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Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

NoSays it is contested

Whether voter fraud is a problem is debated — I'll survey the evidence on how often it occurs and what safeguards exist.

In the U.S., voter fraud exists but all systematic reviews find it is very rare relative to the number of votes cast.

What the data shows

•There is no comprehensive government database of voter fraud - it is not a crime tracked comprehensively by government agencies, though many are tasked with policing it.
•Research has been consistent that "voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome".
•Multiple independent analyses put the incidence at effectively zero for practical election outcomes. For example:
•A Massachusetts Institute of Technology study of mail ballots over two decades called mail-in fraud "exceedingly rare" and reported rates on the order of 0.00006 percent of votes nationally
•The Brennan Center found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent
•Brookings' review of Heritage Foundation case data calculated that in Arizona fraudulent votes were roughly 0.0000845 percent across decades of elections, and in Pennsylvania Heritage data goes back 30 years and covers 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast and found only 39 cases of voter fraud
•The percentage of fraudulent votes in Arizona over the last 25 years was a minuscule .0000845%, and no election outcome in the U.S. has ever been altered by ballot fraud

The Department of Justice investigated over 300 million votes cast between 2002 and 2007 and found no cases of voter impersonation fraud.

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council described the 2020 election as "the most secure in American history".

How many proven cases have been documented?

Scholarly and investigative summaries conclude that voter fraud exists but is scarce. The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database catalogs roughly 1,561 instances that produced about 1,325 convictions across many decades.

Heritage itself has reported different totals as it updates the database over time:

•1,088 proven instances including 949 criminal convictions
•1,302 cases of proven election fraud
•Other compilations cite 1,465 proven cases over 44 years - an average of roughly 33 cases per year

The database is described as a non-exhaustive list of election fraud cases from around the country. Brookings noted that to come up with thousands of instances nationwide, Heritage staff had to go back decades where there have been hundreds of millions of votes cast and a very small number of cases were found.

Analyses that put proven cases against total ballots conclude they constitute a rounding error compared to billions of ballots cast.

What types of fraud occur?

The U.S. government defines voter or ballot fraud as one of three broad categories of federal election crimes. Types of fraud include voter impersonation or in-person voter fraud, mail-in or absentee ballot fraud, illegal voting by noncitizens, and double voting.

When fraud is proven, it tends to be small-scale schemes rather than mass conspiracies. Reviews find most reported incidents are traceable to clerical errors or bad data matching practices rather than intentional fraud.

The Brennan Center notes that while impersonation fraud is vanishingly rare, there have been confirmed examples of fraudulent activity involving absentee ballots. That is the category most often cited in proven cases, along with false registrations, vote buying, double voting, and illegal voting by individuals with felony convictions or noncitizens.

Two perspectives on whether it is a "problem"

View that it is not a widespread problem: Citing the rates above, researchers, election officials, and courts argue fraud is too rare to affect outcomes and does not justify broad restrictions on voting. They argue most allegations do not withstand systematic review and that safeguards already exist.

View that it is a problem requiring safeguards: Others argue that even rare instances matter because they can affect close local races, undermine confidence, and reveal vulnerabilities in registration and absentee-ballot systems. Heritage and other groups that maintain fraud databases argue the cases, while small in number, prove the need for voter ID laws, citizenship verification, and improved ballot security. The Brookings analysis acknowledges that "voter fraud is serious, which is why there are many protections built into the system".

Bottom line

Empirical evidence across decades leads to a consistent conclusion: proven voter fraud is extremely rare relative to votes cast — measured in orders of magnitude of 0.0000X percent — and no rigorous body of research has shown fraud at the scale necessary to flip major statewide or national elections.

At the same time, isolated cases do occur and are prosecuted, and targeted enforcement and administrative fixes are widely supported to maintain accuracy and public confidence.

Citations (2)

  1. 1factually.coLow provenance
    How rare is voter fraud compared to total votes in US ...

    Backs: “Research has been consistent that "voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome". Multiple independent analyses put the incidence at effectively zero for practical election outcomes. For example: A Massachusetts Institute of Technology study of mail…”

    statistic, article, points to no. Claim: An MIT study of mail ballots found mail-in fraud exceedingly rare, on the order of 0.00006 percent of votes nationally.

  2. 2brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
    How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very | Brookings

    Backs: “Brookings' review of Heritage Foundation case data calculated that in Arizona fraudulent votes were roughly 0.0000845 percent across decades of elections, and in Pennsylvania Heritage data goes back 30 years and covers 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast and found only 39 cases of voter fraud”

    statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Brookings' review of Heritage data found fraudulent votes in Arizona were about 0.0000845 percent, and Pennsylvania had only 39 cases across 32 elections.