What is the current state of US politics?

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As of September 11, 2026, the United States is in a period of unified Republican control but facing a highly competitive midterm election season marked by low presidential approval, narrow congressional majorities, and high polarization.

1. Executive Branch - Second Trump Term

The country is in Republican President Donald Trump's nonconsecutive second term.

Early analysis of the term notes that Trump has sought to expand executive power and "robustly used his presidential authority to advance his agenda". Princeton historian Julian Zelizer argued this put to rest the myth that the Republican Party favors more limited government.

By July 31, President Trump had signed 271 executive orders in his second term, with a total of 452 orders across his two terms as of earlier counts. Other noted actions include:

•Tariffs imposed on much of the world with intent to re-industrialize America, criticized for worsening inflation

•Strengthened funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and deportations

•Outbreak of the 2026 Iran war on February 28, which introduced rising gasoline prices and economic challenges as central concerns. Analysts argued gasoline prices were the most direct channel for war costs to voters and domestic electoral pressure from fuel costs was a primary driver behind the push toward a ceasefire ahead of midterms.

2. Congress - Narrow Republican Majorities in 119th Congress

The 2024 election redefined the political landscape with the Republican party securing control of the Senate and narrowing its majority in the House.

As of August 31, 2026:

•House: Republicans currently hold 218 seats while Democrats have 214. There are two vacant seats due to resignations. The slim margin means coalition-building and bipartisan cooperation will be critical for passing legislation.

•Senate: Republicans have the majority with 53 seats to Democrats' 47 seats, including two independents who caucus with Democrats.

In the 2024 cycle, Republicans flipped four Senate seats - Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, and flipped eight House seats while Democrats flipped 14.

Republican House leadership includes:

•House Judiciary Committee: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)

•House Oversight Committee: Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.)

•House Ways and Means Committee: Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.)

3. Public Opinion and Polarization

President Trump's approval is low by historical standards and steadily declined.

•September 2026 average: 37.9% approve / 58.2% disapprove (net -20.3) compiled from Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, Quinnipiac, Morning Consult

•Quinnipiac University National Poll on Sept 10 found 33% approve while 59% disapprove

•At the end of August, polling averages showed 41% approval and 56% disapproval. The lowest average of his second term was 39% on Aug. 25 and monthly data shows a low of 38.1% in May 2026

•Down from 48% at inauguration

Polarization is stark:

•Republicans 87% approve; Democrats 7% approve; Independents 34% approve

•The partisan gap between Republican (87%) and Democratic (7%) approval is the widest ever recorded at 80 points

•Independent approval down 14 points from 48% at inauguration, now below the 36% level that preceded Democrats' 41-seat wave in 2018. Republican base support at 87% is consistent with modern polarization and does not swing elections, while the 34% independent figure is described as politically decisive.

4. Key Issues Driving Politics

A September 2026 assessment of voter priorities found:

•When Americans are asked which issues are most important to their vote in 2026, inflation and the cost of living (26%) ranks first, followed by democracy and elections (15%), jobs and the economy (14%), and deportations/immigration enforcement (12%)

Affordability/Economy: Affordability became the main theme of the 2025 off-year elections, when Democrat Zohran Mamdani won New York City mayor and Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger won governorships in New Jersey and Virginia by surprisingly wide margins. Brookings analysts note affordability will be a key issue in 2026. Economic anxiety is linked to tariff-driven price increases with Q1 GDP at +2.0% but PCE inflation hitting 4.5% — raising stagflation concerns.

Immigration: Overall, 37% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of immigration policy, compared with 49% who disapprove. A national poll found immigration enforcement is driving voters away from Republicans ahead of 2026 midterms. Analysts note that while immigration remains a middle-tier priority (46% top priority vs 87% economy), it remains divisive.

Democracy and Elections: About 7 in 10 Americans mention at least one economic issue for government to prioritize in 2026, while immigration issues (44%) and health care (41%) also dominate.

5. 2026 Midterms Outlook

Elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, with all 435 seats in the U.S. House and 35 of 100 Senate seats (33 Class II seats + 2 special elections) contested to determine the 120th Congress, plus 39 gubernatorial races. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are described as literally determining congressional balance of power.

Current forecasts favor Democrats for the House:

•Pew Research: Democrats hold a 6 percentage point edge over Republicans among registered voters on the generic ballot (43% vs 37%)

•The generic ballot has responded to approval decline: Democrats now lead D+6.3

•Cornell political scientists forecast Democrats winning approximately 226 seats to Republicans' 209, though simulations show 206 to 258 Democratic seats are possible

•Other forecasts agree Democrats are favored to win the House, while the Senate is close to toss-up with Republicans holding a slight edge

•Historical models indicate even in a neutral environment where parties are tied on generic ballot, Republicans would be expected to lose about 13 seats in the House and about 5 in the Senate, giving Democrats control of both chambers

The current Republican majority in the House is narrow and a swing of only a handful of seats would flip control. A Democratic Senate majority is not the most likely scenario but is considered a possibility.

6. Election Integrity and Institutional Tensions

The 2026 elections are taking place amid federal investigations into the 2020 presidential election and voter registration efforts, including seizure of ballots from Fulton County, Georgia, and an FBI search of the Ohio Organizing Collaborative. Election experts and Democratic officials characterized investigations as efforts to intimidate officials and voters, while the Justice Department said searches were court-authorized.

Reports cited:

•Mid-decade redrawing of congressional districts for partisan gain, prosecution of political opponents, and push to change voting methods

•House passed SAVE America Act requiring proof of citizenship to register, which died in Senate in June after four Republicans joined Democrats to block it

•Justice Department demanded voter registration data from states, suing 23 states and D.C. that declined to provide unredacted rolls. A dismissal in California ruled demands violated privacy and would have chilling effect

•In January 2026, FBI seized approximately 600 boxes of ballots from Fulton County, with investigations expanding to Puerto Rico, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin

•Supreme Court case Louisiana v. Callais regarding Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act was predicted to allow Republicans to gain up to twelve House seats through redistricting in the Southeast by eliminating majority-minority districts.

Citations (3)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
2026 United States elections - Wikipedia
Backs: “As of September 11, 2026, the United States is in a period of unified Republican control but facing a highly competitive midterm election season marked by low presidential approval, narrow congressional majorities, and high polarization. 1. Executive Branch - Second Trump Term”
background, reference entry. Claim: US is in a period of unified Republican control with a competitive midterm season, low presidential approval, narrow majorities, and high polarization.
2bgov.comNews and mediaquality 0.68
Balance of Power in the U.S. House and Senate
Backs: “As of August 31, 2026: House: Republicans currently hold 218 seats while Democrats have 214.”
statistic, data page. Claim: As of August 31, 2026, House stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, two vacancies; Senate is 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats.
3uspollingdata.comData and tools
Trump Approval Rating 2026 — Monthly Tracker & Historical Comparison
Backs: “Public Opinion and Polarization. President Trump's approval is low by historical standards and steadily declined. September 2026 average: 37.9% approve / 58.2% disapprove (net -20.3) compiled from Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, Quinnipiac, Morning Consult”
statistic, data page. Claim: September 2026 Trump approval average of 37.9% approve and 58.2% disapprove, compiled from multiple pollsters.