Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Are we really more divided than ever? I'll pull the latest research to compare today's polarization with past eras.

Political polarization is worse than it has been in the recent past, but not necessarily worse than it has been in the distant past - it depends on what you measure and what time period you compare to.

1. Compared to the last 50-70 years, yes - it is at a historic high

By multiple measures, current polarization is at its highest level in modern American history:

Longitudinal analyses demonstrate that, across all four types of indicators, affective polarization has markedly increased in the American electorate over the last few decades.

Researchers distinguish between these types: legislative polarization (how far apart elected officials vote), affective polarization (how much ordinary partisans dislike each other), and geographic sorting. Two of them are at record levels for the modern era.

2. Compared to the 19th century, no - the Civil War era was more divided

Historians largely reject the claim that America has never been more divided:

> “The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War,” he says. “In the mid-19th Century, differences were so profound representatives carried weapons into Congress.”

> It has become common to say that the United States in 2020 is more divided politically and culturally than at any other point in our national past... current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century.

Historian Michael Morris makes the same point, rejecting the common claim that America has never been more politically divided, pointing to the Civil War era as a far more severe rift: Lincoln won with under 40% of the popular vote, seven states seceded before he was even inaugurated, and outright war followed weeks later.

The Gilded Age of the late 1800s is considered the closest modern parallel. During the Gilded Age of the late 1800s, America was similarly individualistic, starkly unequal, fiercely polarized, and deeply fragmented, just as it is today. DW-NOMINATE scores show today's gap only recently surpassed the previous peak from 1895.

In short: polarization today is not a new normal, but a return - after a unusually bipartisan mid-20th century low in the 1940s-1970s - to levels of partisan combat last seen in the late 19th century. It is worse than anything most living Americans have experienced, but American history has seen a more severe, violent division that led to civil war.

Why it feels worse now

Even if not the most divided ever, several factors make current polarization feel more intense:

So if your reference point is the last 50 years - yes, it is measurably worse. If your reference point is 160 years - no, the 1850s-1860s was worse.