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GPT-5Sep 7, 2026openai/gpt-5-2025-08-07
Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Leans yesSays it is contested
Short answer: In the United States, yes—by several key measures polarization today is higher than at any time in the modern (post‑World War II) era, though the mid‑19th century Civil War period was more extreme in terms of open conflict. Internationally, trends vary by country.
What the evidence shows (mainly U.S.):
•Political elites (Congress): Roll‑call voting data (e.g., DW‑NOMINATE scores) indicate the parties are farther apart—and have less ideological overlap—than at any point since the late 19th century. Most of the movement has been Republicans shifting right and Democrats shifting left to a lesser extent.
•The public’s views: On policy, average voters haven’t flown to opposite extremes as much as elites. There’s more “sorting” (liberals in the Democratic Party, conservatives in the Republican Party) and fewer cross‑pressured voters than mid‑century, but broad issue extremity has risen only modestly.
•Affective polarization: Dislike and distrust of the other party have climbed steadily since the 1980s. People are more likely to see the opposing party as a threat and less willing to socialize or cooperate across party lines. This “us vs. them” dynamic is at or near record highs in survey data.
•Media and nationalization: Cable news, nationalized campaigns, and elite cues have been strong drivers; social media amplifies but is not the sole cause. Gerrymandering and geographic sorting contribute, but they explain only part of the pattern.
Historical context:
•More polarized than the unusually low-polarization mid‑20th century (roughly 1940s–1970s), when both parties contained significant ideological diversity.
•Comparable to or exceeding Gilded Age levels in Congress.
•Not as violent or system‑breaking as the 1850s–1860s, when polarization culminated in secession and civil war.
Beyond the U.S.:
•Many democracies have seen rising affective polarization and partisan sorting, though the degree varies. Two‑party systems tend to show starker divides than multiparty systems.
Bottom line: Compared to most of the past 100 years, polarization—especially among political elites and in how partisans feel about each other—is higher now. It isn’t unprecedented in U.S. history if you include the Civil War era, but it is at or near modern highs. If you had a country other than the U.S. in mind, tell me which and I can tailor the answer.