Will AI create or take away more job opportunities?

Leans yesSays it is contested

Will AI add or erase jobs? I'll gather the latest research on how it's reshaping employment.

On balance, most major forecasts predict AI will both create and take away jobs — but create slightly more than it displaces — while transforming far more jobs than it eliminates.

The answer depends on timeframe, occupation and skill level:

1. The consensus forecast: Net creation, but large displacement

•The 2025 World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report states that while 92 million jobs might be eliminated by 2030, 170 million new roles will be created because of AI, resulting in a net gain of 78 million.

•A separate summary of the same report notes: According to the World Economic Forum, 170 million new jobs will be created by 2030 – but 92 million will also be displaced

•An earlier WEF projection used similar numbers: while 85 million jobs will face potential displacement through AI automation by 2030, approximately 97 million new employment positions will simultaneously emerge, yielding a net positive of approximately 12 million positions in that model.

In other words, forecasters do not see a 1-for-1 replacement, but a churn: labour markets evolve as technology raises productivity and creates new demand.

Other institutions emphasize the scale of exposure:

•International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated AI is likely to impact 60% of jobs in advanced economies, and 40% of jobs around the world. The IMF also anticipates that AI is set to affect almost 40% of jobs worldwide

•Goldman Sachs economists suggested that AI would put 300 million jobs at risk over the next decade, and Goldman Sachs estimated that generative AI alone could impact up to 300 million jobs globally

2. Which jobs are taken away vs. created?

Most at risk of decline:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects for 2024-2034 that increasing use of information technology (IT), including artificial intelligence (AI), will boost demand for workers in some occupations while other occupations may see their numbers decrease.

Occupations expected to decline due to AI-related productivity gains include:

> demand is expected to be limited for occupations such as procurement clerks; credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks; legal secretaries and administrative assistants; and customer service representatives. Employment of these occupations is projected to decline

Specific projections:

•Customer service representatives -5.5% (-153,700 jobs)

•Procurement clerks -8.7%

•Credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks -6.2%

•Legal secretaries -5.8%

Other reports flag telemarketers at 96.25% task replacement risk, bank tellers, cashiers, postal workers, data entry, accounting and administrative support as forecast to decline.

The World Economic Forum notes 41% of organizations expect to reduce their workforce before 2030 due to automation.

Most likely to be created / grow:

> Adoption of AI technologies, including generative AI tools, is expected to fuel strong job growth among computer and mathematical occupations

•Employment of data scientists is projected to increase 33.5 percent between 2024 and 2034

•Information security analysts 28.5%, actuaries 21.8%, operations research analysts 21.5%, computer and information research scientists 19.7%, software developers 15.8% ( +267,700 jobs)

More broadly, demand is projected to rise for STEM-related, healthcare, and other high-skill professions

New occupations themselves are already appearing: More than 1% of jobs required technical AI skills at the end of 2025, up from less than a quarter of a percent when ChatGPT launched in late 2022.

3. What's actually happening right now?

So far, displacement has been limited and uneven:

•Despite warnings of an imminent jobs apocalypse, there's scant evidence that AI has yet had any large-scale impact on the US labor market.

•Yale/Brookings analysis found nearly three years after ChatGPT's launch, employment patterns across industries remain largely unchanged.

•Research converges that what AI can do technically vastly exceeds what companies have deployed.

Impacts are concentrated on specific groups:

•Regression adjusted employment of early career workers in the most AI-exposed quintile of industry-state cells declined by 12% over the 10 quarters following the introduction of ChatGPT

•A group of 18 occupations flagged by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as exposed to AI, accounting for about 10 million jobs, saw a 0.2% drop in employment between May 2024 and May 2025

•Research indicates that while the potential for job loss exists in upwards of 20% of occupations as a result of AI-driven automation, the majority of jobs—likely four out of five—will result in a mixture of innovation and automation.

That is why many experts say:

> AI is not a job killer. It is a job transformer.

4. Bottom Line

•Short-term (next 1-3 years): More displacement than net creation for routine, repetitive, office-support, customer-service, and some entry-level white-collar tasks. Early-career workers are feeling it first.

•Medium-term (to 2030): Official projections expect more jobs created than destroyed — by about 78 million globally according to WEF — but 92 million workers will need different roles requiring different skills.

•Long-term: Whether AI is a net job creator depends on reskilling, education, and how companies choose to use AI to augment versus replace humans. The IMF warns AI will likely "worsen overall inequality" if safety nets and training don't keep up, with higher-skilled jobs seeing higher impact — meaning the gains will not be evenly shared.

Engineers, data scientists, AI trainers, cybersecurity, healthcare, and human-centric roles (creativity, empathy, leadership, skilled trades requiring physical dexterity) are expected to grow, while routine cognitive tasks are most automatable.

Citations (2)

1weforum.orgNonprofits and think tanks
The AI-driven workforce is here. How should your industry transform? | World Economic Forum
Backs: “The answer depends on timeframe, occupation and skill level: 1. The consensus forecast: Net creation, but large displacement. The 2025 World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report states that while 92 million jobs might be eliminated by 2030, 170 million new roles will be created because of AI, resulting in a net gain…”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: WEF 2025 report: 92 million jobs eliminated by 2030 but 170 million created, a net gain of 78 million.
2bls.govGovernment
Artificial intelligence, information technology, and employment, 2024–34 : The Economics Daily : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Backs: “Goldman Sachs economists suggested that AI would put 300 million jobs at risk over the next decade, and Goldman Sachs estimated that generative AI alone could impact up to 300 million jobs globally. 2. Which jobs are taken away vs. created? Most at risk of decline: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects for…”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: BLS projects 2024-34 AI and IT use will boost demand in some occupations while others, such as customer service and clerks, decline.