China is considered by the U.S. government to be the primary long-term strategic competitor to the United States, but whether and to what degree it is a "threat" depends on which U.S. interests are being discussed.
The current official U.S. position, as stated in the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and assessments from the Department of Defense and Office of the Director of National Intelligence, describes China as a "pacing challenge" - not an imminent military adversary like during the Cold War, but a power with the intent and increasingly the capability to reshape the international order in ways the U.S. sees as opposed to its interests.
Here is how that competition is viewed across different domains:
1. Economic and Trade Interests
•View that it is a threat: Concerns include unbalanced trade practices, state subsidies for Chinese companies, restricted market access for U.S. firms in China, forced technology transfer, and intellectual property theft. U.S. officials have cited these as harming U.S. industries and jobs.
•View that it is interdependent: China is also the second-largest economy in the world, a major holder of U.S. debt, and a critical part of global supply chains. Total U.S.-China trade was over $575 billion in 2024, and disruption to that relationship would also harm the U.S. economy. Many U.S. companies rely on manufacturing in and sales to China.
2. Technology and National Security
•View that it is a threat: U.S. concerns focus on competition for leadership in advanced technologies such as semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, and 5G/6G. Concerns also include cyber espionage, state-sponsored hacking, and data security risks related to Chinese tech platforms. This has led to U.S. export controls on advanced chips and restrictions on companies like Huawei.
•View that it is competition: Others frame this as technological and industrial competition rather than a direct security threat, arguing that competition can drive innovation on both sides.
3. Military and Geopolitical Interests
•View that it is a threat: The Pentagon points to China's rapid military modernization, expansion of its navy, development of hypersonic and nuclear weapons, militarization of islands in the South China Sea, and pressure on Taiwan. Taiwan is a major point of tension due to the U.S. policy of supporting Taiwan's self-defense while maintaining a "One China" policy. China's claims in the South China Sea also conflict with U.S. interests in freedom of navigation.
•View that conflict is not inevitable: China has not fought a foreign war in over 40 years and its foreign policy has largely focused on economic influence rather than direct military intervention. Many analysts argue deterrence has worked and that both powers have strong incentives to avoid direct military conflict.
4. Global Influence
•View that it is a threat: Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, development lending, and influence in international institutions like the UN, the U.S. argues China is seeking to build an alternative model of governance and expand its geopolitical influence, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
•View that it is normal great-power behavior: Others argue this is expected behavior for a rising power seeking to secure resources, markets, and diplomatic partners, similar to what other major powers do.
5. Areas of Shared Interest
The U.S. and China also cooperate or need to coordinate on issues where interests overlap, such as global financial stability, climate change, preventing nuclear proliferation regarding North Korea and Iran, and public health.
In summary, most U.S. administrations in the last decade, both Republican and Democratic, have concluded that China poses a significant challenge to U.S. economic, technological, and security interests, while also being an unavoidable economic partner that cannot be fully isolated without major costs to the U.S. and global economy.