity channels—and demographic realities make zero immigration costly for growth. Selective, skills-based, or temporary systems plus domestic reforms (training, participation incentives, housing) offer more nuanced paths than pure open or closed borders. Outcomes also hinge on enforcement practicality, legal pathways, and global talent competition.
Citations (28)
- https://www.migrationpolicy.org/publication/what-role-can-immigration-play-addressing-current-and-future-labor-shortages
Backs: “Economics shows labor markets clear through prices and substitution rather than permanent "shortages," but frictions, demographics, and complementarities matter.”
background, article, neutral. Claim: Labor markets clear through prices and substitution rather than permanent shortages, but frictions and demographics matter.
- https://econofact.org/immigration-and-waning-us-labor-force-growth
Backs: “Immigration has driven a large share—often nearly all—of recent US labor force growth.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Immigration has driven a large share of recent US labor force growth as native working-age growth has slowed.
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewtisch/2026/05/28/the-real-immigration-tragedy/
Backs: “Immigration has driven a large share—often nearly all—of recent US labor force growth.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Immigration drives labor force growth; enforcement linked to slower payroll growth and large cumulative GDP hits.
- https://www.fwd.us/news/immigration-inflation
Backs: “Under zero immigration, the US working-age population could shrink ~11% by 2040; low immigration keeps it flat. Status-quo or higher levels allow modest growth.”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Under zero immigration the US working-age population could shrink about 11% by 2040; wages and prices adjust.
- https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2024/labor-force-participation-rates-for-foreign-and-native-born-women-increased-in-2023.htm
Backs: “Foreign-born men have higher labor force participation than native-born men.”
statistic, data page, neutral. Claim: Immigrants are roughly 18-20% of workforce; participation rates differ for foreign and native-born.
- https://bls.gov/news.release/forbrn.nr0.htm
Backs: “Foreign-born men have higher labor force participation than native-born men.”
statistic, official document, neutral. Claim: Foreign-born men have higher labor force participation than native-born men; immigrants overrepresented in certain roles.
- https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2026/07/30/trump-immigration-crackdown-could-hurt-economy-jobs/91082944007/
Backs: “Recent US enforcement/deportation trends and border tightening have already been linked by some analyses to slower payroll growth and tighter conditions in immigrant-heavy areas.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Enforcement and border tightening linked to slower payroll growth and tighter conditions in immigrant-heavy areas.
- https://san.com/cc/immigration-crackdowns-spur-fears-of-labor-shortages-for-farmers/
Backs: “Farmers report leaving crops unharvested amid enforcement fears or reduced inflows; H-2A visas exist but are limited/bureaucratic.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Farmers report unharvested crops amid enforcement fears; H-2A visas are limited and bureaucratic.
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/09/business/economy/immigrant-workers-deportation-fears.html
Backs: “Farmers report leaving crops unharvested amid enforcement fears or reduced inflows; H-2A visas exist but are limited/bureaucratic.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Agriculture and construction rely on immigrant labor; shortages delay projects and raise costs.
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/14/immigration-crackdown-causes-massive-shortages-unskilled-labor/
Backs: “High foreign-born shares; reports of vacancies and service cuts with reduced immigration or chilling effects from enforcement.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Hospitality, food processing, landscaping and care sectors report vacancies and service cuts with reduced immigration.
- https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-immigration-barriers-native-workers-evidence-us-exclusion-mexican-braceros
Backs: “Adjustments came via mechanization, crop shifts, and technology adoption rather than natives flooding fields.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: After the Bracero program ended, native farm employment and wages barely rose; adjustment came via mechanization.
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6040835/
Backs: “Adjustments came via mechanization, crop shifts, and technology adoption rather than natives flooding fields.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Bracero exclusion led to technology adoption and crop shifts rather than natives filling fields.
- https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/economic-consequences-low-skilled-immigration-sudden-stop-evidence-koreas-guest
Backs: “Firms cut production/output; did not substantially increase native hiring. Natives were poor substitutes at existing wages/conditions.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Korea's guest-worker stop cut firm output without substantially raising native hiring; natives poor substitutes; complementarities disrupted.
- https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/restricting-hiring-low-skill-immigrants-hurts-firms-and-does-not-benefit-native-born
Backs: “Firms cut production/output; did not substantially increase native hiring. Natives were poor substitutes at existing wages/conditions.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: H-2B visa lottery losses cut firm output and did not benefit native-born workers.
- https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-labor-market-impact-of-deportations/
Backs: “Reduced foreign-born workers and native employment in affected areas (via lower demand and complementarities); some wage effects mixed or negative for natives. Childcare shortages reduced mothers’ labor supply.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Deportations reduced foreign-born and native employment in affected areas.
- https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2024/10/immigration-working-class-wages/680128/
Backs: “Reduced foreign-born workers and native employment in affected areas (via lower demand and complementarities); some wage effects mixed or negative for natives. Childcare shortages reduced mothers’ labor supply.”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Deportation effects on native wages are mixed; immigration's average effect on native wages is near zero.
- https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/immigration-shortfall-may-be-a-headwind-for-labor-supply/
Backs: “One St. Louis Fed analysis found limited aggregate causal role.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Immigration shortfall contributed to labor supply tightness in immigrant-reliant sectors.
- https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2023/02/role-of-immigration-in-us-labor-market-tightness/
Backs: “One St. Louis Fed analysis found limited aggregate causal role.”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Immigration shortfall contributed to post-pandemic labor market tightness alongside other causes.
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2024/nov/effect-covid-immigration-restrictions-post-pandemic-labor-market-tightness
Backs: “One St. Louis Fed analysis found limited aggregate causal role.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: St. Louis Fed analysis found limited aggregate causal role of COVID immigration restrictions in tightness.
- https://cepr.org/publications/dp21301
Backs: “High immigration periods (e.g., 2021-2024) correlated with filling vacancies and dampening some wage pressure in tight markets, consistent with immigrants alleviating shortages under complementary production.”
evidence, official document, points to yes. Claim: High immigration in 2021-2024 correlated with filling vacancies and dampening wage pressure.
- https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/02/unauthorized-immigration-effects-on-local-labor-markets/
Backs: “Aggregate job creation often roughly matches immigrant inflows.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Immigrants also consume, so removing them shrinks local demand and jobs for natives.
- https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/13/economy/trumps-immigration-jobs-hiring
Backs: “Aggregate job creation often roughly matches immigrant inflows.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Aggregate job creation often roughly matches immigrant inflows.
- https://cis.org/Press-Release/New-Analyses-Show-Huge-Pool-Untapped-Labor-US
Backs: “Higher wages from tighter supply could draw some in, and restrictionists argue it forces better domestic policies.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Large pool of non-working US-born adults could join the labor force.
- https://cis.org/Camarota/Labor-Force-Participation-Remains-Low-All-States
Backs: “Higher wages from tighter supply could draw some in, and restrictionists argue it forces better domestic policies.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Native labor force participation remains low across states, indicating untapped labor.
- https://www.kcg-kiel.org/kcg-working-paper-no-31-does-immigration-affect-native-wages-a-meta-analysis/
Backs: “Restricting immigration is unlikely to produce large wage gains for most natives.”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Meta-analysis finds average effects of immigration on native wages near zero.
- https://lantpritchett.substack.com/p/the-impact-of-immigration-on-wages
Backs: “Restricting immigration is unlikely to produce large wage gains for most natives.”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Immigration's wage effects on natives are small; debate between Borjas and others.
- https://www.thesilo.ca/tag/immigration/?__cf_chl_rt_tk=auzJe.xV0AfoKdKRvm8q9btuts1SNk7RxPS6qYoP5dw-1786251030-1.0.1.1-ctt3uiuzDiXfH6E2_Evq7.ZKEHiqR_4qjtJokzOElxU
Backs: “A Canadian analysis suggested high immigration may not reduce economy-wide vacancies (and could raise them) because demand grows with population/GDP.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Canadian analysis suggests high immigration may not reduce economy-wide vacancies because demand grows too.
- https://mmr2025.mixedmigration.org/mmr/2025/labour-shortages-and-anti-immigration-stances/
Backs: “Europe, Japan, South Korea face similar aging/shortages and have expanded (sometimes reluctantly) immigration pathways despite political resistance.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Europe, Japan and South Korea face aging-related shortages and expanded immigration pathways.