Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Most sources describe polarization as at record highs, while the USC snippet says today's levels are not an alarming anomaly against two centuries of data.
Yes, by most empirical measures, U.S. political polarization is worse now than at any point in recent decades—though it's more complicated when you compare it to the full sweep of American history.
The Case That It's Worse Than in Recent Memory
Affective polarization (partisan animosity) has surged. Research tracking how warmly Americans feel toward their own party versus the opposing party shows a dramatic shift: in 1978, the average American rated members of their own political party 27 points higher than members of the other party, but by 2016 that gap had grown to 45.9 points. More recent data shows this trend accelerating—between 2016 and 2020, affective polarization jumped from 41 to 52.2 degrees on the feeling thermometer scale.
Partisan hostility has become more personal and moralized. Pew Research Center polling reveals a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as more immoral than other Americans—up dramatically from 47% and 35% in 2016. As Pew put it in its landmark polarization study, Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan acrimony is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in recent history.
Congress itself has grown more ideologically polarized. Using NOMINATE scores that track how members of Congress vote, researchers found that following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.
The U.S. is polarizing faster than comparable democracies. A study putting America in global context found political polarization among Americans has grown rapidly in the last 40 years — more than in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia or Germany, with researchers concluding "the trend in the U.S. is indeed exceptional."
The divide is asymmetric. A 2024 Cambridge analysis of nearly four decades of survey data found that the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative, with divisions steadily rising starting in 2008.
Important Caveats
Historical context matters. Some political scientists caution against overstating today's polarization. Viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and other historically fraught periods—a reminder that the mid-20th century "consensus" era may have been the historical outlier, not today's divisions.
Perception may outpace reality. One researcher studying the phenomenon argues polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is, because political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions may be amplified by media and elite cues more than by genuine issue-based extremism among ordinary citizens.
There are signs of possible leveling off. The same Cambridge study noted this polarisation may have begun to level off during Biden's term, although it remains far higher than previous decades.
It's a global phenomenon too. Rising affective polarization isn't unique to America—in the past decade, political scientists have uncovered a similar trend across the globe, in well-established multiparty democracies like Switzerland, Denmark and New Zealand, and in emerging economies such as Bulgaria, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Poland.
Bottom Line
Compared to the past ~50 years (since reliable survey data began), polarization—especially emotional hostility between partisans—is clearly at historic highs in the U.S. Compared to the entire sweep of American history (including the Civil War era), it's less clear-cut, since earlier periods of extreme division existed. What does seem well-established is that the relatively low-polarization era of the mid-20th century was likely the anomaly, and the current divide represents both a return to and an intensification of older patterns of conflict.
Citations (13)
- U.S. is polarizing faster than other democracies, study finds | Brown University
Source excerpt: “They found that in 1978, the average American rated the members of their own political party 27 points higher than members of the other major party. ...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: In 1978 Americans rated their own party 27 points higher than the other party, growing to 45.9 points by 2016.
- Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity
Source excerpt: “More recent ANES data show that between 2016 and 2020, both warm feelings toward one’s own party and cold feelings toward the opposition increased eve...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Between 2016 and 2020, affective polarization jumped from 41 to 52.2 on the feeling thermometer.
- The 'Great Divide': Understanding US Political Polarization | Syracuse University Today
Source excerpt: “Pew Research Center polling reveals a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats ... Diane Stirling Oct. 23, ...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: In 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the other party as more immoral, up from 47% and 35% in 2016.
- Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center
Source excerpt: “Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan acrimony is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in recent ...”
attribution, article, points to yes. Claim: Pew found Republicans and Democrats more divided, with deeper partisan acrimony, than at any point in recent history.
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow duri...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Congress is more polarized by NOMINATE scores than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.
- U.S. is polarizing faster than other democracies, study finds | Brown University
Source excerpt: “PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] — Political polarization among Americans has grown rapidly in the last 40 years — more than in Canada, the United ...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: American polarization grew rapidly over 40 years, more than in Canada, the UK, Australia or Germany.
- U.S. is polarizing faster than other democracies, study finds | Brown University
Source excerpt: ““We found that the trend in the U.S. is indeed exceptional.” ”
attribution, article, points to yes. Claim: Researchers concluded the trend in the U.S. is indeed exceptional.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: “Based on issues surveyed, the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 than 1988, while the right was only 2.8% more conservative.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: “However, starting in 2008 – the year of the financial crisis, Obama taking office, and the launch of Apple’s App Store and iPhone 3G – divisions acros...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Divisions have risen steadily starting in 2008.
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Some political scientists have pointed out that viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries todays levels of polarization are n...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Some political scientists say today's polarization is not an alarming anomaly compared to the last two centuries, including the slavery era.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: “· However, De-Wit argues that polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is. “Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but t...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: One researcher argues US polarization can feel much worse than it is, amplified by media and elite cues.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: “The study, which goes up to 2024, shows that this polarisation may have begun to level off during Biden’s term, although it remains far higher than pr...”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Polarization may have begun leveling off during Biden's term, though it remains far higher than previous decades.
- Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity
Source excerpt: “But in the past decade, political scientists have uncovered a similar trend across the globe — not just in countries with two invariably dominating po...”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Rising affective polarization is global, appearing in multiparty democracies and emerging economies.