Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Leans yes

To answer whether political polarization is worse than in the past, it helps to distinguish between the recent past (the last 40 to 50 years) and the deep past (the 19th century).

In short: Yes, polarization is worse than at any point in modern living memory. However, it has not yet reached the ultimate structural collapse of the U.S. Civil War era, though by some legislative metrics, our government is more divided now than at any time since the Reconstruction era of the late 1870s.

1. Why Polarization is Worse Than the Recent Past (1950s–1990s)

If we compare today’s political climate to the mid-to-late 20th century, polarization is drastically worse by every measurable metric. Political scientists divide this phenomenon into two categories:

•Affective Polarization (How we feel about each other): This is the emotional dislike and distrust of the political "out-group". According to long-term studies, affective polarization in the U.S. has grown rapidly since the late 1970s—faster than in almost any other comparable Western democracy.

•The Marriage Test: In 1960, only 4% to 5% of Americans said they would be displeased if their child married someone of the opposing political party. By 2010, that number had jumped to roughly one-third of Democrats and half of Republicans.

•The Morality Test: A Pew Research Center poll revealed a sharp rise in partisan hostility: by 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed members of the opposing party as "more immoral" than other Americans—up dramatically from 47% and 35% respectively in 2016.

•Ideological Polarization (What we believe): A study by the University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab tracked polarization from the end of the Reagan era to 2024. The researchers found that divisions on social and political issues increased by 64% since 1988, with almost all of that rise occurring after 2008. Interestingly, the study noted that much of this issue division was driven by the American left moving 31.5% further to the left on social issues, while the American right remained relatively stable (moving only 2.8% further conservative) over the same 35-year period.

•The Death of the Political Moderate: In the mid-20th century, parties were ideologically diverse. There were liberal Northern Republicans and conservative Southern Democrats. This created "cross-cutting cleavages" where politicians had to compromise to get things done. Today, "partisan sorting" is almost complete. If you are a Democrat, you are almost certainly liberal; if you are a Republican, you are almost certainly conservative. There is virtually no ideological overlap left in Congress.

2. How Today Compares to the Deep Past (The 19th Century)

When looking at the entire history of the United States, we have been in similarly fractured territory before, most notably during the mid-to-late 19th century.

•The Civil War (1861–1865): Polarization in the 1850s and 1860s was fundamentally worse because it resulted in physical, military secession and a war that killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. Historians note that today's division is political, cultural, and institutional, but the country is not militarily divided along clear state borders the way it was in 1861.

•Reconstruction and the Gilded Age (1870s–1890s): Political scientists use a metric called "DW-NOMINATE" scores to measure how far apart members of Congress vote. According to this data, legislative polarization in Congress today has officially reached—and in some years surpassed—the levels of polarization seen during the Gilded Age and the Reconstruction era. Compromise in Congress is as difficult now as it was during the period of post-Civil War bitterness.

3. Why Today’s Polarization Feels Uniquely Destructive

Even if we are not fighting a physical civil war, many historians and sociologists argue that modern polarization is uniquely dangerous due to new systemic drivers:

•The "Fusion" of Identity: In the past, political affiliation was just one of many identities. Today, political identity has fused with geographic (urban vs. rural), religious, racial, and cultural identities. When politics becomes deeply tied to who you are rather than just what policies you support, compromise is viewed as a betrayal of one's identity.

•The Media and the Outrage Economy: In the 19th century, newspapers were openly partisan, but they did not have the reach or speed of modern technology. Today's digital media ecosystem—from social media algorithms to partisan cable news—is economically built to maximize user engagement. Because outrage, sensationalism, and fear drive the most clicks and views, the media landscape actively profit off of widening the divide.

•The Illusion of Extremity: Scholars point out that the average American is actually more moderate than they seem. However, because the most extreme voices are the loudest on social media and receive the most news coverage, ordinary citizens suffer from "false polarization"—believing the other side is far more extreme and hostile than they actually are, which in turn drives real defensive hostility.

Summary

If you compare today to the 1950s or 1980s, yes—the country is vastly more polarized, hostile, and gridlocked. If you compare today to 1861, we are not in a state of armed, geographic civil war. However, because today's divisions are turbocharged by modern algorithms, complete partisan sorting, and the alignment of our personal identities with our voting habits, the polarization of the 21st century is structurally different—and in many ways harder to escape—than any era of division before it.

Citations (8)

1usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “In short: Yes, polarization is worse than at any point in modern living memory. However, it has not yet reached the ultimate structural collapse of the U.S. Civil War era, though by some legislative metrics, our government is more divided now than at any time since the Reconstruction era of the late 1870s.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Polarization has not reached Civil War-era collapse, but by some legislative metrics Congress is more divided than at any time since Reconstruction.
2democracyproject.orgNonprofits and think tanks
democracyproject.org
Backs: “In short: Yes, polarization is worse than at any point in modern living memory. However, it has not yet reached the ultimate structural collapse of the U.S. Civil War era, though by some legislative metrics, our government is more divided now than at any time since the Reconstruction era of the late 1870s.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Polarization has not reached Civil War-era collapse, but by some legislative metrics Congress is more divided than at any time since Reconstruction.
3wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “Affective Polarization (How we feel about each other): This is the emotional dislike and distrust of the political "out-group". According to long-term studies, affective polarization in the U.S.”
background, reference entry, points to yes. Claim: Affective polarization is emotional dislike and distrust of the political out-group.
4brown.eduAcademic
brown.edu
Backs: “According to long-term studies, affective polarization in the U.S. has grown rapidly since the late 1970s—faster than in almost any other comparable Western democracy. The Marriage Test: In 1960, only 4% to 5% of Americans said they would be displeased if their child married someone of the opposing political party.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Affective polarization in the U.S. has grown rapidly since the late 1970s, faster than in comparable Western democracies.
5syr.eduAcademic
syr.edu
Backs: “The Morality Test: A Pew Research Center poll revealed a sharp rise in partisan hostility: by 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed members of the opposing party as "more immoral" than other Americans—up dramatically from 47% and 35% respectively in 2016. Ideological Polarization (What we believe): A…”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: By 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the other party as more immoral, up from 47% and 35% in 2016.
6cam.ac.ukAcademic
cam.ac.uk
Backs: “Ideological Polarization (What we believe): A study by the University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab tracked polarization from the end of the Reagan era to 2024. The researchers found that divisions on social and political issues increased by 64% since 1988, with almost all of that rise occurring after 2008.”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: A Cambridge study found issue divisions increased 64% since 1988, mostly after 2008, driven largely by the left moving further left.
7wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “If you are a Democrat, you are almost certainly liberal; if you are a Republican, you are almost certainly conservative. There is virtually no ideological overlap left in Congress.”
evidence, reference entry, points to yes. Claim: Partisan sorting is nearly complete: Democrats are almost all liberal and Republicans almost all conservative, with little ideological overlap in Congress.
8thehilltoponline.comNews and media
thehilltoponline.com
Backs: “The Civil War (1861–1865): Polarization in the 1850s and 1860s was fundamentally worse because it resulted in physical, military secession and a war that killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. Historians note that today's division is political, cultural, and institutional, but the country is not militarily divided…”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Polarization in the 1850s and 1860s was worse, resulting in secession and a war that killed hundreds of thousands.