Is voter fraud a problem in the US?
According to extensive research from academics, nonpartisan think tanks, and government reviews, voter fraud in the United States is real but extremely rare, and does not occur at a scale that could plausibly affect election outcomes.
What the research shows
Multiple peer-reviewed and institutional studies over the past two decades have reached similar conclusions. Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.
The Brennan Center for Justice, reviewing elections that had been closely studied, found that incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent for voter impersonation fraud specifically. Separate research at Arizona State University found similarly tiny numbers — 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud nationwide from 2000–2012, and a follow-up study found zero successful prosecutions for impersonation fraud in five states from 2012–2016. A broader 2012 study that pulled records from every state found the overall fraud rate to be "infinitesimal" and impersonation fraud by voters at the polls to be the rarest fraud of all: only 10 cases alleged in 12 years.
Mail-in voting specifically
Since mail voting has been a particular focus of fraud claims, researchers have studied it directly. Research published by the Brookings Institute found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by mail, equivalent to roughly four out of every 10 million. Looking specifically at 2020, researchers calculated that fraud cases comprised just 0.000051% of the mail ballots cast. An Associated Press review also found no cases of fraud, vandalism, or theft related to the expanded use of drop boxes for mailed ballots in that year's election that could have impacted the outcome.
Even conservative-aligned data confirms rarity
Notably, even the Heritage Foundation's own "Election Fraud Database" — often cited by those arguing fraud is a major problem — supports the same conclusion when put in context. Brookings' analysis of that database found that in Arizona, Heritage had to go back 25 years, over which there were 36 elections held and 42,626,379 ballots cast, in order to come up with 36 cases of fraud, a percentage of .0000845%, and no election outcome was altered by ballot fraud throughout that time period. Similarly, in Pennsylvania, Heritage data goes back 30 years and covers 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast and found only 39 cases of voter fraud.
A Brookings scholar summarized it this way: "There are a few cases of election fraud in every campaign. But it's not systemic. It's not widespread. It's generally not organized, and I don't think ever has affected the actual outcome."
Why it's so rare
Part of the explanation is simple deterrence: it's a criminal offense to commit ballot fraud, and most people don't want to go to jail, which is a sufficient deterrent for almost everybody — it's probably a very small number of people who even attempt it.
Public perception vs. reality
There's a notable gap between the evidence and public belief. Surveys show substantial proportions of U.S. registered voters believe that various types of election fraud are common, with partisanship correlating strongly with this belief — Republicans are consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common, even controlling for other factors. Researchers also found that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of election fraud, even when controlling for partisanship.
Bottom line: The overwhelming consensus among election researchers, courts, and bipartisan election officials is that voter fraud does happen occasionally, but at a rate so low — often measured in fractions of a percent or single-digit cases per state per decade — that it is not a systemic problem and has not been shown to change any election outcome in modern U.S. history. The debate over voter fraud is largely driven by political rhetoric and misinformation rather than documented evidence, which is why perceptions of fraud remain much higher than actual, verified instances.
Citations (13)
- Frontiers | American views about election fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Research over the past two decades has found no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. ”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Brennan Center found voter impersonation fraud incident rates between 0.0003 and 0.0025 percent in closely studied elections.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “The project found 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud nationwide from 2000–2012. The follow-up study, which looked for fraud specifically in states ...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Arizona State research found 10 voter impersonation cases nationwide from 2000–2012 and zero successful prosecutions in five states 2012–2016.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth | Brennan Center for Justice
Source excerpt: “A 2012 study exhaustively pulled records from every state for all alleged election fraud, and found the overall fraud rate to be “infinitesimal” and i...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: A 2012 all-state study found the overall fraud rate 'infinitesimal' and impersonation at the polls the rarest fraud, only 10 cases in 12 years.
- The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “Research published by the Brookings Institute in November found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Brookings research found mail-in voting fraud accounts for 0.000043% of mail ballots, about four in 10 million.
- The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “In the 2020 election, in which a record number of Americans voted by mail and which Trump has repeatedly claimed he lost as a result of voter fraud, t...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: In 2020, fraud cases comprised just 0.000051% of mail ballots cast.
- The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “An Associated Press survey of state and election officials in both Democratic- and Republican-run states also found no cases of fraud, vandalism, or t...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: An AP review found no drop box fraud, vandalism, or theft that could have affected the 2020 outcome.
- How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very | Brookings
Source excerpt: “Looking at the seven closest states, we find for instance that in Arizona, Heritage had to go back 25 years, over which there were 36 elections held a...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: In Arizona, Heritage's database showed 36 fraud cases over 25 years, 36 elections and 42.6 million ballots, with no outcome altered.
- How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very | Brookings
Source excerpt: “In the highly contested state of Pennsylvania, Heritage data goes back 30 years and covers 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast and found onl...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: In Pennsylvania, Heritage data covering 30 years, 32 elections and over 100 million votes found only 39 fraud cases.
- Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “"There are a few cases of election fraud in every campaign," West said. "But it's not systemic. It's not widespread. It's generally not organized, a...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: A Brookings scholar said election fraud cases are few, not systemic or widespread, and have never affected the outcome.
- Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “"It's a criminal offense to commit ballot fraud, and most people don't want to go to jail. So that's a sufficient deterrent for almost everybody," Dar...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Criminal penalties and fear of jail deter almost everyone from committing ballot fraud.
- www.frontiersin.org
Source excerpt: “In our analysis, we show that substantial proportions of U.S. registered voters believe that these types of election fraud are common. Our multivariat...”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Substantial proportions of registered voters believe election fraud types are common, with Republicans more likely to say so.
- www.frontiersin.org
Source excerpt: “We also find that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when we control for pa...”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Conspiratorial thinking strongly correlates with belief in election fraud, even controlling for partisanship.